2/26/08-2/27/08 & 2/29 (leap Day)

[eyenotall777]

Okay, where are you all?? Rose, R2B (cruise), CLA? Come on, tell us what you got, this season is unbelievable. It has been great for winter sports.

[Rose]

I myself am suffering from FFS...forecasters fatigue syndrome.

Actually, I've been so busy working on weather satellites that won't fly for another 6+ years that I haven't had a chance to forecast much.

[CanisLupusArctos]

A winter storm watch is in effect for the entire state except the area from Portsmouth to Manchester. A winter storm watch means that a snowstorm of at least 6 inches in 12 hours is likely to begin within 24 hours but the details are not certain enough to warrant a warning.

This latest storm is gathering strength over eastern Kansas/Nebraska and will move ENE, tracking over Massachusetts or southern New Hampshire tomorrow night. To the south of the track, as always, there will be rain, and snow will fall to the north of the track, with varying degrees of mixed precip happening near the track.

At this point it looks like the mountains are in for a definite 12"+. The lakes region is a bit closer to the storm track and may have some mixing but should still see 8 to 10 inches. IF the storm track ends up being a few miles farther south than current predictions, it would put the lakes region in the 12"+ range and southern parts of the state would get more snow too. A storm track shift a few miles to the north of present thinking would result in the rain/snow line moving farther north as well.

In either case, temps are on the warm side, so we're looking for the heavy wet kind of snow.

Whatever falls in the form of liquid will be freezing over on Thursday as bitter cold comes in with highs in the teens.

As always, weather details, forecasts, and snowfall measurements are continuously updated on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter page.

At Black Cat, we've received 35.1 inches of snow for the month. We need 7.0 inches to tie December's incredible total, and 7.4 inches to reach the 100-inch mark for this season. The snowpack still stands at 28 inches.

[Resident 2B]

Just back this morning from our cruise. What a great place to go to in the winter.

Looking at the Tuesday and Wednesday situation here at the lake, CLA has completely nailed it, so no need for me to comment as I would only say the same things that CLA has already said. It is all about the track with these kind of systems.

I am remembering back to Feb 2 and the groundhog's prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. Looks to me like the groundhog nailed it as well.

I have had enough winter for this year. Bring on the warm weather!

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Just checked the radar and from what I am seeing, the storm is tracking a bit south of the NWS forecast. If this holds, look for a bit more snow in the lakes region with little or no mixing. A more southern track will move the rain/snow line into Mass. and make the lakes region snow more like 10:1 or 12:1 snow. There is a good amount of moisture with the storm so if it is all snow, we should go over 100" with this event.

Time will tell, but that is what it looks like right now.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

That wouldn't surprise me... currently we have mostly clear skies over the lake with calm winds, and this is allowing the air to chill off rapidly from today's taste of spring. Currently we're 20 degrees and dropping at an average of 1.6 deg. per hour. Dewpoint dropping slowly from 14, baro perfectly steady. Satellite loop shows clouds right on New England's doorstep so I don't think this radiational cooling will last more than another couple of hours.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Snow began across the lake around 11 a.m. and remains light. A winter storm warning is in effect from 2 p.m. through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

So far it's melting on the pavement because of yesterday's warmth, which means this layer of liquid will be freezing as the snow becomes heavier. This will make the roads very slippery as soon as the snow begins to accumulate on them. Also, the relatively warm temps with this storm mean there will be a lot of water content in the snow, adding to the slip-slide factor.

For kids it means snowball fights and snowmen, and for skiers it means a good dumping of snow that's not going to blow away or evaporate after it falls.

On that note, the mountains will probably get more than a foot from this storm - perhaps 18 inches.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Just checked the radar and from what I am seeing, the storm is tracking a bit south of the NWS forecast. If this holds, look for a bit more snow in the lakes region with little or no mixing. A more southern track will move the rain/snow line into Mass. and make the lakes region snow more like 10:1 or 12:1 snow. There is a good amount of moisture with the storm so if it is all snow, we should go over 100" with this event.

Time will tell, but that is what it looks like right now.

R2B

The storm has so far produced 5.2 inches of snow and very heavy snow is now falling. This is sticking to the trees making everything looks like a Christmas card out there, or marshmallow land. And I am also hearing an occasional crack from the pine branches. The lights have flickered a few times this evening.

Season snow: 97.8 inches
February snow: 40.3 inches
...at 930 pm.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

The storm has so far produced 5.2 inches of snow and very heavy snow is now falling. This is sticking to the trees making everything looks like a Christmas card out there, or marshmallow land. And I am also hearing an occasional crack from the pine branches. The lights have flickered a few times this evening.

