Irene??

[Resident 2B]

The five day NHC forecast track is getting very interesting. Five days in hurricane forecasting is a very long time. However, the upper levels support a track the could give us some wind and rain around Monday. It looks like it could bend back to the north on Sunday putting the storm inland through the Hudson Valley. This would leave us on the strong side of what would be remaining of the wind shield.

Time to start draining the lake a bit!

R2B

[LIforrelaxin]

Don't get on the ban wagon of needing to draw down the lake to much... they have opened the dam some today... but we really don't want to see it opened to far, and then find out that we don't get anything from Irene.

Right now the lake is flirting with 504 feet.... full lake is 504.32.... no .32 is equal to to about 4 inches.... that is a lot of water... that can fall.... now if someone knee jerk reacts to Irene, and drains the lake to 503.5 feet... that is 6 more inches the lake will have.... but it is also 6 inches of depth we don't have if we get nothing from Irene....

My self I think the lake level is fine right now either way... the lake operators and adjusting the dam, to stop the upward trend, and start bring the lake back down...

If they bring it down to quick, the weirs channel gets to be a pain to navigate... and I would hate to see that happen unnecessarily...

[Blue Thunder]

As R2B says, we are five days out. A lot can change. We will be inundated with possible scenarios from this point on. Bottom line...pay attention and be prepared. It's been quite a number of years since we have had to deal with something like this. No reason to panic or jump off a cliff.....

BT

[Winnisquamguy]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

As R2B says, we are five days out. A lot can change. We will be inundated with possible scenarios from this point on. Bottom line...pay attention and be prepared. It's been quite a number of years since we have had to deal with something like this. No reason to panic or jump off a cliff.....

BT

I agree no need to panic just yet. Hurricane Bob was 20 years ago (August 19) and the last one to hit New England.

[This'nThat]

The track as of Wed morning puts the eye just West of Boston @2:00am Monday with winds anywhere from 75-95 mph! Everyone can read the cautions above about "well, it's 5 days off and lots of things can change". While true, it's still good to prepare.

• Is it best to take the boat out of the water?
• Board up the windows?
• Secure the docks in case the water rises?

Who has the experience for this situation, and what did you do the last time a hurricane went through the area?

BTW, according to this track, the hurricane will first make landfall in New England. A very, very rare event.

[SAMIAM]

Usually, these storms lose their punch as soon as they hit land. The coast may take a hit but I don't expect the lakes region will fare too badly.....never know, though.......always good to watch.

[Resident 2B]

It is still four or so days away, but the currently projected path is a worse case path for most of eastern New England. Not at all sure how the mountains will break down or enhance the winds. CLA has the local knowledge on that.

Sustained 60 MPH winds over a period of eight hours is a lot different than a heavy thunderstorm. Waves build over time, so duration is a concern. The left side of the storm is also usually wetter than the right side, so water could be a bigger concern than wind. Bottom line is it is still too early to tell what will happen, but it is not too early to begin to plan based upon the forecast.

Reference storms for the current path and strength are from the 1950s and early 1960s. That said, every storm is different. This storm has yet to reach its peak and from the last several radar shots, she looks like she is intensifying.

Interesting days ahead!

R2B

[Newbiesaukee]

Having lost our house in Hurricane Andrew, I am very familiar with these things and the aftermath. A lot can change in a few days, but certainly now is the time to think about it. I would assume if we are affected that electricity and its restoration would be a major problem and although there are other things to prepare for, I would suggest filling up the tanks in cars and getting cash. ATMs, gas stations do not work after power outages nor do computers in stores and cash is king. This may seem trivial and, it is, until it is not. Home generators are nice, I have one, but realistically, the propane ones will only last a few days and a major disruption would last much longer. I realize this is not FL and this is not Andrew but some thought now would be useful.

One of the reasons we are here in summer is to avoid the hurricane season in FL as Andrew was a devastating event for us. The irony of Irene is not lost on me.

[jrc]

Originally Posted by This'nThat

• Is it best to take the boat out of the water?
• Board up the windows?
• Secure the docks in case the water rises?

Who has the experience for this situation, and what did you do the last time a hurricane went through the area?

BTW, according to this track, the hurricane will first make landfall in New England. A very, very rare event.

