Ice Conditions 3-15-14

[ishoot308]

I went out for a ride on the ice yesterday to Welch Island in my Polaris Ranger.

I saw no evidence of the ice softening or giving way anywhere! The Glendale launch and Gilford beach area are just as solid now (maybe more solid!) than they were three weeks ago during the deep freeze!

The top of the ice is very hard with a few patches of hardened snow here and there. There is no underlying slush, no soft areas, just solid hard ice everywhere I went.

The lake is still making ice and based on the weather reports, will be until Wednesday or Thursday of this upcoming week when things start to warm up.

On my way to Welch, I stopped and visited with a couple fishermen who said there was up to 30" ice in areas which I know is true as we had 24" 2 weeks ago where I was ice fishing. There were full size trucks, cars, suv's driving all over the place with ease.

This morning I watched from my home in Gilford as a full size suburban made his way across the lake from Lockes Island heading towards Rattlesnake and went right directly over the area that took a long time to freeze between Welch and Lakeshore Park. I have no idea how much ice is there but obviously enough to hold a 6000 lb vehicle!

Not to be a pessimist but it's going to be a loooong, loooong, time before ice out and it definitely won't happen in April...

Dan

[MAXUM]

I agree I drilled three holes out in front of my place and there is a good 3 feet of ice out there, took almost the entire auger to get through! Going to be a long wait unless it gets really really warm and windy. Long range forecast indicates neither.

[riverat]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

I agree I drilled three holes out in front of my place and there is a good 3 feet of ice out there, took almost the entire auger to get through! Going to be a long wait unless it gets really really warm and windy. Long range forecast indicates neither.

Same here, takes almost the entire length of auger blade to get through in Alton Bay, Have'nt seen that much ice for atleast a dozen years.And never this late in the season. I want to bump up my "Ice Out" guess a month to May 18th.

[Diver Vince]

Disgusting...

[MDoug]

Originally Posted by riverat

Same here, takes almost the entire length of auger blade to get through in Alton Bay, Have'nt seen that much ice for atleast a dozen years.And never this late in the season. I want to bump up my "Ice Out" guess a month to May 18th.

We are planning to delay our flight up. May 17 looks about right.

[bilproject]

With no warming in site for the next 2 weeks (-3 tonight) and at least 6 weeks to melt 36" of ice, Memorial Day Weekend could be in jepordy if April and May are not above normal.

[Blue Thunder]

If I can add another perspective from another large lake I completely agree with what you guys are saying. Ice on Sebago here is at least two feet thick, cars and trucks are out in force which is highly unusual for mid March. No sign of melting or pulling away from the edges at all. May for sure.


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[CoastalWx]

The time of ice-out highly depends on the April weather. You'd be surprised what a weeks worth of warm wx can do. Some signs we may have a period of mild wx maybe after the first week of April, but I would not hold my breath. Until then, winter continues full steam ahead with snow chances tomorrow night and Saturday. Next week looks like another arctic blast.

[Machz]

Sorry everyone I just ordered a boat for this year so ice out could be July. I should have picked up a new snowmobile and it would be 80 and sunny out right now

[jmen24]

The nice thing is that even though it is cold out, the sun is strong enough to generate some snow melting. This may not follow suit with the ice, but it is something to hold onto.

On a side note: Are the bob houses really iced in with the snow/rain/snow/freeze event from a few weeks ago? It would seem to me that if you did not move your house before the refreeze that they would be a bear to move now.

[MAXUM]

They may have to add ice racing to the agenda for bike week.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

The time of ice-out highly depends on the April weather. You'd be surprised what a weeks worth of warm wx can do. Some signs we may have a period of mild wx maybe after the first week of April, but I would not hold my breath. Until then, winter continues full steam ahead with snow chances tomorrow night and Saturday. Last week looks like another arctic blast.

It may or may not happen but a week of above average temperatures, wind and rain, is not uncommon in April. I'm not worrying about the ice until mid April when we will have a much better perspective. Even with a lot of help we are looking at a late ice out. Ice will melt a lot faster once overnight lows remain above freezing, no sign of that in the near future.
I just bought a bike so I hope the sand and salt are gone before bike week!!

[Lakeboater]

PB, What did you get for a bike?

