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Old 11-30-2007, 11:03 AM   #1
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Default Winnie Weather 2007/2008

It's time to start a weather thread. Where are our resident prognosticaters??
According to Accuweather.com, and others, the Lakes Region is in for a decent storm Sunday night/ Monday.

BT
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Old 11-30-2007, 12:52 PM   #2
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Default 'tis the season

Due to the success of last winter's weather thread I was going to ask the webmaster if it might make more sense to have a "Weather" section on the forum, and within that section we could start threads about individual events, weather questions, etc.

I haven't had a chance to look at the models regarding the expected storm on Sunday night and Monday because I've been busy raking up the late-falling leaves. This has certainly been a strange autumn! As we speak the storm is making its way onshore via the Baja California and Arizona is anticipating some much-needed rain for its drought. The storm is expected to make its way east over the weekend and redevelop off the NE coast.
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Old 11-30-2007, 02:33 PM   #3
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Lightbulb Weather Thread

BT and CLA,

I believe a weather thread would be an outstanding addition to this site. I hope the webmaster agrees.

Regarding this Sunday night and Monday, the models keep pushing the secondary redevelopment more to the south and east. If this trend holds, the lakes region could get 5" to 8" of "white gold" late Sunday and into Monday. The main storm looks like it will go well to our west, but if the coastal redevelopment is off the coast as it is looking to be more and more possible with each model run, that will cutoff the warm air and should support a moderate snowfall.

My big concern is if the coastal secondary does not develop, we could see a moderate to heavy ice storm, with a warm and very moist southweaterly flow above dropping moisture into trapped seasonably very cold air in the valleys. I would rather have the snow. You can ski on snow and you cannot drive on ice.

As with any forecast, time will tell!

Webmaster, please consider adding a weather thread so that those that do not care much about weather projections do not get their threads cluttered with or sometime very wrong forecasts. Great idea BT!!

Happy Holidays to all!

Glad that winter is approaching,

R2B
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Old 11-30-2007, 02:52 PM   #4
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Default Works for me!

Sounds like a great idea! As you guys said it will keep us weather freaks away from the regular forum members who might not want to trudge through the dulldrums of daily weather. What do you say Don?

BT
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Old 12-01-2007, 09:17 AM   #5
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Thumbs up Great Idea!

I also vote thumbs-up for a Forum weather thread category.

I'm no meteorologist, but I can give a weather report from West Alton this morning. It's VERY windy out of the north to northwest, with periodic gusts over 45 mph, and the temperature is going down. At 7 AM the temp. was 20 and we've been watching it creep downward to 18 as I am writing this at around 9:15 AM. Not a nice day to be outside doing any yard work!

Update - I took the following photo at 10:15 AM looking northwest toward Diamond Island:



The temperature was down to 16 degrees when I snapped this shot.
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Old 12-01-2007, 10:17 AM   #6
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Default I Agree

Looking forward to a winter weather thread... (Yuki has gone into hiding already)
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Old 12-01-2007, 12:09 PM   #7
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Default Yuuuuukiiii, where are you kitty?

With the addition of a weather section on the forum, Yuki the Weather Cat could have his own thread. Watch out though, the Mount Washington Observatory's cat gets pawprint-stamped post cards from other cats everywhere. Yuki might rise to the same level of fame!

This morning Winni's gone wild with the passage of the season's first arctic cold blast. At Black Cat WeatherCam the high was 32 at midnight and will not be reached during daylight. The day dawned at 14 degrees and at noontime it is 16. Winds are howling out of the northwest at 18 gusting to 32 mph and today's peak gust so far is 40 mph at 8 a.m.

In response the lake is churning, and wave heights are 2-3 feet with freezing spray.

This morning's early light revealed arctic sea smoke blowing off the water surface. The lake temp is 42 and dropping much more slowly than a month ago, which is typical - it doesn't have as much heat to give up anymore.
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Old 12-01-2007, 02:32 PM   #8
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Default Here kitty, kitty, kitty...

Don't have time to go into details, but I'm currently seeing about a Yuki and a half.
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Old 12-01-2007, 08:23 PM   #9
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Default Out comes the Yuki scale again!

SteveA, How tall is that kitty again? I forgot...
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Old 12-02-2007, 12:24 AM   #10
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos
SteveA, How tall is that kitty again? I forgot...
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Old 12-02-2007, 11:05 AM   #11
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DRH
Update - I took the following photo at 10:15 AM looking northwest toward Diamond Island
Compare that picture to today's, showing ice forming in Alton Bay.
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:02 PM   #12
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Default Thanks!