Assuming we really will get a direct hit as shown in the models, which is unlikely:

My plan is to leave my boat in the water. It feels like it would be more secure at its dock then on blocks and jackstands. My marina is very protected, if I had a more open spot, I would pull the boat. If I had a trailer I would pull the boat. If I was on the coast where it was predicted to hit, I would pull the boat. The ocean can get serious storm surge, the lake will not. It may rise a foot at most from rain and that will take a day or two.

On Sunday I will put extra lines to the dock, set up to distribute the load, one post failure should not set the boat free. I will criss cross ropes to secure the canvas. I thought about taking the canvas down but that guarantees some water issues. I'll put out every fender I have, to fend my boat of the dock and other boats off my boat.

My docks are concrete, so I don't plan to do anything. If I had floating docks, I would seriously weigh pulling them out. If I had seasonal docks, again weigh pulling them out, but at least I'd secure them. Rope is cheap.

I don't plan on boarding up the windows but I wouldn't fault anyone who did, especially an exposed picture window.

[Resident 2B]

I see the folks at the dam have opened up the flow significantly in the last two hours.

I understand this will lower the lake level from the great levels we have enjoyed this summer. However, I believe the dam operators are doing the prudent thing at this time. Hard to see how we would not get a very significant rain from this system. Winds and wind direction are still TBD, but the rain looks pretty certain.

R2B

[AC2717]

The weathe channel is projecting this to be a Catagory 1 hurricane coming right through RI through Boston and still a catagory 1 when it is up in Maine after crossing NH

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker


I am not one to panic, but it is making me rethink if I stay up at the camp sunday night or not to keep an eye on things

[sunsationdave]

Where can I find a chart of the lake height or dam out flow.The bizer chart is every thursday
If the lake goes down more than 12 inches my boat will be stuck on the lift
untill it comes back up .
Thanks

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Link: Winnipesaukee Lake Level Data
_________________________________


Link: Winnipesaukee Discharge Information

Wednesday August 24th 6:00 am readings

The level of Lake Winnipesaukee is at 503.95.
The discharge at Lakeport Dam is 430 cfs, but will be increased to 1050 cfs later in the morning.

[jrc]

The Bizer page links to this NH DES site:

http://www2.des.state.nh.us/RTi_Home...pesaukee#graph


I very much doubt they will drop the lake more than a couple inches before the storm gets here. It looks we are about 6 inches above the mean for this date. That coupled with a pounding of rain from the storm will be troublesome.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by sunsationdave

Where can I find a chart of the lake height or dam out flow.The bizer chart is every thursday
If the lake goes down more than 12 inches my boat will be stuck on the lift
untill it comes back up .
Thanks

Here is a link to the State's data and charts: http://www2.des.state.nh.us/RTi_Home/winni.asp

Just click on the little green boxes.

R2B

[sunsationdave]

Thanks
Just had to look at the charts longer to understand them

[Onshore]

Subject: HSEM news release: Hurricane Irene Preparations



STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE

Department of Safety

Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management



NEWS RELEASE



Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Contact: Jim Van Dongen, 603-223-3641



HSEM URGES PRECAUTIONS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES



CONCORD, N.H. – Hurricane Irene, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first storm, is approaching the U.S. mainland and is expected to reach New England over the weekend.



The N.H. Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management recommends that New Hampshire residents and visitors stay current on storm watches and warnings and take precautions to protect themselves and their families.



“Hurricanes pose dual threats: high winds that can down trees and power lines and heavy rain that can cause flooding,” said Christopher M, Pope, director of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. “Even if a hurricane is downgraded to a tropical storm or doesn’t directly strike New Hampshire it can push significant rainfall into the state. Flooding will be a serious threat.”



Pope recommended the following hurricane precautions for all New Hampshire residents and visitors:

• Hurricanes can be unpredictable in terms of their exact pathway, wind strength and rainfall. Everyone should monitor weather information from the National Weather Service, radio and TV broadcasts or Internet sources.
• Clear your yard of toys, lawn furniture and other objects that could become dangerous missiles in high winds.
• Stock up on water, non-perishable food and other supplies to be able to shelter at homes for up to three days.
• Prepare for power outages by stockpiling flashlights and fresh batteries and a battery powered radio. If you have a generator, ensure that it is professionally installed and can be operated without causing a carbon monoxide hazard. Report outages to your electric utility.
• If local officials order an evacuation, respond immediately.
• Use text messaging to communicate with family and friends during a storm if possible, rather than cell phone calls. Texts use much less bandwidth than cell phone calls and messages are more likely to get through.

