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Old 04-05-2020, 07:55 AM   #1
Not to Worry
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Default When does it end? How can it?

Below are what Birx and Fauci said yesterday. The logical question is when can this virus be contained? Once we re-open the country it seems like the infection rates would climb again. All they are saying and trying to do is blunt the curve. Seems logical to me that until we have a vaccine we will continue to live in a apocalyptic world. Trumps replies seem totally out of touch with reality.

"Dr. Birx: (01:30:00)
We’re watching them because they are starting to go on that upside of the curve. We’re hoping and believing that if people mitigate strongly, the work that they did over the last two weeks will blunt that curve, and they won’t have the same upward slope and peak that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and part of Rhode Island are having. So the next two weeks are extraordinarily important, and that’s why I think you’ve heard from Dr. Fauci, from myself, from the President and the Vice President, that this is the moment to do everything that you can on the presidential guidelines. This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store and not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe. That means everybody doing the six feet distancing, washing your hands.
Donald Trump: (01:30:56)
Go ahead. [inaudible 01:30:57].
Dr. Fauci: (01:30:57)
So, I mean ditto to everything that Dr. Birx said, but also to emphasize why it’s so important to do that because we’re looking at three or four really key hotspots that are still going up. It’s absolutely essential that the ones that are down at that lower level that Dr. Burke showed the other day, those communities where they’re still going up, we’ve got to make sure we don’t have multiple waves of peaks. That’s going to be the answer to the question of when we can start pulling back because if you keep having multiple peaks and different waves, that’s going to make it very difficult."
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:24 AM   #2
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I think you’re right. It is going to be a very different world for a year or so until there is a vaccine or proven treatment. This is not an issue for just a few weeks. If there are just a few cases floating around, and all things go back to normal, we end up back in the same position as today in a matter of weeks. My guess is after all of this peaks with the current distancing, some businesses and restaurants will reopen and there will be a lot more emphasis on contact tracing as cases arise. This will be much easier in places like New Hampshire, as opposed to New York City. But many people will not feel comfortable going out or returning to business as usual.

We will see what happens in China in just a few weeks, as it is now opening back up.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:51 AM   #3
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All they can do is keep warning us. It's up to us to heed their warnings and stay home as much as possible.
Some people still think it's "fake news" and their freedoms are being invaded.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:11 AM   #4
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The CDC has a number of timelines for all the past pandemics, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...pandemics.html

Gives some insights of durations, etc. There certainly have been a lot more than I realized or remember all with a large impact. Helps keep things in perspective as we managed through all of these, not without significant loss of life though.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:15 AM   #5
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Default marginalizing the media

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All they can do is keep warning us. It's up to us to heed their warnings and stay home as much as possible.
Some people still think it's "fake news" and their freedoms are being invaded.
I think all dictators or want to be dictators start off by marginalizing the media. There is accurate news out there and sure sometimes you have to delve deeper into the story understand what is opinion versus fact. I think we all know Fox and MSNBC have a bias.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:20 AM   #6
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You have to take under consideration that the President and VP are not subject matter experts on this, this is why they have brought in Drs Birx and Fauci to be advisers and help with establishing guidelines for everyone to follow as well as relay to the public information that is accurate and meaningful. Both seem to be very smart and call it as they see it, even if it is at odds with what the President says. The country as a whole is indebted to individuals like this considering the world we live in right now with so much misinformation out there.

One thing is for certain the feds can't keep printing money and can't be spending trillions upon trillions of "dollars" indefinitely. At some point the economic engine of this country needs to be restarted. How that happens remains to be seen but make no mistake about it, the very survival of this country is at stake if this doesn't start happening. Trump like him or no knows this and why I'm sure he will be looking for ways to facilitate that.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:26 AM   #7
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My roommate from college currently lives in Beijing, I wouldn't really say they are returning to normal. Here is a video from about two weeks ago after being in quarantine for two months. He and his wife are still staying in. This isn't over for a long time....

https://youtu.be/AJfi1T8F4BM
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:46 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Not to Worry View Post
I think all dictators or want to be dictators start off by marginalizing the media. There is accurate news out there and sure sometimes you have to delve deeper into the story understand what is opinion versus fact. I think we all know Fox and MSNBC have a bias.
I think your bias is showing...
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:52 AM   #9
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I read in today's paper that Italy is proposing lifting the quarantine only for those that have the covid-19 antibodies. Assuming that people who have gotten and survived covid-19 carry the antibodies and cannot be re infected. This may be the only sensible solution until a vaccine or treatment can be found.
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:26 AM   #10
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Default Caution- foul language comedy- G. Carlin

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All they can do is keep warning us. It's up to us to heed their warnings and stay home as much as possible.
Some people still think it's "fake news" and their freedoms are being invaded.
Remind you of anyone on this forum? Probably get kicked off for this!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:49 AM   #11
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I don't think anyone can yet predict when this is over. It may be a first 'wave', who knows?

I've being trying to find factual data or facts, but it's hard to find as everyone has their opinion and many are politically or financially jaded.

From the data viewed from the link below, which seems to be used by gov and media, it seems it's going to last into July as a minimum:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

You can drill into NH and see the predictions.

I'm not using this data to see resources needed (as it's intended) but to try to understand how long this may last. Most of the current curves seem to end about the beginning of July. This may be a moving target as they gather more real data, vs their predictions. I know that no one can predict this yet as we're dependent on others staying home.

Unfortunately we must go shopping for food. so there is some exposure to all of us at one time or another.

I also think it will get better when we can all take an anti-body test to see if we've had it and recovered, then those people can safely go shopping, work, etc. Of course, no one has proven if once you have recovered, how long (if any) is a period of immunity?
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Old 04-05-2020, 05:18 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by JEEPONLY View Post
Remind you of anyone on this forum? Probably get kicked off for this!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo
Hope you don't get bounced...that was pretty funny : )
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Old 04-05-2020, 05:32 PM   #13
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Hope you don't get bounced...that was pretty funny : )
Yea, I just don't know about using the same brush on all 4 areas though😄
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Old 04-05-2020, 06:41 PM   #14
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My skeptical mind say when they have a vaccine, will we really know it’s safe? Or is just something rushed to market ......
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:51 PM   #15
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Default Conundrum

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My skeptical mind say when they have a vaccine, will we really know it’s safe? Or is just something rushed to market ......
I agree. Die by vaccine or Covid
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:35 PM   #16
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Default vaccine

If there is a vaccine, how will that set with the alt. right anti-vaxers? can they be appeased coming from even agent orange.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:51 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by MAXUM View Post
You have to take under consideration that the President and VP are not subject matter experts on this, this is why they have brought in Drs Birx and Fauci to be advisers
Trump does not listen to his own advisors and he doesn't want us to listen to them either. From today's New York Times:

"At a White House coronavirus briefing Sunday, President Trump continued to push hydroxychloroquine against the advice of doctors and health experts who say its efficacy against the coronavirus is unproven. . . . When a reporter asked Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to weigh in on the question of using hydroxychloroquine, Mr. Trump stopped him from answering. As the reporter noted that Dr. Fauci was the president’s medical expert, Mr. Trump made it clear he did not want the doctor to answer.

“He’s answered the question 15 times,” the president said, stepping toward the lectern where Mr. Fauci was standing."
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:39 PM   #18
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Default It’s in the interpretation, IMHO

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Trump does not listen to his own advisors and he doesn't want us to listen to them either. From today's New York Times:

"At a White House coronavirus briefing Sunday, President Trump continued to push hydroxychloroquine against the advice of doctors and health experts who say its efficacy against the coronavirus is unproven. . . . When a reporter asked Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to weigh in on the question of using hydroxychloroquine, Mr. Trump stopped him from answering. As the reporter noted that Dr. Fauci was the president’s medical expert, Mr. Trump made it clear he did not want the doctor to answer.