Thanks for the refresher on Yuki's height! Most forecasters are going for a Y2 storm around here now. I've yet to look at any maps for it because I procrastinated yard work this fall. Looks like I'll be finishing under the lights this evening as first flakes fall!

trfour, those photos make me jealous! Does your friend know how lucky he is to have gotten them? Many storm chasers spend years trying to intercept something like that, before they actually do. Those are the sort of scenes The Weather Channel puts in their calendar.
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Old 12-02-2007, 09:16 PM   #13
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Default Drooling

Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos
trfour, those photos make me jealous! Does your friend know how lucky he is to have gotten them? Many storm chasers spend years trying to intercept something like that, before they actually do. Those are the sort of scenes The Weather Channel puts in their calendar.
I agree CLA...is there a drooling emoticon? I'm thinking Homer Simpson drooling over a doughnut (or maybe an open face club sand wedge) would come close to how I looked when I opened those photos...except I have more hair.

Anybody see Storm Chasers on the Discovery Channel? I want to toss that whiny filmmaker out of the Tornado Intercept Vehicle (TIV) and take his slot. How dare he dis Josh Wurman.
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Old 12-02-2007, 09:44 PM   #14
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Default I see this event as a ........

Y1 level storm. Maybe Y1, plus a wisker or two.

It just seems too fragmented to give the foot the NWS is forecasting. If the secondary gets cranking, then I am wrong, but I do not see the big pressure drops south of LI, NY to make it happen.

R2B
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Old 12-02-2007, 11:23 PM   #15
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Resident 2B
Y1 level storm. Maybe Y1, plus a wisker or two.

It just seems too fragmented to give the foot the NWS is forecasting. If the secondary gets cranking, then I am wrong, but I do not see the big pressure drops south of LI, NY to make it happen.

R2B
Yuki will some serious help to see daylight, if weathers this storm outside...




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Old 12-02-2007, 11:54 PM   #16
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Resident 2B
Y1 level storm. Maybe Y1, plus a wisker or two.
This tells a different story...

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Old 12-03-2007, 12:24 AM   #17
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Default Pressure Fall noticed

There now seems to be a pressure fall happening south of New England & Long Island. Buoy 44017 at 23 NM south of Montauk reports 29.97 and falling rapidly. FAA stations at New Haven, Newport and Martha's Vineyard also report falling rapidly. It's interesting the difference between such a short distance: New Haven is 29.84 while Newport is 29.96, both obs taken at 11:53 pm. Newport's just updated... now 29.91 at 12:16 am.

Been snowing at Black Cat since 9:30 p.m... a dusting on the ground, but hasn't been showing on the radar. Winds jumped up suddenly starting at 10 pm, and have settled on ESE for now. Lake is tossin' and turnin' tonight, more splashover & freeze action along the waterline.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:10 AM   #18
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Default

We're at a Y1-and-a-hair now in Rochester.
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Old 12-03-2007, 09:01 AM   #19
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Wink Yuki is on station..

Yuki is on Station and has added Charlie to his staff.. ( Charlie works cheap..Yuki gives him a tiny cut of his catnip)

Yuki

Name:  Yuki 2.jpg
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Size:  53.2 KB

Charlie

Name:  Charlie 1.jpg
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Yuki figures about .9Y so far... ( Charlie agrees with anything Yuki says.. for catnip)

PS these are file pictures... both are still in intense negoiations for this years contract... and they have a real tough agent....

Leo...

Name:  Leo 06.jpg
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Old 12-03-2007, 02:04 PM   #20
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Default Yuki and Charlie, Weather Observers

Thank you for posting photos of Yuki and Charlie. They sure are handsome fellows! It is my guess that when it comes to weather observing, Yuki prefers do it from the inside looking out, while Charlie is more of a hands-on ...erů paws-on participant. If the truth be known, he is likely the one who gets out there and does the actual measurements of snow accumulation. The catnip is always a good incentive, of course.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:44 PM   #21
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Default R2B right so far

So far you've called this one, R2B. Black Cat has 8.4" snow since 9:30 last night. One of the guys at the NWS just told me there's one more band of snow expected for this area in the next couple hours and then the major accumulation should end.

It'll be a Y1 storm here, plus a whisker-- as you said. You didn't specify whisker "length" or "width" so you get the victory. It's going to be whisker length!

