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Old 12-07-2023, 09:09 PM   #1
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Default Ice Story CBS Boston

Emerson said that on an average year, Ice-out is mid-to-third week of April. "Within the last decade, we've had some early years, even records. You have thinner ice, mild winters and don't have the ice build up."


https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/n...3N7EQuJe83nfT0
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:56 AM   #2
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Climate change has become a political football.
I can attest to warmer climate as I've been up here for over 50 years. Snowstorms used to be mostly light and powdery now they are mostly heavy, wet, and icy.
Is there anything we can do about it, probably not.
But doing nothing will change nothing.
Maybe the NH lakes region climate will be like North Carolina's some day?
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Old 12-08-2023, 11:55 AM   #3
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I try to keep an open mind, and it is sad how many folks do not. But one thing I remind people of when discussing this stuff, is that a little over 10,000 years ago, what we see now at the lake was nothing more than a huge rocky glacier as far as one could see, with ice a mile thick. Thousands/millions of years before that, it was warm. And before that, more glaciers! And so on.

So, we should absolutely, positively treat our environment better and reduce carbon emissions and make all the recommended changes to our behaviors. BUT...it is likely that we have only just scratched the surface of knowing what really goes on with our planet, and major climate changes are sure to occur again, irrespective of what we do or what we burn or what we don't do or burn.

Try to keep an open mind!
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Old 12-08-2023, 12:04 PM   #4
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Very well said. I have attempted to make that point various times within this Forum. I would be wholeheartedly supportive of a conservational approach to the environment, rather than the Green New Deal approach. Keep the money and politics out of it. Bring back the crying Indian!
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Old 12-08-2023, 12:06 PM   #5
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Default Less snow?

Less snow? I don't mind not putting chains on my tires and roads restricted to "chains only" but, environmentally, we were all better off before the 100% black road policies with less salt and other chemicals seeping into the water shed.
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Old 12-08-2023, 12:36 PM   #6
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It isn't that humans are doing all of it... just we are speeding it up.

The politics are simply we tax the things we don't want, and subsidize the things we do want.

The mini-splits and electric vehicles allow us to use grid capacity that we have to pay for but goes unused. The support for high efficiency wood and pellet stoves allow us to short-cycle the carbon. Our push for better windows and building envelopes allow us to actually conserve energy.

I once saw someone suggest that NH use more nuclear. Only one problem. Most of NH's electric generation is nuclear... a second reactor at Seabrook would require a transmission upgrade - something unlikely to happen after the reaction to the Northern Pass... and the only other location with the existing transmission infrastructure is the only coal plant currently in NH.
Arguing to shut the coal plant permanently would create a political storm not worth the effort.
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Old 12-08-2023, 01:14 PM   #7
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It isn't that humans are doing all of it... just we are speeding it up.
I guess this is where we disagree. We have 150 years of data. How do you or anyone else know we are speeding it up. Yes, I've heard scientist say this and that, but the statistician in me knows that it is irresponsible to draw conclusions from such an incredibly small sample. I also heard what experts said about the virus and we all know how that turned out.

We know climate change exists because of what JayR noted. You are correct, we tax things we don't want and we subsidize things we do want. How has that worked so far? Car dealerships have lots of EVs that nobody wants. The wind and solar industries are a scam, spending billions (maybe trillions) of dollars with no meaningful impact on our energy supply. But, we vote in politicians who supposedly represent the will of the people. I guess we want high energy costs.

That said, it seems that the winters are milder than when I was a kid.
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Old 12-08-2023, 01:21 PM   #8
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It isn't that humans are doing all of it... just we are speeding it up.

The politics are simply we tax the things we don't want, and subsidize the things we do want.

The mini-splits and electric vehicles allow us to use grid capacity that we have to pay for but goes unused. The support for high efficiency wood and pellet stoves allow us to short-cycle the carbon. Our push for better windows and building envelopes allow us to actually conserve energy.

I once saw someone suggest that NH use more nuclear. Only one problem. Most of NH's electric generation is nuclear... a second reactor at Seabrook would require a transmission upgrade - something unlikely to happen after the reaction to the Northern Pass... and the only other location with the existing transmission infrastructure is the only coal plant currently in NH.
Arguing to shut the coal plant permanently would create a political storm not worth the effort.
Seabrook's reactor is approx 1200 MW/h so it can support close to a million homes. Transmission lines would be needed if they had built Seabrook Unit 2 as originally planned.