“He’s answered the question 15 times,” the president said, stepping toward the lectern where Mr. Fauci was standing."
I choose not to engage in the political side of things, but we have been fairly engrossed in the press conferences relating to the Coronavirus, which is pretty rampant down here in Florida. I sometimes cringe at some of the things the President says, but my interpretation of his comments on the use of hydrochloroquine is that it has been shown to be useful in treating many cases of the virus, and many doctors are prescribing it despite the fact that these haven’t been many scientific studies to prove or disprove its value. If I were severely ill with the virus and my options were few, and they wanted to try that medication, I hope that my attitude would be to “Go ahead; what do I have to lose?” I think that’s the attitude of the President. In the case of this awful pandemic, there isn’t time to wait years to get sufficient data. For what it’s worth, that’s my take.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:22 AM   #19
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Default First responders ?

What if you are a Firelighter or any Public safety officer would you like access to the medication knowing you are going to be exposed to the virus ?
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Old 04-06-2020, 08:17 AM   #20
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I have been on the Forum for many years and it has been an important part of my life. In particular, I learn things from experts by training/ experience that I knew nothing about....boating, engines, agriculture, government...even politics.

The subject I want to discuss is important and I know about it. I won’t discuss politics except one statement at the end and, even that, is not really political. I have never worked for the pharmaceutical companies.

Modern medicine is not a science...it is an art, dealing with people is a skill. The advances in medicine have been spectacular over the past 150 years. Some of today’s treatments would have been unthinkable to me when I was a medical student.

The reason for this success is that medicine has been built on the scientific method. And as far as the medications we use, the basis of this success is the double blind study. And some of the medication disasters have been largely because the studies have been poorly done or not done at all.

All of you know the basics. You believe a drug will cure headaches. You take a hundred volunteers, you divide them into 2 equal groups and give the medication to one group and a similar appearing pill without the med to the other group and you see if it “works.” Does the real pill group get better than the placebo group? The technique is much more complicated than this but this is the basic idea. And the placebo effect is REAL. Even in terminal cancer studies, as many as 10 % of patients who get placebo get better compared to untreated patients. In acne studies the placebo rate can reach 40%.

Anyway, to the point. A lot of medical advancements have been by accident...insulin, penicillin,etc. When patients have devasatiing infections they usually die of and they are cured with penicillin you don’t need a placebo.

Let’s get real. There is a lot of vital information about Covid 19 we do not know. We know that the vast majority of those who get it recover. It seems to be that older people are more likely to die than younger but still most recover. This is important; if everyone died, then a new drug that worked might not require the same testing.

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have been around a long time. They are relatively safe. I have used hydroxychloroquine in lupus patients always concerned about the serious visual side effects. The observations of their possible effectiveness is interesting and MUST be pursued. But we do need a control group because of the high natural cure rate of the disease. As the drug and (unfortunately) lots of patients are available a good trial can be done relatively quickly. So,why shouldn’t people just take it, like the President suggests.

1. We still need to know if it really works. If it doesn’t we will have lost precious time and huge resources just “trying it.”

2. Although it is relatively safe, we do not know if it is safe in Covid 19 patients. Sometimes drugs work in some diseases but make others worse.

3. Again, in this largely self curable disease, we don’t want millions of people taking it who do not need it.

4. The idea of taking it to prevent the disease has, at present, even less evidence that it works.

A quick word on vaccines...we do know how to make them but they also need to be tested to see if they work (few do 100%). And new vaccines may have very unexpected consequences and serious side effects.

Finally, the politics. The President has every right to overrule his advisors in any field, military, legal, etc. It is ok to,use his “gut.” If u don’t like it, don’t elect him.

BUT, he knows very little about science and medicine. He has very good medical advisors whom the people trust. To me, it is just wrong, scientifically and ethically to keep promoting unproven treatments. And if it works, and probably 90% of patients will not need it, then encouraging the public to get their docs to write a prescription may make it harder for the ones who need it.

I don’t care if he wears a face mask. And if I were president with the ability to test everyone around me all,the time I probably wouldn’t wear one either. But touting unproven therapy IS a different issue.

Finally, just for the record I had read about the positive study a few days before the President described the “game changer.”
I have not written a prescription for myself or family.
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Old 04-06-2020, 09:15 AM   #21
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Default What about the grocery supply chain?

I appreciate all of the details on the medical issues that are communicated in the President's daily press briefings, but for the life of me, I cannot understand why there has been little, if any, discussion on the grocery supply issues? There has been little focus on this by the President and by the press. For God's sake, stop asking questions about the impeachment and ask Trump when we are going to get our toilet paper.

Is it because we are facing a food supply shortage and they don't want to freak us out?
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Old 04-06-2020, 09:42 AM   #22
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One addition to New's excellent post--The other "side effect" to promoting an unproven cure is that the medicine will not be there for those who will actually need it--lupus patients in this case--or those who should be first in line when it is proven--the health care workers on the front lines as dva points out.
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:03 AM   #23
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Question Which Zinc?

In other discussions, the talk was of a hydroxychloroquine-zinc cocktail.(Not just hydroxychloroquine).

When COVID-19 first appeared, I bought some
supplemental Zinc. Now I learn there are three different Zinc derivatives.

Which would be best?
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:52 AM   #24
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Thumbs up ..... Cascades Tissue Products, Quebec!

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For God's sake, stop asking questions about the impeachment and ask Trump when we are going to get our toilet paper.
A large Canadien/Canadian maker of toilet paper www.pro.cascades.com/en based in Quebec where it cuts down huge Canadien pine trees and reduces them down to rolls of white toilet paper has trucks that can regularly be seen on Route 93, presumably loaded with toilet paper.

Cascades Transport, Kingsey Falls, Quebec http://www.cascades.com/fr/produits-...ices/transport ..... the truck has a large roll of toilet paper shown on the outside of their 53' van tractors, and toilet paper truck design art flowing down the length of the tractor and trailer.

Hey there Cascades-Quebec ....... truck it on down here to central New Hampshire ...... toilet paper on the roll ...... O CANADA!
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:03 PM   #25
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I cannot understand why there has been little, if any, discussion on the grocery supply issues?
Many of the grocery store shelves are bare / have noticeable empty areas in the grocery stores out west: not just TP or hand sanitizer.

There is definitely a negative effect from the pandemic on the grocery supply chain.
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Old 04-06-2020, 03:52 PM   #26
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Yea, I just don't know about using the same brush on all 4 areas though😄
Use two and choose!
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Old 04-06-2020, 04:38 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by lakewinnie View Post
I appreciate all of the details on the medical issues that are communicated in the President's daily press briefings, but for the life of me, I cannot understand why there has been little, if any, discussion on the grocery supply issues? There has been little focus on this by the President and by the press. For God's sake, stop asking questions about the impeachment and ask Trump when we are going to get our toilet paper.

Is it because we are facing a food supply shortage and they don't want to freak us out?
We are not facing a shortage but virtually every person in this country is buying more, in many cases much more, of many items than they normally do.

The supply chain needs to catch back up, but also remember that the chain is weaker due to illness and businesses being shut down.
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:39 PM   #28
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There a lot of question about when will this end? What will happen, when we come out of quarantine? etc. etc. etc.

Really folks, people need to stop hypothesizing, We are living in this moment, and no one, even the brightest minds on the subject really have a clue. All you have to do is listen to them speak, and think about the words they are using.