Now, Yuki... if ya wanna be a weathercat, ya gotta set paws in the snow every so often! Put a camouflage sweater and a mini 'Smokey bear' hat on Charlie and have him make Yuki drop and give him 20 in the snow before marching into the Friskies hall!
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Old 12-03-2007, 10:17 PM   #22
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Default If the coastal got going sooner........

CLA,

This was a very close to a big one for the lakes region. Downeast Maine should get a widespread 12"+.

If the coastal secondary got going a bit sooner, there would have been 12" to 18" at the lake, maybe more. But by 10:00 last night, to me it was not happening. It deepened around midnight as you noted with the 44017 bouy report. Although pressure at 44017 was dropping before midnight, it was not dropping fast enough to support the models. It would have been great to have 44025 operational so that we could better see where the secondary center really was, but it has been out-of-service for almost two months now. This is a significant blind spot.

My projections are for the Weirs area and the storm was about what I expected here. I was expecting 7" to 8", the high end of the 5" to 8" range I projected the afternoon of November 30th. Thanks to the secondary for holding the cold air aloft and preventing what would have been a significant and wide-spread ice storm in the lakes area.

This should be a great winter weather-wise. The last two were a bit boring, at least until last Valentine's Day.

Great work from you and BT regarding the efforts for a weather thread. It would be great to have.

his is one of the most interesting places to live weather-wise with so many factors to be considered. Great to see more posts from Rose. She is very knowledgeable. I use her idea about the Mount Washington auto road for seeing what is happening at the mid-levels very frequently. It is like having realtime soundings.

R2B
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Old 12-04-2007, 01:29 AM   #23
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Resident 2B
CLA,

This was a very close to a big one for the lakes region. Downeast Maine should get a widespread 12"+.

I use her idea about the Mount Washington auto road for seeing what is happening at the mid-levels very frequently. It is like having realtime soundings.

R2B
Another good cross section is the AIRMAP stations (UNH.) They're building a model that is specific to New England's weather. PSU is involved on the meteorology end, and UNH is using the data to help better predict air quality around here, since it can vary from being the tailpipe of the nation in summer to among the cleanest when we have air coming from the arctic (like now.)

You may have already seen this. If not, their monitoring stations form a diagonal cross-section of New England from Isles of Shoals to MWN. The data's always online, on their web site, and also includes detailed AQ data.

www.airmap.unh.edu

As for this snowstorm, Black Cat ended the day with 10.8". That last band dropped over 2 inches in a hurry. You're still covered though - it's still a Y1 + a whisker, since I've seen cat whiskers 4 inches long.

Interestingly enough, the lake effect snow machine is in hyperdrive tonight, as one of the TV mets pointed out, the squalls are making it from Buffalo all the way to the ocean and re-energizing. Seems in the last couple of hours radar has shown a train of snow riding this lake from NW to SE, originating in the St. Lawrence.

19 degrees and dropping, with NW winds howling again.
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Old 12-04-2007, 12:38 PM   #24
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Default airmap

CLA,

Thanks for the tip on airmap.

Overall, once it was over, this storm dropped more snow than I thought it would. The backside got me!

R2B
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Old 12-04-2007, 01:19 PM   #25
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Default NBC's in town

R2B, that backlash will kill a good forecast any day! Always hard to tell how strong it will be, and how local landforms will affect it. Last winter we had 4 inches of unexpected snow one night, thanks to a train of snow squalls coming off the Great Lakes and getting amplified by passing over the Squam Mountains.

If you missed waking up to a live report from Meredith on this morning's NBC Today Show (a meteorologist up to his knees in snow) you can still catch it on MSNBC. During their afternoon newscasts they're reporting live from Town Docks.

I would guess that they're also going on the Nightly News with Brian Williams tonight.
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Old 12-06-2007, 09:16 AM   #26
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Default Ski areas did good

Cannon MT 22 inches
Waterville 18-20
Jackpot? 36 at Jay Peak
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Old 12-06-2007, 09:20 AM   #27
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Default

Canis Lupus ... nice to see your "A" cam up and working again. Great view.
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Old 12-06-2007, 01:09 PM   #28
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Default Snowman

I am anxiously awaiting the arrival of that huge snowman on Route 11A in Gilford. He made the WMUR news last year and was a sight to behold. Other snowmen architects throughout the state got into a competition to build a bigger and better one, but no one came close. Those folks had snowman construction down to a science. Hope they will work their magic again this year.
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Old 12-06-2007, 01:39 PM   #29
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Default Cam's up

Sal, thank you. The Netcam just got back from its vacation in So. California. The people at Stardot Technologies put a new CCD sensor in it. The old one had lines in it.
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