“People need to be aware of their surroundings and pay attention to local conditions that present a hazard during high winds or flooding,” Pope said. “I also encourage people to be good neighbors and check on elderly or handicapped relatives or acquaintances.”



For detailed information on emergency preparedness for individuals, families, businesses and organization see the state emergency preparedness website, ReadyNH at www.readynh.nh.gov.

[MAXUM]

Cell phone isn't going to do you any good if the cell towers loose power.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I've been waiting and watching, watching and waiting. Sunday is the day Irene would be here, lasting into Monday. BUT, it's too early to say "We're going to get a hurricane." It is NOT too early to take care of all those preparations that you should always have ready, at all times, anyway. Lots of people don't live prepared; and for them, times like this are the reminder to "do what you should have already done anyway."

So, if you're not one of those people who practices preparedness as a part of daily living, then now is a good time to start.

Otherwise... at this point in time with Irene...

1) Remember that Gloria hit in 1985, Bob in 1991, and we're all still here. Neither storm was "nothing," so don't take any of these storms lightly. Downed wires and falling trees are dangerous, whether they fall in a hurricane or a random afternoon thunderstorm.

2) Remember that it doesn't have to be a big storm to make damage in the lakes region. R2B mentioned that local effects will play a role. In 1999, Tropical Storm Floyd ( a former major hurricane) passed east of New England. Almost everywhere got a wind-driven rainstorm, but the wind funneled between various mountain ranges and hills and amplified, creating pockets of major damage well inland. The coast was spared, by comparison.

When I become more confident of Irene's track, I'll be able to talk about possible or likely *local* effects. In the meantime, plan on an early-season nor'easter with rain instead of snow.

[Pineedles]

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

Too early to tell. These tropical storms are very hard to predict a few days out. Check the forecast on Friday afternoon and make a safe decision then.

Stay safe!

R2B

[trfour]

R2B nailed it!.. If it were me, I wouldn't want to be traveling toward bad weather. However, a lot can happen between now and Sunday. Keep an eye on this one.

Storm track as of this evening from the weather channel;

[jrc]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

Looking at the latest charts, you will get to Hartford well before the storm. But if the conditions change, you could be on the road during the storm. Anyway you slice it, it could be a rough ride with rain and wind. I would delay till after the storm if possible. If not, leave as early as possible to make sure you are safe in Hartford before the storm hits. If it hits New England hard, knocking out power and phones, which town do you want to be in?

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Cell phone isn't going to do you any good if the cell towers loose power.

nearly every cell site has generator backup power.....

[Pineedles]

Thanks all! I will wait to see what the track of the storm does. As of this morning it doesn't look like it has changed much, but as you all say its too early to tell yet. I thought about the heavy rain but hadn't thought about downed wires and trees. Thanks.

[LIforrelaxin]

So I was reading the reports for the National Huricane Center to be found here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

The report in full with what I believe to be important in bold:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.




In short it looks like Irene will be coming for Dinner over the weekend....I plan to be at the camp for the storm to keep an eye on things. I will probably run some extra security lines to the boat for safety. And potentially take the Jet ski out of the water. I will also throw the lawn chairs and tables into the boat shed to prevent them from scattering.

[Newbiesaukee]

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by Newbiesaukee

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

THere is, but insurance does cover stupidity, in an event like this, it would be a act of God making the stuff move around, so even though they would be at fault, the recovery from them would be slim to none, and repair work would be more than likely jsut paid out by your insurance company

SIDE NOTE:: MAKE SURE YOUR INSURANCE POLICIES FOR ALL YOUR PROPERTY (any type house boat, jetksi....) THAT MIGHT BE IN DANGER IS PAID UP TO DATE

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by Newbiesaukee

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

Might be your chance to "secure" some of those valuable building materials that just "happened" to get lost in the storm.

[LIforrelaxin]

What just at my favorite Hurricane site and they are showing Irene coming further inland as of 2 p.m. It is appearing to come on land further and further south, which will help us up here as it will begin to lose intensity sooner once it hits land.

[jerseyonbear]

You should be ok . New Jersey has issued a state of emergency already. Looks like the storm is going to come on land near CapeMay and continue on over NYC. Hope all are safe and prepared.

[Winni-Retired]

This was just issued for the area approx 10 miles north of our NC beach condo ... Our barrier beach island will be next, I am sure.

My rentals will have to leave a day early and the one coming in will be delayed, but it is better than being injured or killed.