My guess is we will be stuck in this holding pattern, of most people working from home for while. Yes slowly they are going to have to let restaurants open back up, and life return to normal. But I think there will be a hand on the trigger for a while, and when they feel there is a chance that we are going to see another outbreak they will pull the trigger and send as all back home again. I don't think when that happens that it will be country wide again. I think there will be a more isolated approach.

As Long as I remain productive, I am guessing I am not going to be back in the office, probably until June or July given what I am seeing. Unfortunately I know many people aren't as lucky as I am....
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:31 AM   #29
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Unhappy It's Sad, but...

We are 14 days into self isolation and it’s really upsetting me to see my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks. It breaks my heart to see her like this.

I have thought very hard how i can cheer her up. I have even considered letting her in... but rules are rules.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:19 AM   #30
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We are not facing a shortage but virtually every person in this country is buying more, in many cases much more, of many items than they normally do.

The supply chain needs to catch back up, but also remember that the chain is weaker due to illness and businesses being shut down.
Yes. Many businesses are shut down. Only "essential" businesses are open.

Here in New Hampshire Governor Sununu has proclaimed 27 Emergency Orders. And they keep coming. Other states may be doing the same which does impact the supply chain. Sometimes with unintended consequences.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:00 AM   #31
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Default Return to Normal

Four benchmarks for a return to normalcy

Researchers recently outlined some markers:

1. Hospitals must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. That means having adequate beds, ventilators and staff.

2. The authorities must be able to test everyone who has symptoms, and to get reliable results quickly. That would be well more than 750,000 tests a week in the U.S.

3. Health agencies must be able to monitor confirmed cases, trace contacts of the infected, and have at-risk people go into isolation or quarantine.

4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days, because it can take that long for symptoms to appear.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:30 AM   #32
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We are 14 days into self isolation and it’s really upsetting me to see my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks. It breaks my heart to see her like this.

I have thought very hard how i can cheer her up. I have even considered letting her in... but rules are rules.
I hear you--it's tough.

I spend half the day in pajamas, watching videos, napping. And the rest of my time is just wasted...
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:00 AM   #33
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I know some people, with this new found spare time, picking up the Good Book, blowing the dust off, and doing some reading. Puts things in perspective
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Old 04-07-2020, 12:11 PM   #34
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Default Return to normalcy

[/B]
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Four benchmarks for a return to normalcy

Researchers recently outlined some markers:

1. Hospitals must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. That means having adequate beds, ventilators and staff.

2. The authorities must be able to test everyone who has symptoms, and to get reliable results quickly. That would be well more than 750,000 tests a week in the U.S.

3. Health agencies must be able to monitor confirmed cases, trace contacts of the infected, and have at-risk people go into isolation or quarantine.

4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days, because it can take that long for symptoms to appear.
The above is true from purely a medical perspective, but I would add one more.... a prophylactic drug of some sort. Whether this is Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine or something else will remain to be seen. Given that, we can't wait for the "normal" complete drug assessment to be completed since there are people dying daily. And as I would be assessing for myself in that case, "what do I have to lose" in taking a long-available drug. At least one Democrat Congresswomen is eternally grateful for the President shedding light on these drugs.

Outside of the medical issues here, this is truly a classic risk assessment evaluation that must be performed to determine when we start to return to normal. While Faucci and Birx are focused on minimizing deaths from the virus, there are other very real risks in keeping the government shut down, many that will also increase deaths. In a risk assessment model, you weigh probabilities vs. consequence. If something has a low probability of occurring, we can live with a bit more sever consequence. If it is a high probability of occurring, we need to reduce the consequence. Right now this virus has given us high probability and high consequence. The quarantines have aimed at reducing the probability but we need to focus on reducing the consequences to be able to ease up on the quarantine. A vaccine would do that but that is at least a year out. If we had a prophylactic drug available to be taken, or a quick cure, or a prior-exposure test, or all three were available, the risk would drop down to minimal and we could get back to work.

The bottom line is that the President has a very tough set of decisions to make and it can not be totally the call of the doctors. This is an unprecedented complex medical and economic situation and there is very little history to use to climb out of it. But rest assured, whatever decision he makes will be questioned, right or wrong.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:19 PM   #35
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Question "In the Works"...

Maybe not too far off...

A COVID-19 vaccine that "piggy-backs" on the vaccine for rabies.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/jefferso...-philadelphia/
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:03 PM   #36
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[/B]

The above is true from purely a medical perspective, but I would add one more.... a prophylactic drug of some sort. Whether this is Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine or something else will remain to be seen. Given that, we can't wait for the "normal" complete drug assessment to be completed since there are people dying daily. And as I would be assessing for myself in that case, "what do I have to lose" in taking a long-available drug. At least one Democrat Congresswomen is eternally grateful for the President shedding light on these drugs.

Outside of the medical issues here, this is truly a classic risk assessment evaluation that must be performed to determine when we start to return to normal. While Faucci and Birx are focused on minimizing deaths from the virus, there are other very real risks in keeping the government shut down, many that will also increase deaths. In a risk assessment model, you weigh probabilities vs. consequence. If something has a low probability of occurring, we can live with a bit more sever consequence. If it is a high probability of occurring, we need to reduce the consequence. Right now this virus has given us high probability and high consequence. The quarantines have aimed at reducing the probability but we need to focus on reducing the consequences to be able to ease up on the quarantine. A vaccine would do that but that is at least a year out. If we had a prophylactic drug available to be taken, or a quick cure, or a prior-exposure test, or all three were available, the risk would drop down to minimal and we could get back to work.

The bottom line is that the President has a very tough set of decisions to make and it can not be totally the call of the doctors. This is an unprecedented complex medical and economic situation and there is very little history to use to climb out of it. But rest assured, whatever decision he makes will be questioned, right or wrong.


These 5 things make sense. One thing to keep in mind on the hydroxychloroquine. I have not seen even anecdotal data on efficacy (such as, out of 100 people given the drug...). But if this is given to a few thousand people likely to be exposed, the data will pile up very fast to suggest it is effective or just a wish.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:04 PM   #37
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I have been thinking about the whole “end” issue and the reports of several of the hot spots supposedly reaching there peaks in the next several weeks. It seems that these hot spots are located in around some of our largest cities/economic areas. There are also quite a few areas which really haven’t been hit yet. (And I really believe it is not “if” it is “when.”) If day NYC/CT/NJ starts to recover and opens up their economy how are they going to prevent people from areas that are not yet peaking from entering the area and starting things all over again? Is this the rebound I am hearing about?


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Old 04-07-2020, 09:31 PM   #38
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Default Don't Forget the Big Picture

"When Will This End?"

Or... "HOW will this end?"

Go to YouTube to look at videos from all different media outlets worldwide. Read the comment threads (skim or speed-read) to gauge the general attitude of the viewers.

Apply knowledge of world history, particularly past crises.

The US isn't the only country full of upset citizens. The Brits are just as divided. Police and soldiers enforcing quarantine in many other countries are doing a better job angering the masses and abusing power than they are at accomplishing the matter at hand. It was to be expected. This situation is every control freak's wildest dreams.

That sort of thing, and other problems like the spike in domestic abuse reported by UK and French news, are sending the world's masses into a mental health tailspin.

A very large number of people have suddenly become economically hopeless. Psychologists believe that has caused a bunch of new domestic abuse in addition to toxic relationships that existed before.

History says that when the world's masses suddenly lose all the things they enjoyed, become angry, opinionated and divided, economically hopeless and abusive, crowds become desperate enough to make instant celebrities out of really dark characters like Hitler, and the whole chaotic world mess turns to warfare.