Nuclear is a solid, carbon free power source so we need to have it as part of our US energy strategy at least for the short-term. It is very difficult to bring new units online in the US. Vogtle brought their first Westinghouse AP1000 on line in GA a year or so ago. It can be done but it is pricy!

https://www.georgiapower.com/company/plant-vogtle.html
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Old 12-08-2023, 01:29 PM   #9
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I guess this is where we disagree. We have 150 years of data. How do you or anyone else know we are speeding it up. Yes, I've heard scientist say this and that, but the statistician in me knows that it is irresponsible to draw conclusions from such an incredibly small sample. I also heard what experts said about the virus and we all know how that turned out.

We know climate change exists because of what JayR noted. You are correct, we tax things we don't want and we subsidize things we do want. How has that worked so far? Car dealerships have lots of EVs that nobody wants. The wind and solar industries are a scam, spending billions (maybe trillions) of dollars with no meaningful impact on our energy supply. But, we vote in politicians who supposedly represent the will of the people. I guess we want high energy costs.

That said, it seems that the winters are milder than when I was a kid.
They are milder Keith! I compare humans to incandescent light bulbs. When I was in grade school in the early 70s (i'm 59) the world population was approx 4B, it is now north of 8B. If I turn on 8 100W bulbs in a room, the temperature will rise more in that room than had I turned on 4. We have a population problem in our greenhouse.
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Old 12-08-2023, 01:44 PM   #10
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They are milder Keith! I compare humans to incandescent light bulbs. When I was in grade school in the early 70s (i'm 59) the world population was approx 4B, it is now north of 8B. If I turn on 8 100W bulbs in a room, the temperature will rise more in that room than had I turned on 4. We have a population problem in our greenhouse.
I love the analogy. The earth has a surface area of 197 million square miles, with land taking up 57 million square miles. It is hard to determine whether doubling, tripling, quadrupling, etc. would effect temperature. When we were kids, the experts were predicting global cooling. For all we know a solar flare or sun spot has made it warmer.

I am for conservation. However, we must balance that with the fact that cheap energy has brought more people out of poverty than almost anything else.

I hope you are well, John! Merry Christmas to you and your family!
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Old 12-08-2023, 01:52 PM   #11
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I guess this is where we disagree. We have 150 years of data. How do you or anyone else know we are speeding it up. Yes, I've heard scientist say this and that, but the statistician in me knows that it is irresponsible to draw conclusions from such an incredibly small sample. I also heard what experts said about the virus and we all know how that turned out.

We know climate change exists because of what JayR noted. You are correct, we tax things we don't want and we subsidize things we do want. How has that worked so far? Car dealerships have lots of EVs that nobody wants. The wind and solar industries are a scam, spending billions (maybe trillions) of dollars with no meaningful impact on our energy supply. But, we vote in politicians who supposedly represent the will of the people. I guess we want high energy costs.

That said, it seems that the winters are milder than when I was a kid.
The problem is we expect quick results today, like looking for info on the internet. Climate change has happened over millions of years but people expect to see the results of slowing that down right away, it just doesn't happen that way.
Like I said, I don't know the answer, but I do know the results of doing is nothing.
On the plus side, a longer boating season would be nice!
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Old 12-08-2023, 06:08 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Major View Post
I guess this is where we disagree. We have 150 years of data. How do you or anyone else know we are speeding it up. Yes, I've heard scientist say this and that, but the statistician in me knows that it is irresponsible to draw conclusions from such an incredibly small sample. I also heard what experts said about the virus and we all know how that turned out.

We know climate change exists because of what JayR noted. You are correct, we tax things we don't want and we subsidize things we do want. How has that worked so far? Car dealerships have lots of EVs that nobody wants. The wind and solar industries are a scam, spending billions (maybe trillions) of dollars with no meaningful impact on our energy supply. But, we vote in politicians who supposedly represent the will of the people. I guess we want high energy costs.

That said, it seems that the winters are milder than when I was a kid.
I am pretty sure that my commonsense tells me that if I burn something, I add heat to the atmosphere that would not be there had I not burnt something.

Pretty sure that my blacktop driveway is warmer than my clover field, and that field is warmer than my forested parcel.

