Weather forecast for the 3rd and 4th

MAXUM · 07-02-2008, 09:12 AM

Since nobody has asked, what say the weather gurus? Seems as though the forecast is shifting a bit for the 3rd and 4th and I'd like to get a more local take on what the rain/tstorm possibilities are for both days. Plan to be out on the lake both days and take in the fireworks. Don't mind dodging a few scattered rain showers, but can't say I'd be all that excited about trying to dodge any kind of severe thunderstorm activity!

meteotrade · 07-02-2008, 09:31 AM

In my humble opinion, looks like a pretty good couple of days coming up. A cold front comes through tomorrow afternoon with a period of clouds, showers and a few t-storms, mainly after 3 PM. I doubt the storms will be very strong- dewpoints will be in the 50s which is not really unstable enough for severe weather. Maybe CLA can chime in w/ his thoughts on severe potl tomorrow. Get your boating done early just in case.

Then we clear it out tomorrow night and the 4th looks stunning, a real top 10 day with light NW winds, dry air and highs in the upper 70s. Incidentally, the front may stall across southern New England with clouds and lingering showers down there, so the lake will be the place to be relative to other vacation spots further south. Enjoy!

NHKathy · 07-02-2008, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meteotrade

Then we clear it out tomorrow night and the 4th looks stunning, a real top 10 day with light NW winds, dry air and highs in the upper 70s. Incidentally, the front may stall across southern New England with clouds and lingering showers down there, so the lake will be the place to be relative to other vacation spots further south. Enjoy!

I'm headed up from Rhode Island, where, as said, the front may stall....
The Lake is the place to be!

CanisLupusArctos · 07-02-2008, 11:12 AM

Actually meteotrade, severe t-storm potential is there for tomorrow, but looks only marginal. SPC has much of the northeast circled for slight risk (level 1 of 3, where 3 is cataclysmic.) Dewpoints are low now but they'll be back on the rise tomorrow as winds turn SW. The SPC sees us getting dewpoints near 60 tomorrow. Not incredibly high, but sticky.

The limiting factor for severe potential tomorrow is the lapse rates (how quickly you would find the air cooling if you went straight up on a rocket.) The colder it is up there and the warmer/more humid it is down here (steep lapse rate) the better chance for severe weather. There are many other factors, but lapse rate is a biggie. Tomorrow's lapse rate, as SPC states in their discussion, looks only borderline for severe weather right now.

Still, a thunderstorm doesn't have to be severe in order to be dangerous on the lake. Remember a severe thunderstorm is one that has damaging wind or damaging hail. All thunderstorms have lightning, which, as we all know, is not good to get hit by. Also, non-severe thunderstorms can still generate wind gusts enough to knock you around if you're on the open lake. Sometimes a non-severe thunderstorm can get its winds into the "severe" threshold while crossing the lake, simply because there's nothing to slow down the wind on the open lake. The NWS may not be able to warn you about that-- just another reason boaters should take all thunderstorms seriously.

Tomorrow's thunderstorm threat - severe or not - will be anytime after noon, with chances increasing through the afternoon and decreasing after dark as the activity moves east.

Then, as meteotrade said, the cold front will stall along the south coast of New England and might ruin a few picnics down there.

On Friday and Saturday the best weather will be in northwestern New England with greater chances for showers and clouds further south and east. Best chances for great weather will be in VT... best chances for lousy weather will be Cape Cod and the islands (including Long Island NY.) Meteotrade's forecast for stunning on the 4th does have good chances at the lake, but that stalled front makes me nervous. I don't like stalling fronts. They don't always stall where and when they're predicted to. When they stall, they sometimes serve as a storm track, as little waves of low pressure develop and scoot along them. Just pray Thursday's front goes way south and east of New England, into the ocean, before it stalls. That way if waves of low pressure start using it as a bowling lane, we'll be beyond the gutter.