German news yesterday reported their country blamed the US for "piracy" of a shipment of masks. The headline was, "International Solidarity Breaks Down."

Meanwhile the comment thread on a Sky News Australia video was lengthy and almost entirely negative opinions on the WHO, China, and US ties to both.

Note: I do NOT offer any of this post as an opinion. I do NOT make this post to express a stance. It is important to point out "what is," whether it's dark or light (and unfortunately it looks dark) and then we apply world history to get an idea of where similar situations have led in the past.

The global stress from COVID-19 could very easily lead to war. At the very least it appears headed toward revolution in a handful of places. In the US, there is a high likelihood of court cases regarding Constitutional Rights vs. Disease Prevention. No one's stance on the issue can prevent those cases from happening if there are lawyers out there who want to pursue it. Then it gets news coverage, people polarize, and who knows?

We all know what bitterly divisive issues have caused lately. Two groups, each holding picket signs and shouting, start throwing things at each other and then the riot police move in.... then copycat behavior breaks out in other places. As with a tornado watch, "the ingredients are all there for a violent situation."

Run the tabletop exercise:

"If this domino falls, what is the usual outcome based on history and human nature?" [fill in the blank.]

"What is the most likely consequence of that?" [fill in the blank]

Repeat process.

Your tabletop exercise and mine could easily produce different results, because that happens. All results based on valid steps are worth considering, with preparation priority running from "most likely outcome" to "least likely but possible and worth remembering."

One thing is for sure: This crisis IS producing a lot of psychological effects in a very large number of people that will be long-lasting. Those who get PTSD from unresolved grief or seeing too much sadness may take years to re-achieve their previous level of functioning. NH declared PTSD a "work related injury" last July (it's eligible for benefits) and many other places have done that also. That will be a major expense for some time to come. PTSD doesn't go away overnight, if at all.

The masses will not be the same, mentally, when they come out of hiding. Most peoples' pulse rates have only just returned to normal after 3 weeks of living in a sudden whirlwind apocalypse movie. As an EMT and a storm chaser I've seen horrible stuff before, and I recently suffered horrible unexpected loss (my only sibling, with whom I was close.) That conditioned me to darkness, and it still took me about a week to process the sudden new apocalypse movie around me. For the first 3 days there were times in my waking hours when I actually thought it was a dream, just for a nanosecond.

Now, if that's me and I was pre-conditioned to darkness and horrible sudden loss, I shudder to think about where many others are at, people who aren't acquainted with darkness. Today I spoke with a friend in Boston who IS darkness-acquainted, and he'd heard from people in his life who AREN'T. He said he's been getting continuous calls from them, looking for his shoulder to lean on.

That's not a good sign, if it indicates where the masses are at. From all I've learned about psychology and the effects of rapid change & loss during my journey since 2014, I'm 99% confident most people won't be the same this summer. Some are going to need more time than others, and some are going to discover some new issues by breaking down unexpectedly.

Some people will think they have no issues, they'll get back to what they know (if they can) and in the middle of it they'll have a panic attack without knowing what a panic attack is. They'll end up at the ER thinking it's a heart attack, and they'll come out with a psych referral and some prescriptions they never thought they'd need.

Keep your eyes on human psychology at individual level x population. It's going to be an interesting aftermath.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:29 AM   #39
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Thumbs up Anecdotal--but Compelling...

"Dr. Oz" has his own website, and describes his successes with HCQ (used in Lupus treatment).

'Then interviews a French doctor with his successes.

https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/04...cted-covid-19/
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:43 AM   #40
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Unhappy HCQ Banned by Michigan's Governor...

Quote:
”If [Trump] had not been pushing it on a federal level, I would have not had access to it, and I would not be alive today,” she said.

After one doctor denied her request for the drug, the Detroit Democrat turned to Dr. Mohammed Arsiwala.


Arsiwala runs Michigan Urgent Care and says he's had 56 COVID-19 positive patients at nine Detroit-area urgent care facilities. Those who are too sick must be treated in the hospital, but 12 of them, including Whitsett, have been treated with a combination of an antibiotic and hydroxychloroquine". (HCQ).
https://www.abc12.com/content/news/D...569461601.html
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:00 AM   #41
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Maybe COVID-19 will be the cure for TDS ?
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Old 04-08-2020, 07:58 AM   #42
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I've not seen this posted, but the NH numbers are interesting: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...r-state-s-peak

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Old 04-08-2020, 08:20 AM   #43
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Default Half Empty or Half Full?

Canis paints a bleak and possible scenario, but there are positive alternatives to consider. The peaks should be over in a few weeks and in NH may never overwhelm the system. Many tests of different treatments and vaccines are underway and bound to produce something that works, soon. The forecast models are being revised downward, probably reflecting the benefit of social distancing. And, summer is coming for the northern hemisphere.

Many things will recover quickly, some more slowly. The mental trauma that we are all experiencing to some degree will pass for most, but the scars will not disappear. Some permanent changes will be ingrained in world cultures. Preparedness will again become important, along with willingness to trust in science. Just-in-time manufacturing is going to get a second look. Essential services too.

The biggest changes will be in education and medicine. While people working in these categories are learning on the fly, new ways of educating and taking care of people remotely will be figured out. The methods that work won't go away. Our schools will stream world-class instructors to augment lessons. Our health care can be delivered remotely for many interactions, meaning lower costs and better care for those that need hands-on. It won't be long before we have tele-medicine devices in our home to measure all sort of things. For many, working at home will become an attractive option.

In the past, wars were turning points that brought improvements in our cultures, at the expense of people and property. This is a world war, but with a common enemy and hopefully, shorter duration. It will impact people and businesses as all wars do, but with lower impact than an war that uses bullets and bombs. Once won, the world benefits. 2020 will be seen as a turning point, one way or other. I believe there are reasons to look at the glass as half full.
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:35 AM   #44
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People have mentioned a change in schools after this, but, as a teacher, I just don't see it. The biggest shift we may see is the possibility of remote learning to replace snow days, but even that I'm not convinced will happen.

There are many, many problems with online learning, which is why most institutions use it only as supplementary education if at all (college is, of course, where most of it happens).

Once the "daycare" and "homeschool" aspect is entered into the equation, it's an immediate no-go. The percent of parents that could be available/at home for or capable of supporting that type of education is very low.

Also, we know that the social aspect is essential. My students are really struggling with this.

Finally, most parents I know and connect with on town forums are going crazy trying to balance work and school. Because my wife and and I are teachers, we've been able to cut work to the essentials and provide "authentic" (pedagogical code word!) opportunities for learning: for example, my son is learning geometry and measurements, so guess who's laying out the fort we're building?!

Cheers, all.

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Old 04-08-2020, 09:24 AM   #45
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Not sure when or how this will end, but for perspective

Since the early 1900’s, we have survived

- 4 major flu pandemics (68 - 69 Hong Kong flu alone killed 1+ million worldwide)
- Numerous non-flu (polio, Ebola, Zika, SARs, MRSA, Lime Disease, EE, etc., etc.)
- 2 world wars, Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis, Terrorism, 911, mass shootings, etc.
- A “great” depression, numerous recessions
- A bunch of stuff I’ve probably missed

I’m not dismissing the seriousness of this by any means, but this isn’t the first time and likely not the last. The biggest question to me is what will the lasting changes be.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:12 AM   #46
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I’m not dismissing the seriousness of this by any means, but this isn’t the first time and likely not the last. The biggest question to me is what will the lasting changes be.
+US becomes more self sufficient in manufacturing many things which...
+Creates more manufacturing jobs, which....
+Boosts the economy and tax revenues for infrastructure, social programs, and debt reduction.
+We discover our families and the value of socialization.
+We are better prepared for future pandemics.
+We reduce the instances of other diseases through better sanitization awareness.
+We all become a bit more aware of our dependence on each other and the services provided by many unsung heroes.
+Just maybe, I Hope, we are all a bit more civilized.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:39 AM   #47
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Orion, I hope so on all points, but the older I get, the more pessimistic I get
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:49 AM   #48
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People have mentioned a change in schools after this, but, as a teacher, I just don't see it. The biggest shift we may see is the possibility of remote learning to replace snow days, but even that I'm not convinced will happen.