But it's only Aug, so all can be repaired before we use it in the spring and the rental season begins anew in 2012

Right now it's off to our NH marina today to double up the lines and add a few more bumpers and hope my Wolfeboro side of the lake is treated well


Hurricane Irene - Advisory #3 - Thursday, August 25 - 1 pm
Mandatory Evacuation Ordered!

A proclamation declaring a State of Emergency in Emerald Isle, and a mandatory evacuation has been ordered.

There is a mandatory evacuation ordered for all visitors to Emerald Isle beginning immediately.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all residents and property owners for Friday, August 26.

As of 8 pm on Friday night, access to Emerald Isle will be restricted, and a curfew will be in effect until further notice.

No one will be permitted to access Emerald Isle after 8 pm on Friday night, and it will be illegal to be outside and off of one's own property
[/B]

[CanisLupusArctos]

The computer guidance seems to be settling on a track that takes the eye of Irene from a landfall near New York City (!!) up the Connecticut River: Hartford, Springfield, Lebanon, Littleton... and then into southern Quebec where it will lose its tropical characteristics and just be "a storm."

There is still some uncertainty about THIS track, but the margin of error is becoming less with every run of the computer models.

It appears that the storm's CENTER (eye) will track to our WEST.

IF that happens, we will be on the windy side of the system, where the wind comes up from the south. On that side of a tropical system, there is more wind damage and less rain. There is an increased chance of tornadoes.

Tornadoes are a part of most tropical systems. That is because air and water behave according to the same principles. When you paddle through the water, you may create big swirls in the water. If a swirl is big enough, you may see smaller swirls coming off of it, and spinning around it. The same thing happens in the air, on a larger scale. The center of a hurricane is like a giant swirl, and it's common for smaller ones to spin off of it.

Tornadoes that occur with hurricanes and tropical storms don't usually get to "Great Plains" strength like the EF-5 we saw in Joplin MO earlier this year. However, an EF-2 like we had in NH back in 2008 would not be out of the question.

Back in 2004 the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie produced a tornado over Meredith that became a waterspout over Meredith Bay. Sucking up all that water (which is heavy) is probably what killed it. It was on a path that would've taken it across Meredith Neck toward Black Cat Island. Instead, my weather station got an extremely heavy rainfall, quite suddenly. Looking back on it, I now wonder how much of that was actually rain that formed in the atmosphere, and how much of it was lake water coming back down.

To the WEST of the hurricane's eye, we can expect record rainfall but less wind. That will be falling on many areas that are already "topped off" for groundwater. The NYC area, for instance, has had a ton of rain lately. Bottom line: "River's gonna rise..."

Local effects from this storm will be easier to foretell tomorrow when the track becomes as certain as it's going to be prior to hitting. At the moment I would say expect strong winds from the southeast, shifting to south and then southwest (strongest), then to west (clearing) and finally northwest (decreasing, becoming chilly). That is all based on the forecast track issued 5 pm by the NHC.

[trfour]

Still early, and yet this storm needs paying attention to!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/...news/#44279864

Stay safe and be prepared everyone!
Terry
__________________________________

[Resident 2B]

After reviewing the 11 PM advisory from the NHC and doing some plotting of the forecast coordinates for 72 and 96 hours out, I am not completely sold on winds from the southerly direction any more. I want to point out, until the 11 PM advisory, I was thinking southerly winds, but I am not so sure anymore.

Looking at the plotting I did, the storm will pass within 20 to 30 miles to the west of the lake based on the forecasted locations at 72 and 96 hours and assuming a straight line betweem these coordinates, not a great assumption, but that is what I plotted. That is based on forecasted storm locations, 3 to 4 days out. There will be an error in this forecasted track because tropical systems do not behave as well as the computer models suggest. If the storm moves slightly right of the forecasted track, 40 miles or so, something entirely possible, the winds will be easterly swinging northerly and backing to the west. There could even be a calm period as the eye crosses.

Bottom line here is southerly winds are not a certainty any longer and we all need to prepare for winds from any direction at this time. This thing is forecasted to come very close to us here in the lakes region at this time!

Keep paying close attention to the NWS forecasts.

Be safe!

R2B

[SteveA]

Track as of this AM.



Looks like it moved east. Still a couple of days away, and as R2B said, is likely to change a number of times.

[chipj29]

Either way, we look to be in line for a boatload of rain!