On Sunday, high pressure moves in and acts as meteorological Ex-Lax, takes control of New England and gives us all a nice day.

Highs will be in the mid-80s Thursday with "sticky" humidity. Friday and Saturday we'll see temps in the mid-70s and less humidity.

I also post forecasts on the WeatherCenter site... in the upper right corner click on "local forecasts." Includes my weather notes, NWS forecast, and Weather Underground forecast.

Discussion from SPC for Thursday:

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF FRONT FROM SE
CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NRN PARTS OF OH VALLEY. MOIST
AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO WARM SECTOR
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WHERE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT OVER THE NERN
STATES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD AND TIGHTENS GRADIENT. A
SWLY 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH NE
U.S. WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR SO WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A LOW END 15% SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAXUM · 07-02-2008, 11:43 AM

Thanks for the reports.... much appreciated!

Sounds like whatever weather may be around will not be terribly bad which is good. I'm crossing my fingers that the dew points stay relatively low so the thunderstorm threat is minimal.

meteotrade · 07-02-2008, 01:51 PM

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in what SPC says... on MON they had us in a slight risk and nothing happened. Today we were not in the slight risk and we've been absolutely hammered, at least down here in southern New England. I would trust the local forecasters over some Oklahoma boys any day!

CanisLupusArctos · 07-02-2008, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meteotrade

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in what SPC says... on MON they had us in a slight risk and nothing happened. Today we were not in the slight risk and we've been absolutely hammered, at least down here in southern New England. I would trust the local forecasters over some Oklahoma boys any day!

You have a good point on SPC vs. Local. SPC has disappointed me a lot this summer. They've pulled the alarm a few times for us-- and it needed to be pulled -- but our most active severe weather days have come without any alarm at all from them - local offices only. As you point out, we have today as an example (and yesterday, and the day before that...) I think the SPC are experts in severe weather which is why I follow their discussions, but the difference is, as you say, made by someone who knows New England's unique climate. Weather systems act differently here than outside New England. And unfortunately for forecasting purposes, we don't get a lot of practice with severe weather here like they do on the plains. I'll be the first to admit I'm a lot more confident in snowstorm forecasting than with severe weather. I've heard a lot of New England-born meteorologists say the same.

Rose · 07-05-2008, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meteotrade

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in what SPC says... on MON they had us in a slight risk and nothing happened. Today we were not in the slight risk and we've been absolutely hammered, at least down here in southern New England. I would trust the local forecasters over some Oklahoma boys any day!

From the graphics I can find on the SPC website, we were in the slight risk category from 12Z Sunday to 12Z on Monday, which verified. We were in the "see text" area from 12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. The text was

...NEW ENGLAND...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG.

DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF 50-55 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. EARLY DEPARTURE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR TO BE FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...NO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

For Tuesday, while they didn't have New England in the slight risk category, they didn't preclude it from happening.

...DE RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...

THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET STREAK PROPAGATING NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT...LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

I'd say they did a good job considering the difficulty of forecasting thunderstorms for one area, let alone an entire country.

07-02-2008, 09:12 AM	#1
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	Weather forecast for the 3rd and 4th Since nobody has asked, what say the weather gurus? Seems as though the forecast is shifting a bit for the 3rd and 4th and I'd like to get a more local take on what the rain/tstorm possibilities are for both days. Plan to be out on the lake both days and take in the fireworks. Don't mind dodging a few scattered rain showers, but can't say I'd be all that excited about trying to dodge any kind of severe thunderstorm activity!