There are many, many problems with online learning, which is why most institutions use it only as supplementary education if at all (college is, of course, where most of it happens).

Once the "daycare" and "homeschool" aspect is entered into the equation, it's an immediate no-go. The percent of parents that could be available/at home for or capable of supporting that type of education is very low.

Also, we know that the social aspect is essential. My students are really struggling with this.

Finally, most parents I know and connect with on town forums are going crazy trying to balance work and school. Because my wife and and I are teachers, we've been able to cut work to the essentials and provide "authentic" (pedagogical code word!) opportunities for learning: for example, my son is learning geometry and measurements, so guess who's laying out the fort we're building?!

Cheers, all.

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Plus, let's remember that it's not just relatively strong students from wealthy towns trying to learn at home. Kids who struggle academically in person (like the bottom 50%), struggle even more online. Kids who do not own computers or wifi are at a complete loss.

If your kid was on his way to BC or MIT, I'm sure he's fine with all this academically. But if your kid struggles with math or has a computer held together with band aids and string, this is cutting off his ability to have a chance at college or many careers. (That's not to say every good career requires college, only that every kid should have a chance to go)
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:05 AM   #49
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Fortunately Moultonborough moved to "blizzard bags" and students using iPods a few years back. My youngest is slated to graduate college and start teaching in May so we don't have real world experience with distant learning in town, but they had a little head start.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:25 AM   #50
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Fortunately Moultonborough moved to "blizzard bags" and students using iPods a few years back. My youngest is slated to graduate college and start teaching in May so we don't have real world experience with distant learning in town, but they had a little head start.
I would think being prepared to discuss this event would be beneficial to your youngest during the interview process!

Flying, believe it or not, some of my highest achieving students are struggling just as much—I received an email from a brilliant future PA (William & Mary or BU bound) yesterday who thanked me for my virtual lesson as it's the "most normal she's felt in weeks."

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Old 04-08-2020, 12:56 PM   #51
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+US becomes more self sufficient in manufacturing many things which...
+Creates more manufacturing jobs, which....
+Boosts the economy and tax revenues for infrastructure, social programs, and debt reduction.
Ain't gonna happen.

No matter what side you are on in the political spectrum. Manufacturing wants the least expensive labor possible. And that is not in the USA.
Those who own stocks - want the stock price higher - and dividends. With virtual no care where items are produced.

Do any reading here ever view the label on their clothing?
Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, China, and now Vietnam.

I seek out products Made in USA. But how many go out of their way to do this? Yes, some clothing and products are still made in USA.

Here are some tidbits.

Everything in the LL Bean catalog is made outside the USA. Everything in the LL Bean catalog is imported. The original rubber boots are still assembled in USA - from foreign parts. That's it for LL Bean. I'm old enough to remember that everything in the LL Bean catalog was made in USA.

New Balance has a real factory outlet in Lawrence, MA. And yes, a few of their sneakers are still made in Lawrence, MA. Made in USA.

A M Leonard still makes garden tools made in USA. Go to the local hardware store and you won't find any garden tools made in USA. Yet, one can still purchase all of your garden tools from a company such as A M Leonard.

Walmart. Box fans (square fans). I was in a Walmart a few times and viewed a pallet of box fans. All were made in China. But. The next month there was a pallet of box fans made in USA. Lasko brand box fans are made in USA. Amazingly the price for the China box fans and the Lasko made in USA box fans - was exactly the same. This was not a one shot deal. As I view the box fans over the years. Why doesn't Walmart purchase/sell all of the box fans that are made in USA? Walmart doesn't give a hoot about buying/selling items made in USA. Although Walmart had a multi-million advertising campaign - extolling the virtues of buying American. Next time anyone is in a Walmart store - go look at the box fans and view what county they are made in.

Number 10 white business envelopes. Walmart used to sell a box of 50 (now 40] of Mead - made in USA envelopes. Then Walmart briefly began selling number 10 white envelopes made in China. That didn't last long at Walmart as who wants to lick China glue? Anyone? So Walmart quickly switched to number 10 white envelope made in Mexico. I guess Mexico glue is better for the pallet than China glue. Yet visit any Dollar Tree store and Dollar Tree still sells the Mead - made in USA number 10 white envelopes. Why can't Walmart sell the Mead - made in USA white number 10 envelopes? Same price in both stores. And yes, some envelopes have a peal off self stickng strip.

I recently purchased a new snow blower/thrower. I sought out the brand with an engine made in USA. Sorry. All engines are now made in China or Thailand. No new snow blowers have engine made in USA.

I had the brake rotors (disks) replaced in my car and truck. No brand has rotors made in USA anymore. Can't get any. Made in China, Taiwan, or Mexico. Yes, there are some small companies that do make rotors in the USA - but all of those are for specialty use such as car racing. None for any car or pickup truck made in USA.

"Bring the jobs back" was/is he mantra. Yet few if any products have come back to the USA. I hear on the news that many of the ventilators are wait for it . . . made in China.

The list goes on. But enough for now.

How many take the time to actually seek out USA products?
Yet most will claim to want to "bring the jobs back".

Go figure !

Who wants to lick the glue on envelopes made in China?
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:02 PM   #52
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Ain't gonna happen.

No matter what side you are on in the political spectrum. Manufacturing wants the least expensive labor possible. And that is not in the USA.
Those who own stocks - want the stock price higher - and dividends. With virtual no care where items are produced.

Do any reading here ever view the label on their clothing?
Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, China, and now Vietnam.

I seek out products Made in USA. But how many go out of their way to do this? Yes, some clothing and products are still made in USA.
Great points. In addition to seeking out Made in the USA, though, we must be willing to pay a premium for domestic labor. How many of us are willing to pay 20, 30, 40% for goods made here?
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:12 PM   #53
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Great points. In addition to seeking out Made in the USA, though, we must be willing to pay a premium for domestic labor. How many of us are willing to pay 20, 30, 40% for goods made here?
I am. Damned right I am. Get the hell away from depending on the lying theiving, chinese.
Bring our damned production back to the USA at any cost.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:18 PM   #54
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Great points. In addition to seeking out Made in the USA, though, we must be willing to pay a premium for domestic labor. How many of us are willing to pay 20, 30, 40% for goods made here?
I imagine that many Americans , and I include myself, would be willing to pay more for goods produced here in the USA. Think of the horrible price we are now paying for our reliance on other countries, particularly China, to manufacture strategic items.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:22 PM   #55
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Great points. In addition to seeking out Made in the USA, though, we must be willing to pay a premium for domestic labor. How many of us are willing to pay 20, 30, 40% for goods made here?
Sadly I think paying a premium for USA goods is a luxury not everyone can, or will, afford. It's the same thing with locally grown produce or locally raised meats; they cost more than what you buy at WalMart. And even, which I know is a controversial topic, paying a premium for clean energy - if polluting coal makes cheaper electricity than clean solar, not everyone can or will pay the higher price.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:44 PM   #56
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Great points. In addition to seeking out Made in the USA, though, we must be willing to pay a premium for domestic labor. How many of us are willing to pay 20, 30, 40% for goods made here?
Good points Professor, but I do believe the pendulum will swing. The manufacturers will seek to avoid risk and there will be a lot of risk going forward with regard to made in China. On top of that, there will be a larger amount of the population that will seek out "Made in USA" (I ALWAYS HAVE). At a minimum, there will be many trying to avoid "Made In China".