Solar is about personal freedom from the corporate utilities... you may want to complain to the Free State Project.

I am sure the car companies can take care of themselves... and someone paying less income tax... well, I don't see that as a bad thing... even if I don't personally use that deduction.
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Old 12-08-2023, 06:11 PM   #13
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I love the analogy. The earth has a surface area of 197 million square miles, with land taking up 57 million square miles. It is hard to determine whether doubling, tripling, quadrupling, etc. would effect temperature. When we were kids, the experts were predicting global cooling. For all we know a solar flare or sun spot has made it warmer.

I am for conservation. However, we must balance that with the fact that cheap energy has brought more people out of poverty than almost anything else.

I hope you are well, John! Merry Christmas to you and your family!
I guess you didn't pay as close attention in school as you thought you did.
Sulfur dioxide is an atmospheric coolant.
Scientists were looking for the reason for the cooling luckily it turned out not to be natural.
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Old 12-08-2023, 06:24 PM   #14
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Seabrook's reactor is approx 1200 MW/h so it can support close to a million homes. Transmission lines would be needed if they had built Seabrook Unit 2 as originally planned.

Nuclear is a solid, carbon free power source so we need to have it as part of our US energy strategy at least for the short-term. It is very difficult to bring new units online in the US. Vogtle brought their first Westinghouse AP1000 on line in GA a year or so ago. It can be done but it is pricy!

https://www.georgiapower.com/company/plant-vogtle.html
We can't expect that the residents of Seabrook and the surrounding area, fairly densely populated, would put up with the new build out since we allowed the residents of sparsely populated Coos and Grafton county to not have to deal with the transmission lines.

So it really isn't about the price... it is about the NIMBY politics.

Since we have to deal with the current infrastructure and only small changes (don't even try to trim a tree near the lines)... the strategy is to use the current infrastructure more efficiently.
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Old 12-09-2023, 08:35 AM   #15
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We can't expect that the residents of Seabrook and the surrounding area, fairly densely populated, would put up with the new build out since we allowed the residents of sparsely populated Coos and Grafton county to not have to deal with the transmission lines.

So it really isn't about the price... it is about the NIMBY politics.

Since we have to deal with the current infrastructure and only small changes (don't even try to trim a tree near the lines)... the strategy is to use the current infrastructure more efficiently.
I agree with the NIMBY politics. What happened to Seabrook 2? That would surely shut down the Bow plant but no! NIMBY! There was a plan to convert Bow from coal to NG, but no! No transmission pipes! NIMBY! Plus, the hydroelectric energy from Canada to replace the fossil burners! No! NIMBY!

If we want to put a dent in pollution, we should concentrate on the Big Three polluters who have no intent on clean energy, India, Nigeria, and the ocean commercial cargo barges which burn the dirtiest oil.
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Old 12-09-2023, 01:50 PM   #16
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There were cost overruns building the first reactor, so the second... I believe... is available to be finished off and activated should the first be shuttered.

The transmission infrastructure can handle the output generated one at a time.

But since we are no longer building transmission, the second would not even be considered until the first was in the process of being decommissioned, and then the owner of record at that time would consider the financials of outfitting number two and placing it into operation.

Number One had to be subsidized because the cost of NG generation was so low and the thermal efficiency was so high.

We also have some smaller generation sites left over due to the decision not to expand the subsidies to biomass generation. Biomass, unfortunately, directly competes with the concept of wood and pellet stove fuel; the government chose to subsidize those instead of burning the biomass for electricity. The State subsidizing one format (electric generation) and the federal government subsidizing the other (Inflation Reduction Act) was an incoherent strategy.

But we are not going to stop India, or even ourselves... it is really more a matter of adapting to the change.
The change being exponential rather than arithmetic is a challenge, but it is a challenge we don't get a choice to avoid.
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Old 12-09-2023, 04:08 PM   #17
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I wouldn't want to own a ski resort...at least on margin!
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Old 12-09-2023, 10:37 PM   #18
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Almost all of them can make snow...

