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Old 07-09-2020, 07:56 PM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default ***Tropical Storm Fay***

This afternoon the National Hurricane Center upgraded the weather system off the U.S. east coast to tropical storm status, which gives it a name: Fay.

Fay is expected to hit near New Hampshire tomorrow night (Friday) into Saturday morning. The sun comes back out on Sunday.

The current forecast track makes Fay more of a wind event than a rain event for the lakes region, but the wind would be coming from the south (or southeast, due to the shape of the lake.) In October 2017 a tropical system produced wind from that direction here, and many waterfront properties sustained damage from the relentless large waves. My station's wind sensors came down in that storm (but are still intact, and if someone has a bucket truck to help me reach the top of the 30-foot mast I can probably get them back online in an hour). Flying brush from a tree took them out.

Also, this track has potential to wash out Vermont and neighboring towns in New Hampshire "Irene style." That is NOT a certainty, but should be considered for planning purposes and monitored as it develops.

Here, the shape of the land and lake often create local enhancement and local nullification of storm effects, so please keep that in mind.

Also keep in mind that NHC's "cone of uncertainty" is for the *eye* of a storm, not the entire width. Any given storm's width can extend well beyond the NHC's cone of uncertainty. The western side typically has the heaviest rain, while the eastern side has more wind.

Anyone with a boat on the open lake should consider plans for moving it to a protected cove (not exposed to the south) or to the north side of an island AND monitor the NHC's forecasts for changes as Fay approaches.
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Old 07-10-2020, 06:50 AM   #2
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Appreciate the wind warning very much....hadn't thought of that and all the restaurants with umbrellas outside can be on their toes
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Old 07-10-2020, 07:18 AM   #3
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Default Canopies etc

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Appreciate the wind warning very much....hadn't thought of that and all the restaurants with umbrellas outside can be on their toes
Also canopies, & furniture.

Dave
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:14 AM   #4
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Also canopies, & furniture.

Dave
Hair pieces, too?
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Old 07-10-2020, 10:13 AM   #5
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Has this forecast changed? Has the track of the tropical storm shifted?? Reason I ask is all the weather stations I have looked at do not call for any high winds for today, tonight or any part of tomorrow and Sunday is looking good also...??

Dan
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Old 07-10-2020, 10:39 AM   #6
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Default Sauna

The water temperature this morning ahead of tropical storm Fay's visit later today is a toasty 80 degrees. Time for a dip! ��

Last edited by Barney Bear; 07-10-2020 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 07-10-2020, 11:10 AM   #7
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Default

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Has this forecast changed? Has the track of the tropical storm shifted?? Reason I ask is all the weather stations I have looked at do not call for any high winds for today, tonight or any part of tomorrow and Sunday is looking good also...??

Dan
The few local forecasts I have seen havenít mentioned a significant wind event either...guess we wait and see...
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:20 PM   #8
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I am certain there is a more expert answer; but, even in Florida, the daily ONLINE weather forecasts/apps seem to almost ignore pending tropical weather until it is very close. I don’t know the disconnect but it is peculiar.
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:35 PM   #9
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I am certain there is a more expert answer; but, even in Florida, the daily ONLINE weather forecasts/apps seem to almost ignore pending tropical weather until it is very close. I donít know the disconnect but it is peculiar.
Yes, I have noticed that also...

Dan
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:57 PM   #10
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Default She's On Her Way

Noon forecast on WMUR says that Fay is headed up on the west side of NH, heavy(?) rain from midnight to about 6:00 AM. Showers later today, and also tomorrow afternoon. No mention of wind in this report. Took a dip in the nice warm water just as the breeze picked up. 🐻
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:37 PM   #11
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Default From Grey ME NWS Forecaster Discussion

Here is the Grey ME NWS forecaster discussion from the NOAA site.

Looks like track it's more up the Hudson Valley, Albany (KALB) to Montreal.

Dave



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Models continue to push waht`s left of Fay further west, with
the center moving up the Hudson vly of NY. This will keep the
heaviest rain to our west. Still will see several bands of
SHRA/TSRA move thru overnight, especially across NH, and there
is potential for some torrential downpours. These will become
more prevalent across wrn and central ME closer to daybreak. It
will be generally mild and muggy night with lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Saturday will see the center of Fay moving from around KALB to
Montreal. Should see bands of precip associated with it lift N
thru the morning. However, 500 MB trough to the west will pulled
east as Fay is consumed by it, and will see 500 MB height falls
and lowering temps. Depending on how much clearing can occur to
help enhance destabilization further, could see some strong to
svr storms Sat afternoon, especially over central and srn NH.
Highs on Sat range from the low to mid 80s in NH and interior SW
Me to low-mid 70s on the mid coast.
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:52 PM   #12
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Default Trump visit to Portsmouth on Saturday....

Has been postponed due to impending weather
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Old 07-10-2020, 05:34 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Hillcountry View Post
The few local forecasts I have seen havenít mentioned a significant wind event either...guess we wait and see...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=43.575;-...;10&l=wind-10m
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Old 07-10-2020, 06:00 PM   #14
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Default Windy

At 5:30 Friday, wind has picked up and we have waves over two feet coming from the southeast. We have added extra lines to hold our boat off the dock. WMUR now mentions strong winds as Fay waltzes by. 🐻
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:42 AM   #15
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did this completely miss us overnight, Was outside till about 1:30am did not have much of wind and some off and on rain. Di we get lucky?
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:56 AM   #16
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Default .4 in in Alton

On a different social media, someone in Alton stated they measured. 4 in of precip.

Didn't hear any heavy downpours overnight. Cloudy, humid, and a little misty with an occasional shower today.

Dave
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Old 07-11-2020, 11:11 AM   #17
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On a different social media, someone in Alton stated they measured. 4 in of precip.

Didn't hear any heavy downpours overnight. Cloudy, humid, and a little misty with an occasional shower today.

Dave
According to my weather station, we got just slightly over 1/2” of rain last night here on Welch Island...Not much wind.

Dan
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Old 07-11-2020, 12:07 PM   #18
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Default Blew Buoy

Strong sustained wind all night here on East Bear Island. Let up at 11:00 AM. Sun starting to peek between the clouds. 🐻
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Old 07-11-2020, 12:41 PM   #19
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guess the couple of cocktails I had last night did the trick
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Old 07-11-2020, 02:11 PM   #20
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Just had a quick micro burst here on Welch...winds hit 38 mph at my dock!

Dan
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