There is a lot of hidden cost associated with buying from the lowest cost source. I find it hard to believe that going forward, the US can't use technology to undercut manufacturing costs (with shipping) of of buying from Asia.

Lastly, I'm certain our President will provide incentives to bring jobs back to USA. Instead of a blind stimulus package, lets provide those incentives to budding manufacturers. This will have long-term benefits for us all.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:02 PM   #57
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TheProfessor, The only person that I ever remember that was happy that the glue on their envelopes was from China was George Costanza on Seinfeld.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:15 PM   #58
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+US becomes more self sufficient in manufacturing many things which...
+Creates more manufacturing jobs, which....
+Boosts the economy and tax revenues for infrastructure, social programs, and debt reduction.
+We discover our families and the value of socialization.
+We are better prepared for future pandemics.
+We reduce the instances of other diseases through better sanitization awareness.
+We all become a bit more aware of our dependence on each other and the services provided by many unsung heroes.
+Just maybe, I Hope, we are all a bit more civilized.
All this sounds great, but for the first two to happen, will Americans truly be willing to pay more for goods and services? There is a reason that so much of it was shipped to places like China and India, and it wasn't simply for the fun of it.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:22 PM   #59
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I think all dictators or want to be dictators start off by marginalizing the media. There is accurate news out there and sure sometimes you have to delve deeper into the story understand what is opinion versus fact. I think we all know Fox and MSNBC have a bias.
Personally, I like the Epoch Times, they seem to be the most level of all the media outlets.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:48 PM   #60
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Sadly I think paying a premium for USA goods is a luxury not everyone can, or will, afford. It's the same thing with locally grown produce or locally raised meats; they cost more than what you buy at WalMart. And even, which I know is a controversial topic, paying a premium for clean energy - if polluting coal makes cheaper electricity than clean solar, not everyone can or will pay the higher price.
There's a big difference "can" and "will". If a person is struggling to get by, I'm happy for them to get a low price at WalMart. (Which, BTW, you may remember used to be heavily Made in the USA before becoming a major driver of jobs moving overseas).

But the "will" thing bothers me when those who can afford to pay more for locally sourced goods still place price as paramount. I think part of this is that WalMart, Amazon, and others have persuaded us that we are stupid or saps or getting ripped off if we shop anywhere else.

As others have noted, we are now paying the price for driving cost down as far as possible without concern for other important factors.
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:09 PM   #61
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Personally, I like the Epoch Times, they seem to be the most level of all the media outlets.
This is what wikipedia has to say.

"he Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper[2] founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement.[3] Though the newspaper is known for general interest topics with a focus on news about China and its human rights issues, it has become known for its support of U.S. President Donald Trump and favorable coverage of far-right politicians in Europe; a 2019 report showed it to be the second-largest funder of pro-Trump Facebook advertising after the Trump campaign.[4][5][6][7][8][9][

10][11] The newspaper is part of the Epoch Media Group, which also operates New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD).[7] The group's news sites and YouTube channels have spread conspiracy theories such as QAnon and anti-vaccination propaganda.[7][12][13]"


Assuming your post was a joke?
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:29 PM   #62
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Personally, I like the Epoch Times, they seem to be the most level of all the media outlets.
They may claim in their Youtube ads to be level. They do have convincing YouTube ads.

As stated above, the Epoch Tiimes has an agenda. Very far from fair and balanced.
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:37 PM   #63
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Personally, I like the Epoch Times, they seem to be the most level of all the media outlets.
...and founded by anti-Communists who have fled Communist China.
The Epoch Times has a circulation of 1,314,375. (Higher than the New York Times).

Recently, their Hong Kong printshop was invaded by arsonists late one night: a security video shows the burglars torching everything in the office. Nothing was actually taken.

Such is the life of "far-right" news.

Quote:
"Complex topics were also explained in a way far less arcane than other print publications. I also noticed that The Epoch Times takes on topics and controversies without the typical slant. American readers are thirsty for such options".
Sharyl Attkisson (citing Wikipedia)
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:36 PM   #64
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...and founded by anti-Communists who have fled Communist China.
The Epoch Times has a circulation of 1,314,375. (Higher than the New York Times).

Recently, their Hong Kong printshop was invaded by arsonists late one night: a security video shows the burglars torching everything in the office. Nothing was actually taken.

Such is the life of "far-right" news.
Funny how we can't even get the facts straight when discussing Epoch Times as a news outlet. (Do you get your stats from them?) NY Times has over 4MM paid subscribers, mostly online. Epoch Times is a political organization, not journalism.
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:43 PM   #65
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There's a big difference "can" and "will". If a person is struggling to get by, I'm happy for them to get a low price at WalMart. (Which, BTW, you may remember used to be heavily Made in the USA before becoming a major driver of jobs moving overseas).

But the "will" thing bothers me when those who can afford to pay more for locally sourced goods still place price as paramount. I think part of this is that WalMart, Amazon, and others have persuaded us that we are stupid or saps or getting ripped off if we shop anywhere else.

As others have noted, we are now paying the price for driving cost down as far as possible without concern for other important factors.
We're in agreement. Many who want things manufactured here want lower prices more.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:05 AM   #66
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President Trump’s top health advisers are developing medical criteria for safely reopening the U.S. economy in coming weeks should trends showing a crest in the coronavirus outbreak hold steady.

Deborah Birx, the immunologist who coordinates the White House virus task force, met into the night Tuesday with health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn.

Notably absent from the late-night discussion were economic and political advisers to the president, along with the leader of the coronavirus task force, Vice President Mike Pence, and his chief of staff, Marc Short.

Excluding the political and economic advisers was a deliberate signal that the White House would continue for now to prioritize health considerations over economic ones, according to three people familiar with the meeting who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:09 AM   #67
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This is an interesting graphic of CV-19 vs. other causes of death.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/

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Old 04-09-2020, 06:41 AM   #68
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This is an interesting graphic of CV-19 vs. other causes of death.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/
Cool graph that comports well with changing statistics-reporting:

Quote:
"Deaths with COVID-19 are different from deaths from COVID-19."
An NYC doctor reported a 90 year-old COVID-19 DNR patient on a ventilator, who had meth in her system!

Why ventilators aren't the whole answer:
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/...ters/89441362/

Last edited by ApS; 04-09-2020 at 06:49 AM. Reason: Add link...
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:49 AM   #69
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Cool graph that comports well with changing statistics-reporting:

An NYC doctor reported a 90 year-old COVID-19 DNR patient on a ventilator, who had meth in her system!

Why ventilators aren't the whole answer:
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/...ters/89441362/
Agreed, but are there deaths caused by CV-19 that aren't being reported correctly? And, as I mentioned on the other thread, what percent is "the reporting" off? Even if off significantly, it's still alarming to be at/above the top of the list, especially with all the steps we've taken.

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Old 04-09-2020, 06:58 AM   #70
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When does it end? How can it? ...... sounds like a song sung by Frank Sinatra.
Of course, Frank had that big talent of his to sing almost any line into a hit.

"When does it end? How can it?

You know the day will come when it will be over.

So we must be careful now not to catch it.

Unfortunate that a very few will get zapped by that coronavirus.