The data isn't that it doesn't fall below freezing ever.
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Old 12-10-2023, 11:41 AM   #19
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Very well said. I have attempted to make that point various times within this Forum. I would be wholeheartedly supportive of a conservational approach to the environment, rather than the Green New Deal approach. Keep the money and politics out of it. Bring back the crying Indian!
Remember that the crying Indian was really an Italian actor. lol


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Old 12-10-2023, 02:02 PM   #20
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Regardless, if that campaign had worked, we would not be discussing it today.
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Old 12-10-2023, 02:35 PM   #21
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Regardless, if that campaign had worked, we would not be discussing it today.
Actually the crying Indian ad was quite successful on what it was targeting which was litter and pollution of the land. It was probably the most successful ad campaign in this regard ever.

In fact… “ Litter was reported to have reduced by 88% in 38 different states after the ad. This could possibly be one of the most effective public service ad campaigns in the history of advertising.”

Fraud or not, I would say the crying Indian ad campaign worked quite well!

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Old 12-10-2023, 05:44 PM   #22
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But did it last?

Adopt-a-highway still picks up thousands of bags of trash just in NH; and there never seems to be an end to it. I live on a seldom traveled rural road, and I spend time picking up trash on my property.


Removing human factors from a warming winter... that seems like an overwhelming task.
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Old 12-10-2023, 07:56 PM   #23
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But did it last?
I would say that yes it absolutely did last. The impression that ad made back in the 70’s on the general population put pressure and was highly influential on the Federal Government to start the “Superfund” cleanup site campaign with the EPA. Currently there are over 1300 superfund sites nationwide and 20 alone in NH.

The “crying Indian” definitely influenced and played a big part in the superfund creation that to this day continues….

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Old 12-10-2023, 10:20 PM   #24
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It isn't that humans are doing all of it... just we are speeding it up. The politics are simply we tax the things we don't want, and subsidize the things we do want.

The mini-splits and electric vehicles allow us to use grid capacity that we have to pay for but goes unused. The support for high efficiency wood and pellet stoves allow us to short-cycle the carbon. Our push for better windows and building envelopes allow us to actually conserve energy. I once saw someone suggest that NH use more nuclear. Only one problem. Most of NH's electric generation is nuclear... a second reactor at Seabrook would require a transmission upgrade - something unlikely to happen after the reaction to the Northern Pass... and the only other location with the existing transmission infrastructure is the only coal plant currently in NH. Arguing to shut the coal plant permanently would create a political storm not worth the effort.
Not unlike other energy sources, nuclear energy produces heat. That's why nuclear must have cooling systems. (Towers or canals).

In the "sawtooth" graphs recording Earth's temperatures, wide swings are noted. It appears Earth is headed towards future Ice Ages, but presently, we're in a warming stage. (Just as several "blips" of warming has been recorded since 1300 AD ).

Of course, worldwide volcanic activity can disrupt predictions either way, but this graph demonstrates when there are a greater number of eruptions, it forces future temperatures downwards.

https://iceageearth.blogspot.com/201...by-damion.html

BTW:

Actor Michael Ansara, who played Cochise, was Lebanese!

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Old 12-11-2023, 10:04 AM   #25
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With regards to pollution control, until India & China hop on the 'stop pollution' bandwagon, any mitigation on our (USA) part is just a fart in the wind.
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Old 12-11-2023, 11:43 AM   #26
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Not unlike other energy sources, nuclear energy produces heat. That's why nuclear must have cooling systems. (Towers or canals).

In the "sawtooth" graphs recording Earth's temperatures, wide swings are noted. It appears Earth is headed towards future Ice Ages, but presently, we're in a warming stage. (Just as several "blips" of warming has been recorded since 1300 AD ).

Of course, worldwide volcanic activity can disrupt predictions either way, but this graph demonstrates when there are a greater number of eruptions, it forces future temperatures downwards.

https://iceageearth.blogspot.com/201...by-damion.html

BTW:

Actor Michael Ansara, who played Cochise, was Lebanese!

What instruments were the native in North America using in the 1300 to measure the temperature, how often did they measure them, and were did they record them?

Emerson is talking about a physical observation that has occurred over the last 50 years.
My input, as quoted, was that what appear to be ''green'' policies are really more about other factors. The promotion of small scale generation is due to the limitations on the existing infrastructure. We aren't going to get new/upgraded transmission of either electricity or natural gas... so we have to make do.
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Old 12-11-2023, 11:55 AM   #27
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With regards to pollution control, until India & China hop on the 'stop pollution' bandwagon, any mitigation on our (USA) part is just a fart in the wind.
True. But as I state above. I don't think the policies are really about reducing anything.

