Go Back   Winnipesaukee Forum > Winnipesaukee Forums > Covid-19 Discussions & Information
Home Forums Gallery Blogs YouTube Channel Classifieds Calendar Register FAQDonate Members List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-24-2021, 03:11 PM   #1
mswlogo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 639
Thanks: 193
Thanked 222 Times in 143 Posts
Default A different view point to help everyone understand

I think there is a lot of confusion over the numbers.

A lot of folks keep saying, so what, it's twice as bad as the FLU, but we've lived with the FLU for a century. And Vaccines don't prevent getting infected. For those folks, please keep reading.

The biggest problem with COVID is the capacity of our Healthcare System can't handle "Twice the FLU" or 3x a bad FLU season.

Here is analogy I came up with that might help clarify things.

Take a highway that can handle 10,000 cars a day, at max load.
Now put 20,000 cars a day on it. Everything grinds to a halt.
Now, you can't even get 10,000 cars through a day. Deadlocks all over.
COVID is trying to put 50,000 cars a day on that highway.

Our health care system is designed to handle things like peaks in the FLU or natural disasters. It's not designed to handle a Pandemic "Surge".

COVID (waves or surges) are fairly concentrated time wise and it's putting 4-5x FLU load on the system in a fairly short time (1-2 months). When that happens everything falls apart. So even non COVID patients will get less or no care.

So if everyone could get a vaccine, wear a mask (when it makes sense) and social distance it all helps keep that peak down or even spread it out more over time. So that the system doesn't pop a circuit breaker and the lights go out. So maybe the Vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting it or the mask doesn't. But we know they help. If EVERYONE pitches in to minimize their own risk (Vaccines, Masks, Social Distance, stay home as much as possible) it will help the peak from getting too high.

All the things above don't have to stop you from enjoying life. But I think you can survive skipping that concert you wanted to go too and still enjoy things.

What's really bad right now is Omicron spreads even faster than all variants before. And currently just as lethal. Now it's going to be harder than ever to keep that PEAK down so the health care system doesn't collapse around us.

You can't look at each thing, masks, vaccines, number cases etc. You have to look at it as a whole in relation to our healthcare system.

Good news is the Peak is already going down in South Africa (they are a month ahead). We probably won't peak until late January. And we are close to the highest ever right now. And the Slope of the curve is straight UP.

Have a good holiday, at home

Last edited by mswlogo; 12-24-2021 at 09:25 PM.
mswlogo is offline  
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to mswlogo For This Useful Post:
BroadHopper (12-25-2021), Flylady (12-24-2021), Nagigator (12-24-2021), trfour (01-13-2022)
Old 12-24-2021, 03:27 PM   #2
LoveLakeLife
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 288
Thanks: 44
Thanked 109 Times in 67 Posts
Default

Just as lethal? Are you sure? How many omicron deaths have there been in the U.S. ? Merry Christmas, at home or anywhere else!


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app
LoveLakeLife is offline  
Old 12-24-2021, 04:19 PM   #3
FlyingScot
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Tuftonboro and Sudbury, MA
Posts: 1,778
Thanks: 909
Thanked 767 Times in 465 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife View Post
Just as lethal? Are you sure? How many omicron deaths have there been in the U.S. ? Merry Christmas, at home or anywhere else!


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app
Hard to know exactly, and of course there are a bunch of ways to measure this. But let's not quibble over small points in a very helpful post.

We know that Omicron is 3X as transmissible and that if an unvaxxed older person gets it, he could really be screwed. Also keep in mind that delta is still out there killing people too. US is now at 814,000 dead
FlyingScot is offline  
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to FlyingScot For This Useful Post:
mswlogo (12-24-2021), trfour (12-24-2021)
Old 12-24-2021, 04:36 PM   #4
mswlogo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 639
Thanks: 193
Thanked 222 Times in 143 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife View Post
Just as lethal? Are you sure? How many omicron deaths have there been in the U.S. ? Merry Christmas, at home or anywhere else!


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app
You're right. They have changed their tune of how severe symptoms of Omicron is in the past few days.

We are at ~3,000 deaths a day right now which is close to the highest ever. Why is that?
Most INFECTIONS are Omicron now. Deaths are probably still mostly Delta.
But it's a little early yet to know the real death rate of Omicron in the USA, COVID has varied a lot by region.
Those that were vaccinated I'm sure is helping that Omicron death rate in the USA. And hospitals might be better at treating patients. So many variables.