And become one of the few New Hampshire outliers.

So the time is here to be so very careful.

To keep your distance from those all around you.

That Lowe's announcement tells us to sneeze into our elbow.

Be extra polite to those all around you.

And give that coronavirus a whole lot of space.

Until the time will come when it will be over.

And people will say good riddance and stay away."
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:33 AM   #71
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Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday and couples living there rushed to take advantage.

A local marriage application system run by Chinese tech platform Alipay saw a 300% increase in traffic, according to an official post on China's microblogging site Weibo, causing a temporary logjam.

Alipay also announced in its post that it offers a service to couples to search and see what baby names have already been used by other couples. Alipay is one of the most widely-used payment platforms in China, alongside WeChat
.

I don't know. "Alipay" seems too close to alimony to be a marriage payment website. If that is how you start the process it seems like a bad omen!
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:56 AM   #72
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I would like to believe that jobs will come back but, alas, they won’t.

Reason 1: Americans have a notoriously short memory. Coronavirus, and any part in it played by China, will disappear from the majority’s mind within three months of the last surge in cases and deaths. Look back, it’s happened in virtually every other catastrophic incident in the last 50 years. We talk a good game during crisis but never follow thru. Heck, we already dismantled the protections put in place during the 2008/2009 financial crisis because it was costing big business & banks $$.

Reason 2: Americans value price/cost above all else. Why do you think Walmart, Amazon, etc. have become some of the biggest businesses in the Country? As Orion mentioned, remember Walmart’s push for its “made in USA” section in 2008? If people put their $ where their mouth was it would have succeeded. But made in USA can never compete ($ wise) with SE Asia when they have wages in the $1(s)/day range and we are looking at $15/hr range.

Reason 3: Orion mentions the government providing incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to this country. We did that in the ill advised Trump tax cut. We allowed big business to bring billions of $ back to this country tax free and provided them a huge tax cut because, the president said they were going to bring manufacturing back to this country. Did they? No, the used the $ to buy back stock because in the long run it will increase their value.

As usual, just follow the $$$ and it will lead you to the end result.


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Old 04-09-2020, 12:37 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by TiltonBB View Post
Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday and couples living there rushed to take advantage.

A local marriage application system run by Chinese tech platform Alipay saw a 300% increase in traffic, according to an official post on China's microblogging site Weibo, causing a temporary logjam.

Alipay also announced in its post that it offers a service to couples to search and see what baby names have already been used by other couples. Alipay is one of the most widely-used payment platforms in China, alongside WeChat
.

I don't know. "Alipay" seems too close to alimony to be a marriage payment website. If that is how you start the process it seems like a bad omen!
Today I noticed several radio ads promoting legal services for divorces. I assume both marriages and divorce numbers will go up.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #74
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Cool graph that comports well with changing statistics-reporting:



An NYC doctor reported a 90 year-old COVID-19 DNR patient on a ventilator, who had meth in her system!

Your meth anecdote is why we use statistics and empirical data rather than anecdotes. All of the other causes of death also include people on meth (and all sorts of other crap).
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:41 PM   #75
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I'm not a conspiracy buff, but it is interesting to note that the Chinese National Biosafety Laboratory, part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, is about ten miles from the market where it is claimed the virus first was found.

By report, the Lab had been experimenting with viruses from bats.

see: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...evidence-67229
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:35 PM   #76
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All of the other causes of death also include people on meth (and all sorts of other crap).
Thinkxingu's active graph suggests that COVID-19 is lately "being discovered", perhaps with a zeal to strengthen a political position.

(To augment voter fraud?)

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Originally Posted by FlyingScot View Post
Your meth anecdote is why we use statistics and empirical data rather than anecdotes.
Well...you know what Mark Twain said about statistics.

As for empirical data, that appears as the subtitle on a textbook cover—one of two textbooks I've authored:

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Old 04-09-2020, 10:35 PM   #77
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Thinkxingu's active graph suggests that COVID-19 is lately "being discovered", perhaps with a zeal to strengthen a political position.


What about the phrase “novel coronavirus” do you not understand? In case you didn’t know, novel, as an adjective, means new.


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Old 04-10-2020, 08:55 AM   #78
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Agreed, but are there deaths caused by CV-19 that aren't being reported correctly? And, as I mentioned on the other thread, what percent is "the reporting" off? Even if off significantly, it's still alarming to be at/above the top of the list, especially with all the steps we've taken.
You'll notice the rapid flip in COVID-19, putting us "over the top". A good explanation follows.

An MD, and US Representative, explains the reason why:

Quote:
"Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do."
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:23 AM   #79
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Funny how we can't even get the facts straight when discussing Epoch Times as a news outlet. (Do you get your stats from them?) NY Times has over 4MM paid subscribers, mostly online. Epoch Times is a political organization, not journalism.
Epoch Times is an extensive paper Asian newspaper, and a trial subscription is available for $1.

Another is Asia Times, which I follow because, due International Time, their articles appear first, while I'm having my morning coffee. Australian news is prominent.

An expose appears as an Epoch Times video, explaining the COVID-19 timeline.
https://youtu.be/3bXWGxhd7ic

Interviewees include American scientists, with General Spalding prominent as an Intel agent, and a resident in China.

I've seen nothing as thoroughly professional, even among the UK media. It's an hour of real investigation!
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:39 AM   #80
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Epoch Times is an extensive paper Asian newspaper, and a trial subscription is available for $1.





I've seen nothing as thoroughly professional, even among the UK media. It's an hour of real investigation!

From Media Bias/Fact Check
Name:  7A1EC326-E83B-4C28-8667-15D82D052E78-41223-000005C4936299AF.JPG
Views: 3701
Size:  12.1 KBName:  D3437AEB-11A0-42ED-AD51-6365BF6E8372-41223-000005C49BCE888B.JPG
Views: 3748
Size:  27.7 KB



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Old 04-10-2020, 09:39 AM   #81
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Thinkxingu's active graph suggests that COVID-19 is lately "being discovered", perhaps with a zeal to strengthen a political position.
I take Think's graph as a way of explaining how covid has grown as an actual killer, not just an expected killer. You may remember (haha) a significant number of our penpals asserting that covid is not a big deal because current deaths were low relative to other causes of death at a particular point. As we can see from the graph, that is no longer the case
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Old 04-10-2020, 11:23 AM   #82
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I saw today that hospitals in NH are seeing a 40% reduction in cardiac arrest cases and they cannot figure out why.
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Old 04-10-2020, 11:41 AM   #83
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This is what wikipedia has to say.

"he Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper[2] founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement.[3] Though the newspaper is known for general interest topics with a focus on news about China and its human rights issues, it has become known for its support of U.S. President Donald Trump and favorable coverage of far-right politicians in Europe; a 2019 report showed it to be the second-largest funder of pro-Trump Facebook advertising after the Trump campaign.[4][5][6][7][8][9][

10][11] The newspaper is part of the Epoch Media Group, which also operates New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD).[7] The group's news sites and YouTube channels have spread conspiracy theories such as QAnon and anti-vaccination propaganda.[7][12][13]"


Assuming your post was a joke?
Yes it was a joke, I don't even get their paper. I thought some of you would get a chuckle out of it. I only know about them because of their stupid adds.
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Old 04-10-2020, 04:37 PM   #84
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Thumbs up How Can It End?