07-02-2008, 11:12 AM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	A little of this, a little of that Actually meteotrade, severe t-storm potential is there for tomorrow, but looks only marginal. SPC has much of the northeast circled for slight risk (level 1 of 3, where 3 is cataclysmic.) Dewpoints are low now but they'll be back on the rise tomorrow as winds turn SW. The SPC sees us getting dewpoints near 60 tomorrow. Not incredibly high, but sticky. The limiting factor for severe potential tomorrow is the lapse rates (how quickly you would find the air cooling if you went straight up on a rocket.) The colder it is up there and the warmer/more humid it is down here (steep lapse rate) the better chance for severe weather. There are many other factors, but lapse rate is a biggie. Tomorrow's lapse rate, as SPC states in their discussion, looks only borderline for severe weather right now. Still, a thunderstorm doesn't have to be severe in order to be dangerous on the lake. Remember a severe thunderstorm is one that has damaging wind or damaging hail. All thunderstorms have lightning, which, as we all know, is not good to get hit by. Also, non-severe thunderstorms can still generate wind gusts enough to knock you around if you're on the open lake. Sometimes a non-severe thunderstorm can get its winds into the "severe" threshold while crossing the lake, simply because there's nothing to slow down the wind on the open lake. The NWS may not be able to warn you about that-- just another reason boaters should take all thunderstorms seriously. Tomorrow's thunderstorm threat - severe or not - will be anytime after noon, with chances increasing through the afternoon and decreasing after dark as the activity moves east. Then, as meteotrade said, the cold front will stall along the south coast of New England and might ruin a few picnics down there. On Friday and Saturday the best weather will be in northwestern New England with greater chances for showers and clouds further south and east. Best chances for great weather will be in VT... best chances for lousy weather will be Cape Cod and the islands (including Long Island NY.) Meteotrade's forecast for stunning on the 4th does have good chances at the lake, but that stalled front makes me nervous. I don't like stalling fronts. They don't always stall where and when they're predicted to. When they stall, they sometimes serve as a storm track, as little waves of low pressure develop and scoot along them. Just pray Thursday's front goes way south and east of New England, into the ocean, before it stalls. That way if waves of low pressure start using it as a bowling lane, we'll be beyond the gutter. On Sunday, high pressure moves in and acts as meteorological Ex-Lax, takes control of New England and gives us all a nice day. Highs will be in the mid-80s Thursday with "sticky" humidity. Friday and Saturday we'll see temps in the mid-70s and less humidity. I also post forecasts on the WeatherCenter site... in the upper right corner click on "local forecasts." Includes my weather notes, NWS forecast, and Weather Underground forecast. Discussion from SPC for Thursday: ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF FRONT FROM SE CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NRN PARTS OF OH VALLEY. MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WHERE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT OVER THE NERN STATES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD AND TIGHTENS GRADIENT. A SWLY 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH NE U.S. WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A LOW END 15% SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

07-02-2008, 09:31 AM	#2
meteotrade Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Moultonboro Posts: 95 Thanks: 0 Thanked 16 Times in 6 Posts	In my humble opinion, looks like a pretty good couple of days coming up. A cold front comes through tomorrow afternoon with a period of clouds, showers and a few t-storms, mainly after 3 PM. I doubt the storms will be very strong- dewpoints will be in the 50s which is not really unstable enough for severe weather. Maybe CLA can chime in w/ his thoughts on severe potl tomorrow. Get your boating done early just in case. Then we clear it out tomorrow night and the 4th looks stunning, a real top 10 day with light NW winds, dry air and highs in the upper 70s. Incidentally, the front may stall across southern New England with clouds and lingering showers down there, so the lake will be the place to be relative to other vacation spots further south. Enjoy!

07-02-2008, 11:43 AM	#5
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	Thanks for the reports.... much appreciated! Sounds like whatever weather may be around will not be terribly bad which is good. I'm crossing my fingers that the dew points stay relatively low so the thunderstorm threat is minimal.

07-02-2008, 01:51 PM	#6
meteotrade Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Moultonboro Posts: 95 Thanks: 0 Thanked 16 Times in 6 Posts	I wouldn't put a ton of stock in what SPC says... on MON they had us in a slight risk and nothing happened. Today we were not in the slight risk and we've been absolutely hammered, at least down here in southern New England. I would trust the local forecasters over some Oklahoma boys any day!