But infection rates are also at one of the highest levels yet, it will probably be double by late January.

Keep in mind, even if Omicron kills at a lower rate, it's much higher infection rate makes it overall just as stressful on the healthcare system.

And yes, if indeed Omicron is more infectious and less lethal, it could be gift in the long run. But it could still overwhelm the system. Don't let your guard down.
mswlogo is offline  
Old 12-24-2021, 05:04 PM   #5
John Mercier
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Posts: 1,151
Thanks: 0
Thanked 230 Times in 200 Posts
Default

I don't think that it will be easy to make a real world comparison.
Between the vaccination and natural infection rates, some level of immunity will exist for the Omicron variant... that alone should skew the real world results.

Really you hit it fairly well with the hospital concept, but we will see it much better over time... as the cost of that surge is going to embed itself in insurance premiums and property taxes.
John Mercier is offline  
Sponsored Links
Old 12-24-2021, 05:47 PM   #6
Flylady
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: So. California & Lakes Region
Posts: 255
Thanks: 218
Thanked 106 Times in 61 Posts
Default Hospitals in NH are full...

As a result of covid cases in the hospitals my neighbor who has cancer, had his surgery postponed. He has been undergoing radiation for the last 5 months in preparation for his surgery. His very serious form of cancer will not wait for covid to simmer down.

Yet the majority of people in the hospital's icu are unvaccinated. It really appears the unvaxed just do not care at all about anyone but themselves. I wonder if their tune changes after they lose a loved one?
Flylady is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Flylady For This Useful Post:
trfour (12-24-2021)
Old 12-24-2021, 07:16 PM   #7
garysanfran
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: San Francisco/Meredith
Posts: 1,258
Thanks: 464
Thanked 556 Times in 269 Posts
Default

It occurs to me, we vaccinated are being forced to go way too far to protect those who aren't. By now, we have all made our personal decisions. I do not want to be penalized by those who chose differently.
__________________
Gary
~~~~_/) ~~~
~~~~~~~~
garysanfran is offline  
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to garysanfran For This Useful Post:
FlyingScot (12-25-2021), Sue Doe-Nym (12-24-2021), trfour (12-24-2021)
Old 01-12-2022, 02:40 PM   #8
thebix
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: South Down since 2009.
Posts: 83
Thanks: 2
Thanked 29 Times in 21 Posts
Default United says 3,000 employees have COVID, but its vaccine mandate has saved lives

United says 3,000 employees have COVID, but its vaccine mandate has saved lives

Story on NPR.ORG
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...LaNFnScsvN1pT0

Amid a flurry of flight cancellations, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby offered a window into the staffing challenges employers are facing due to the omicron surge.

"We have about 3,000 employees who are currently positive for COVID. Just as an example, in one day alone at Newark, nearly one-third of our workforce called out sick," he wrote in a memo to employees on Tuesday.

In the memo, Kirby also took the opportunity to emphasize that the airline's vaccine mandate is working despite the large number of employees testing positive.

He noted that among United's 3,000 employees who currently have COVID-19, zero of its vaccinated employees are currently hospitalized.

Moreover, he revealed that prior to the airline's vaccine mandate, which took effect in September, more than one United employee was dying from COVID-19 every week, on average.

"But we've now gone eight straight weeks with zero COVID-related deaths among our vaccinated employees," he wrote, noting that based on available data, that means approximately eight to 10 lives were saved by the vaccine requirement.

"While I know that some people still disagree with our policy, United is proving that requiring the vaccine is the right thing to do because it saves lives," Kirby wrote.
thebix is offline  
Old 01-12-2022, 07:25 PM   #9
VitaBene
Senior Member
 
VitaBene's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Moultonborough
Posts: 3,440
Thanks: 1,501
Thanked 1,569 Times in 796 Posts
Default Good news perhaps

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavi...?p1=hp_primary
VitaBene is offline  
Old 01-13-2022, 05:11 PM   #10
mswlogo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 639
Thanks: 193
Thanked 222 Times in 143 Posts
Default

A lot of statistics show that the less educated the less likely to get vaccinated.

Now this.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021...r-intelligence
mswlogo is offline  
Closed Thread

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:07 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

This page was generated in 1.09170 seconds