I'm assured by my Primary Care Doctor that WebMD is a trustworthy site.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...l-for-covid-19

A US stem cell treatment is close to resolution.
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Old 04-10-2020, 10:45 PM   #85
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I'm assured by my Primary Care Doctor that WebMD is a trustworthy site.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...l-for-covid-19

A US stem cell treatment is close to resolution.
WebMD is a reliable site. A drug company received FDA a approval for an initial trial of stem cell therapy. There are hundreds of therapies being tried around the world. No strong reason not to try stem cell therapy but not much reason to expect it to work.
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Old 04-11-2020, 10:09 AM   #86
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I'm assured by my Primary Care Doctor that WebMD is a trustworthy site.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...l-for-covid-19

A US stem cell treatment is close to resolution.
Maxum may know the correct numbers, but the number of Phase I candidates that makes it to FDA approval is less than 10%
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Old 04-11-2020, 11:42 AM   #87
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I don't have exact numbers on this - even if I did and could disclose them it would be from the context of the trials that are run by my employer which are a fraction of what drugs are currently under development at any time. In fact we specialize in the oncology space as a general rule. There is specific genetic experimentation going on right now in cancer treatments that may prove useful in many other areas including antivirals such as COVID. Those are actively being looked at.

That said, I do know that the entire process from start to finish is extremely long and drawn out, and the number of drugs that actually make it through the entire process is very low - I'd say less than 5% based on my observation. Thing is while so many may fail, coming out of those failures is new treatments that are tweaks or reformulations of a prior study. Most people don't realize that it takes a lot of time and expense to get drugs out there with relative confidence they are safe and behave as expected. We have some trials that are 15+ years in and still not approved. Most average about 10 years.

What does help ALOT is that we conduct trials all over the world and it is really helpful to do this work in countries where the regulations are far less stringent, as that data can be aggregated in and helps with the FDA approval process in the US.

As a general rule the FDA is a pain to deal with and arguably some aspects of approval to move a drug forward through the development process are overly cumbersome and frustrating to deal with at the same time there is a lot at stake considering people could and in some cases have died taking experimental drugs. How do you really weigh being overly cautious with providing a risky treatment that could save a life?

Just as a disclaimer I'm a systems guy not a doctor or scientist. The above information is based off conversations I've been privy to or just being part of the process in setting up or shutting down trial related studies or providing data to the FDA as a drug is tracking through the process. I am by no means an expert on this. I just know the regulations are insane, and not just the US either, the EU is even worse.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:28 AM   #88
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Arrow Providing News Not Found Here...

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Yes it was a joke, I don't even get their paper. I thought some of you would get a chuckle out of it. I only know about them because of their stupid adds.
Harvard involved in virus research.

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"The FBI complaint alleges that he had been secretly participating in China’s “Thousand Talents Plan” since 2011, paid some $600,000 a year plus expenses to open and operate a lab at the Wuhan University of Technology (yes, that Wuhan). We know that China contracts with American experts in this way in order to steal their research and gain commercial funds..."
--Epoch Times
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Old 04-14-2020, 09:26 PM   #89
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Obviously THIS lady thinks the worst is over.

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Old 04-15-2020, 02:00 PM   #90
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Default Rapid testing is key

Rapid testing is possible today. Here's an example from an apparently more advanced country with a sophisticated effective government:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-before-flight
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Old 04-15-2020, 03:15 PM   #91
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Rapid testing is possible today. Here's an example from an apparently more advanced country with a sophisticated effective government:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-before-flight
I'm sorry but Emirates is an airline, not a country. Further, if you are calling any middle eastern country advanced or sophisticated, now your credibility is in question!
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:01 PM   #92
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I'm sorry but Emirates is an airline, not a country. Further, if you are calling any middle eastern country advanced or sophisticated, now your credibility is in question!
OMG! That is too funny...

Hope all is well Vita!

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Old 04-15-2020, 04:18 PM   #93
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Rapid testing is possible today. Here's an example from an apparently more advanced country with a sophisticated effective government:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-before-flight
As it is a blood test, this is looking for antibodies and can identify people who have been infected. It is also the test that many companies are developing but still has some problems technically.

Additionally, if the test shows the person has had Covid-19 antibodies it is still not known for certain if these antibodies actually do protect and if they do, we do not know how long the protection lasts.

BUT it is exactly the kind of test that should be perfected and can be helpful in opening up the country. We are not quite there yet with this antibody test.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:20 PM   #94
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Dan My Friend (and Vita),

After our Honeymooners exchange I am surprised my humor is too dry for you. Of course I do not believe that there is an Arab country with a government that is as advanced or effective as our own.

But the 10 minute pre-boarding test is a damn good trick, and it is disappointing/sad that they beat us--American, United, FAA, TSA, CDC, etc--to the punch.

Don't ya think?
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Old 04-15-2020, 10:16 PM   #95
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Thumbs up Emirates: Modern and Forward-Looking...

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I'm sorry but Emirates is an airline, not a country. Further, if you are calling any middle eastern country advanced or sophisticated, now your credibility is in question!
Emirates is an airline, but the UAE is composed of seven Emirates, and is a country.
The seven Emirates derived their name from their seven rulers, called Emirs.

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"The United Arab Emirates, sometimes simply called the Emirates, is a country in Western Asia at the northeast end of the Arabian Peninsula on the Persian Gulf, bordering Oman to the east and Saudi Arabia to the south and west, as well as sharing maritime borders with Qatar to the west and Iran to the north.

The sovereign constitutional monarchy is a federation of seven emirates consisting of Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain. Their boundaries are complex, with numerous enclaves within the various emirates. Each emirate is governed by a ruler; together, they jointly form the Federal Supreme Council. One of the rulers serves as the President of the United Arab Emirates. In 2013, the UAE's population was 9.2 million, of which 1.4 million are Emirati citizens and 7.8 million are expatriates."
—Wikipedia
The UAE, considering that they've pumped all of their oil, is surprisingly modern and built-up. A number of sport-racing events, mostly imported from Europe (boat/car), are conducted there, and if you want to go snow-skiing, there's a venue for that!

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The ambition, cutting-edge technological standards and worldwide reach of Formula 1 goes hand in hand with Emirates’ vision and ambition.”
https://www.emirates.com/english/abo...p/motorsports/
Aside from their airline, another familiar "Emirates" image—capable of easily exceeding Lake Winnipesaukee's Speed Limit:
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Old 04-16-2020, 06:57 AM   #96
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Talking about the Emirates ..... the Emirates Airlines is a big sponsor for tennis

http://www.emirates.com/US/english/a...orship/tennis/

including the U S Tennis Open in NYC ...... that now has two large tennis

stadiums converted into a field hospital and food distribution to support victims

of the coronavirus in New York. So that Emirates Airlines sponsor money is now

going to help with the support effort in NYC.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:27 AM   #97
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I'm sorry but Emirates is an airline, not a country. Further, if you are calling any middle eastern country advanced or sophisticated, now your credibility is in question!
They look pretty advanced to me.
If they can do why can't our "advanced" country do it?


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Rapid testing is possible today. Here's an example from an apparently more advanced country with a sophisticated effective government:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-before-flight
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:29 AM   #98
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They look pretty advanced to me.
If they can do why can't our "advanced" country do it?
I have to ask...who is "they"??
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Old 04-16-2020, 12:44 PM   #99
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They look pretty advanced to me.
If they can do why can't our "advanced" country do it?
Please see response #93 above.

Testing and vaccines will be a part of our foreseeable lives but when and how are almost 7,000,000,000 people going to be tested or inoculated?

Advanced? No, they have lots of money and can buy technology and people.
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:42 PM   #100
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NH just went to remote learning for the rest of the school year. I'm guessing MA will announce tomorrow or in the next week.

I'm hoping we see that the reason for this is purely numbers/proximity and that we start to move towards opening up with clear distancing/demographic guidelines.

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