[jrc]

please don't say "boatload of rain", I'm trying to figure out how to keep the rain out of my boat

[CateP]

My house is five blocks from the beach on the Jersey shore and my 25ft sailboat is in the water at a marina. I am presently at the lake renting a cabin. I am staying through the storm and hope and pray my house and boat are still there after this storm.

Hope all remain safe up here at the lake too.

[riverat]

this current track brings it over the belknap mts and over elacoya with wind speed of 74mph!

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by jrc

please don't say "boatload of rain", I'm trying to figure out how to keep the rain out of my boat

Just have the camper canvas??? No Mooring or cockpit cover?

[Lucky2Bhere]

Could someone explain what happens very close to the eye of the storm. Is it strongest by the eyewall? Do the wind vs rain differences still hold on the east and west?

[CateP]

Originally Posted by Lucky2Bhere

Could someone explain what happens very close to the eye of the storm. Is it strongest by the eyewall? Do the wind vs rain differences still hold on the east and west?

Strongest winds are on the east side of the eye...but this storm is so big I don't think it will matter much where the eye tracks.

[Winni-Retired]

My boat is docked at Lanes End for the summer.

It has been pulled and my personal fear factor has now dropped to almost zero.

Great effort by Davis Ladd, Theresa and Skip

Thank You

[Dowislandman]

This is DowIslandMan(aka NOBODYKNOWS....)
Oh Man!!!! We have not been up there to the northern part of the lake and Dow Island and with this thing.. this this thing..., now this thing...(oh my lord the media is really pumping her up big time - I need to get some 3 weeks of beer supplies on my way home tonight!) approaching and being a flatliner from Mass, wondering what we islanders should do? No boats are currently in the water - they are racked in a building(wind strength criteria of this building I do not know???) We do have a swim raft presently out so should we take it out or tie it down some more. Kayaks and canoes are on a rack but are not tied down! Our front dock has loose cedar wood inserts and these have floated before.... Should we take them out or tie them down or weight them down?
And ah yes that other island stuff like tubes, lawn furniture, plastic storage boxes, flags, umbrellas, grills are all strewn about loose on the property. Should we B-Line up there and batten down the hatches, store stuff and come home on Saturday afternoon before the storm???

Nothing we can do about the trees....

[LIforrelaxin]

The latest from the Nation Hurricane Center.....


000
WTNT34 KNHC 261445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE IRENE NEARING THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS....


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO DRUM POINT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Loony Singer]

according to the average of the various models on stormpulse.com, , the eye looks like it will pass...let's see...right over our house! We're down in MA...I just had a 3.5 hr. operation this AM. So to take the storm down here or up there? We're getting the power boat pulled, so that should be OK. But I couldn't do much up there anyway...right arm is in a sling for 4-6 weeks. Bad timing all the way around

[LongBay]

I was in an office building in downtown Boston this week riding the earthquake out and would rather be up here riding the storm out. When Hurricane Bob rolled through I was up here on the Lake and it was not all that bad. Meanwhile, back down in MA the beaches were getting pounded.

[CanisLupusArctos]

It now appears that Irene will be downgraded to a tropical storm before it gets here.

However, it also appears that the eye will pass over, or very close to, this lake. That complicates the forecast -- a lot. Most of our effects from the storm are going to be localized, due to the many hills and mountains we have, as well as the wide-open expanse of the lake itself, which often serves as a runway for wind flow. These local effects are highly dependent on which direction the wind is blowing FROM. If wind hits one side of Gunstock or Red Hill, one thing happens. If it hits the other side, something very different happens.

With the eye of the storm -- the center of the whole storm's counter-clockwise circulation -- expected to track right over the lake, that means the margin of error is equally to either side of the lake.

--If it stays to the west of us, we'll get the strongest winds from the south and southwest.

--If it passes east of us, we'll get the strongest winds from the northeast and north.

--If it goes right over us, we'll get the strongest winds from the east AND the west -- with east winds suddenly dropping off to near calm, then coming back just as strong from the west.

All three scenarios are a good possibility. This much is for sure: We're going to get a big wind-driven rain storm. Local effects (like hills, and the lake) are definitely going to play a role. What kind of role depends totally on what direction(s) the wind blows from.

Here are some of the local effects that have decided our weather before:

* The wind-facing side of any significant hill or mountain will get a lot more rain than the opposite side. The sides of hills facing away from the wind may get much lighter rain -- for as long as the wind stays blowing from the same direction.