Politics in NH from the Forest Society and Timberland Owners gave us subsidized biomass. They are also strongly involved in blocking new/upgraded transmission lines - block out the competition.

So a new tax rebate credit for burning wood makes them happy... and for most of NH doesn't really make anyone sad. We close one door, but open another. I know they would rather have both... but that doesn't seem to be beneficial to the majority of residents.

The loss of lake ice, or snow cover, may be an issue for some areas... with some user groups... but they will need to adapt.

Maybe some street hockey rather than pond hockey, bob houses on pontoon boats, dog sleds using the summer training wheeled rigs, and fat bikes instead of snowmobiles?

But thinking that everyone is going to sport an EV - with the ice storm blackouts we've had - I think that may be a dream too far in a short period of just years.

Now to be honest... I don't know that I wouldn't buy a plug-in hybrid if the cost with the tax credit worked out. Just don't know what might happen if for so many short trips the gasoline went bad in the tank.

Of course an eight speed or high-efficiency CVT wouldn't be out of the question either.
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Old 12-11-2023, 12:35 PM   #28
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Default Milankovitch cycle...

The Earth wobbles about 4 degrees every 26,000 years or so. Parts of the Sahara desert were once under the ocean as were parts of Wyoming and Montana. Although we should all want a clean planet, not much we can do about that wobble.
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Old 12-11-2023, 01:03 PM   #29
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The Earth wobbles about 4 degrees every 26,000 years or so. Parts of the Sahara desert were once under the ocean as were parts of Wyoming and Montana. Although we should all want a clean planet, not much we can do about that wobble.
I thought I felt a little dizzy.
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Old 12-11-2023, 06:50 PM   #30
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Orbital forcing.
I believe that is the basis for the math used in the climate models to see natural variation and predict prehistoric conditions.

Not sure they can help me win this year's Ice Out contest.
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Old 12-23-2023, 01:54 PM   #31
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I try to keep an open mind, and it is sad how many folks do not. But one thing I remind people of when discussing this stuff, is that a little over 10,000 years ago, what we see now at the lake was nothing more than a huge rocky glacier as far as one could see, with ice a mile thick. Thousands/millions of years before that, it was warm. And before that, more glaciers! And so on.

So, we should absolutely, positively treat our environment better and reduce carbon emissions and make all the recommended changes to our behaviors. BUT...it is likely that we have only just scratched the surface of knowing what really goes on with our planet, and major climate changes are sure to occur again, irrespective of what we do or what we burn or what we don't do or burn.

Try to keep an open mind!
This article states exactly what you said. Apparently when the Flintstones switched to electric vehicles, it did nothing to stop the glaciers from melting. And if the glaciers hadnít melted, this lake would probably not exist.

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/boat...3a8814057.html
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Old 12-23-2023, 05:05 PM   #32
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Orbital forcing is very well understood and has been for decades.
The thing that some do not like about it is that if the warming is all natural... nothing can be done. We will see warmer winters and no snow.
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Old 01-10-2024, 03:34 PM   #33
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Orbital forcing is very well understood and has been for decades.
The thing that some do not like about it is that if the warming is all natural... nothing can be done. We will see warmer winters and no snow.
This has been a pretty snowless year so far, It seems Moultonborough is a snowless void in general, I have an inch or two on the ground now. Driving around there is quite a bit snow everywhere else, south/southwest, east, and north.
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Old 01-10-2024, 06:18 PM   #34
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If it were simply orbital forcing... it would get worse and worse.
Orbital forcing goes until we have a interglacial period (all glaciers are melted including Antarctica)... then tips over the top and goes back toward a glacial period.

Interglacial periods can still have snow... but no where on the Earth does the snow cover exist all year long.

I don't know the math to determine when an interglacial period would start, or when it would peak before heading back to a glacial period... but each year should push us toward a warmer and warmer global mean temperature, with tempering affecting local averages.

But adaptation is what we should expect. Ski resorts will make snow overnight when temperatures allow such. Pond Hockey might become street hockey. The Dog Sled Championships may have to use their wheeled training rigs. Snowshoes... well mine are hanging on the wall as decor... but someone with poles might use them for hiking... and my rubber snow boots work well to keep the puddles from getting my socks wet.
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