[sluggo]

Just drilled a few holes this morning going out of center harbor bay. Center of the bay the ice was 34 to 36 inches... going out to one mile island at the buoys the ice was 32 to 34 inches. Its not getting any better. Ice out is a long way off this year unless the gods favor us. I took the cover off my bike today and am going to say a prayer to the Harley gods hahahahah...

[SAB1]

I always think Ice Out is a good bet April 15-20. I cant recall in recent years where the edges werent soft by now. It certainly and likely will go later than normal but the wind plays a huge roll in ice removal. You get a week of heavy wind in mid April and that can change things quickley.

[sluggo]

Sab 1 when the winds do come in this year the icebergs will be taking permanent docks out across the lake. I haven't seen it like this in a lot of years but remember ice out used to be around May in any case, we have been lucky the last few years. Enjoy the hot sun !

[CoastalWx]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

It may or may not happen but a week of above average temperatures, wind and rain, is not uncommon in April. I'm not worrying about the ice until mid April when we will have a much better perspective. Even with a lot of help we are looking at a late ice out. Ice will melt a lot faster once overnight lows remain above freezing, no sign of that in the near future.
I just bought a bike so I hope the sand and salt are gone before bike week!!

March could be a top 5 or better coldest ever there. Pretty impressive. That said, I think there are some signs it could turn "milder" near the end of the month and then maybe after the 1st week...but I don't see a full scale pattern change yet. However, climo will eventually begin to take hold.

[Diver Vince]

This is all because of the intense global warming..Thank you Al Gore!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by Lakeboater

PB, What did you get for a bike?

I got a Harley Davidson Heritage Softail Classic. My retirement gift to me.

You can imagine how excited I got seeing a motorcycle on the bypass today. It will be a while, it seems!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by sluggo

Sab 1 when the winds do come in this year the icebergs will be taking permanent docks out across the lake. I haven't seen it like this in a lot of years but remember ice out used to be around May in any case, we have been lucky the last few years. Enjoy the hot sun !

Last year I watched the slabs of ice in the middle of Paugus Bay and knew the first windy day someone was getting it. A few days later the wind was out of the northwest and I could see the ice rolling slowly, like lava, up the banks of Christmas Island, Big and Little and The Margate and AC2717's area. I knew anybody in those areas was getting hammered. Same day the Meredith Town Docks got it. I run the aerator all winter to prevent heaves but I'm always at the mercy of the floating ice come spring. I think you're spot on about the damage we will see if weather doesn't cooperate. The slabs of ice will be slobs.

[riverat]

Originally Posted by jmen24

The nice thing is that even though it is cold out, the sun is strong enough to generate some snow melting. This may not follow suit with the ice, but it is something to hold onto.

On a side note: Are the bob houses really iced in with the snow/rain/snow/freeze event from a few weeks ago? It would seem to me that if you did not move your house before the refreeze that they would be a bear to move now.

Since I put my shacks on at the of january it has been "blocked" up 3 times. First time was 6" than got some snow/rain and warm temps and had to block up 4", than last week with the rain and warm temps again I found those blocks were under water so had to go another 4" and now those are 2" over the ice. If not kept up, you could be in the ice to the floorboards or above, not good.

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Last year I watched the slabs of ice in the middle of Paugus Bay and knew the first windy day someone was getting it. A few days later the wind was out of the northwest and I could see the ice rolling slowly, like lava, up the banks of Christmas Island, Big and Little and The Margate and AC2717's area. I knew anybody in those areas was getting hammered. Same day the Meredith Town Docks got it. I run the aerator all winter to prevent heaves but I'm always at the mercy of the floating ice come spring. I think you're spot on about the damage we will see if weather doesn't cooperate. The slabs of ice will be slobs.

Yeah, 6 out of the last 7 years (last year being the exception) we have had to have watermark re-drive two of our pylons in front of our main dock that stays in the water year round (aerators are no match for the wind), we have a main L shaped dock that stays in and then three fingers that come out. If were not for those pylons we would be replacing our docks every year it seems like. We have some small lake made jetties that poke out past our beaches and I love to sit there, when time permits) and watch/hear the ice crush and get pushed up over the rocks.

PBFF, how'd you know I would be lurking around here? lol