* A space between two mountain ranges, such as the Route 25 corridor between Red Hill and the Ossipee Range, can be a wind tunnel. When wind squeezes through there it increases in speed until it reaches the other side. This is not the only "wind tunnel" we have in the lakes region, but is just one easily-visible example. This particular wind tunnel is aligned north-south and works best with winds from those directions.

* The lake itself, aligned NW-SE, has often served as a runway for ocean wind that is strong enough to reach Alton. If any weather is blowing in from the ocean and is strong enough to reach Alton, it can then follow the lake right up to Center Harbor. Locations just a mile north or south of the lake may not experience that weather at all. Wind on the lake reaches more of its potential because there isn't much friction with land to slow it down. By the time it goes from one end of the lake to the other, it's usually a lot faster than when it started out, and the waves underneath it are worthy of the ocean.

* There are many points on the lake shore, and over 200 islands. When wind has to bend around them, it often increases dramatically in that location only.

The main theme with Irene, for the lakes region, will be flooding and wind damage. We're no strangers to either threat here in NH. It happens all the time. What is different this time is that the storm is affecting such a large area of the nation that our usual cleanup help may be busy with their own areas.

The kind of weather that Irene threatens to bring to NH is all stuff we've had recently, but not on the same day.

1. The Alstead floods and road washouts might happen again, in a different town.

2. A tornado like the Raymond-Barnstead-Effingham tornado of 2008 might happen again, on a different path. Tornadoes happen within tropical systems and their remnants.

3. Damage similar to the April 2007 Nor'easter may happen again, in different places.

The question "Where?" is not one that can be answered in advance of the storm. Humans just can't do that.

Statewide, there will probably be numerous roads closed due to flooding, downed trees and wires. Our summer thunderstorms bring that sort of thing all the time to individual locations while areas 10 miles away get nothing. Irene's damage will be over a much larger area.

[SteveA]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...track#contents

Moved just a little to the west from yesterdays track. I assume it could, (will?) move again before it actually arrives.

[fpartri497]

O.K. Irene come on, Im ready and waiting

[Jonas Pilot]

Wind forecast Wolfeboro area.


Heavy Rain 7am --- 6pm

Winds start to pick up around 7am to ~ 22 mph.

Wind increase around 3pm

3pm 30+ mph east
4pm 35 mph east
5pm 39 mph east
6pm 40+ mph south east
7pm 50 mph ssw
8pm 50+ mph sw
9pm 45 mph wsw
10pm 35 mph west
11pm 25 mph west
12am 25 mph wnw

[Pineedles]

Made final decision not to make trip Sunday and ride out storm in CT. Looking at the anticipated path we're 3,000' to the west of it with home in CT and cottage in Moultonborough.

[Slickcraft]

Info is on the Alton web site as to what to bring and general rules as to pets, etc.
http://alton.nh.gov/Main.asp

[Mirror Lake's BB]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Made final decision not to make trip Sunday and ride out storm in CT. Looking at the anticipated path we're 3,000' to the west of it with home in CT and cottage in Moultonborough.

Both 3000'? Play the lottery.

But on the serious note, hope all works well for you and everyone there up north. We will arrive from Phila area maybe Tuesday. We may have issues down here.

[jetskier]

Hi all,

The following link is a wind speed calculator for locations along the path of Irene. Laconia will peak at about 6 pm tomorrow night at around 60 mph.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/sp...?p1=News_links

Jetskeir

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by jetskier

Hi all,

The following link is a wind speed calculator for locations along the path of Irene. Laconia will peak at about 6 pm tomorrow night at around 60 mph.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/sp...?p1=News_links

Jetskeir

Here, our topography is going to dictate the final result of Irene. The general winds may be 60 mph. Hills will knock it down to 10 mph in some places and bump it up to 85 mph in others. People a quarter mile away from such places will not even be aware until they see it for themselves later. Our hills are also going to create highly localized rainfall amounts. Downwind from a hill, less rain. On the wind-facing side of a hill, much more.

The track forecast makes this a very difficult call for the lake. Farther away from the storm track, outside the margin of error, it's now easy to say which direction the wind will come from. But not here.

[SteveA]

Irene has moved west. New track has moved West. From the scale on the map, looks to be a 25-30 mile move to the West from the 5 AM track.

[Pineedles]

Whew, now I have no worries.


At least about my Moultonborough home.