Season snow: 97.8 inches
February snow: 40.3 inches
...at 930 pm.

I hit the track, but we are warmer than I thought with wetter snow than I thought we would get. Looks like, and sounds like, 8:1 snow to me. I was expecting 10:1 or 12:1 snow. QPF looks to be 1" to 1.5" so with the 8:1 ratio we should get the 8" - 10" and that will break the 100"mark at BCI.

Time to get this stuff melted. I would guess the dam will be opening even more the next few weeks. We do not need another high tide this spring, but we have a lot of snow to melt and guess where it goes?

R2B

[Lakegeezer]

I see they opened the dam gates to 1900 CFM. The lake is a bit high but not yet at record levels. It sure is early to start worrying about it, but Resident 2B has a point. There is a lot of water waiting to run.

[CanisLupusArctos]

R2B, I hadn't noticed the ratios part... I was looking more at the rain/snow line which you said would be tracking farther south than forecast. In the end this is what I watched on radar all day, as all of MA except the South Shore and Cape were snowing this afternoon.

At Black Cat this storm is now up to 9.3 inches which is fast closing on the biggest of the winter (the first storm of the season, Dec. 3, still owns that title.)

Snowfall for February 2008 has just reached 44.1 inches, which beats December's incredible total of 42.1 inches.

The season snowfall is now up to 101.9 inches. We reached the 100-inch mark around 11 p.m.

The snowpack is now up to 36 inches, the highest it's been all winter, and the stake (a yard stick) is now buried.

Damage is occurring with this storm. The area's fire departments have been responding to trees on wires burning, etc. The lights have been flickering all evening. The wires and trees are *caked* with snow. Not a good time to be under them.

...flood issues...

With this much snow on the ground, with as much water as it holds (thanks also to the number of times it's been rained on) any fast melting of this snowpack could be disastrous. We've had 6.11 inches of precipitation (liquid and melted) this month, and 7.57" for the year so far. A good portion of December's 3.47 inches of precip still remains on the ground as a layer of ice at the very bottom of the snowpack.

That's just here, right around the lake. The mountains have been getting pounded with snow all winter, and that's going to be heading this way... and every other way... when it starts melting. I think the dam's opening shows planning for more than just this lake. If spring were to come quickly, we'd have so much water flowing from the mountains to the ocean that a lake-wide 'no-wake' order would be the least of anyone's problems. We'd probably see no-wake signs humorously strapped to stop signs and Main St. signs.... again. Before the state's water system will even be able to handle an influx of snowmelt, the ice on all the rivers must clear first (preferably slowly) or else it would create jams. And it's still February.

Any rain we get will likely be absorbed by the giant white sponge on the ground, and will wait for a later, warmer date to come out and flow.

...good news in the allergy and wildfire end of things...

The past few years we've had a lot of springtime brush fires due to lack of a snowpack. This year we have quite a snowpack. There are also many types of allergen-producing plants that go into overdrive when the winter season doesn't humble them enough. My guess is that this winter has humbled them into submission, which means a better spring & summer for people allergic to those plants.

[Blue Thunder]

CLA,
You really are a scientist aren't you??? You think of everything and explain it so all of us can grasp the magnitude and/or potential.

Blue Thunder

[Mink Islander]

I'm bringing up a group of Scouts this weekend to my place on Mink and wanted to know how deep the snow will be. Thanks!

[hilltopper]

I measured 11.5" in the driveway in Meredith this morning with, according to the weatherman, 1" to 3" more coming today. This would make it the biggest storm of the season so far, surpassing the 11" storm on 12/3/07.

I grew up in St. Johnsbury, VT and I never remember walking out our front door to the snowpack we now have in Meredith. In the hills outside of STJ sure, but never on the front lawn.

I enjoy skiing and snowmobiling, but if I had to tally up this winter it would probably look something like this:

Hours skiing = 0
Hours snowmobiling = 45
Hours moving snow around at the house = 80

[Mink Islander]

I love it. Now some of my younger scouts will both get their first experience ice fishing AND at snowshoeing. Should be a great time.

[chipj29]

I got an even 8" at my house in Bow, which brings me to 96.5" for the season. Not bad at all.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Thank you Blue Thunder. Most of what I've learned has come from just watching nature in action, but there are other scientific minds on this forum and I've learned a great deal from them.

This storm has left Black Cat with a total of 9.3 inches, making it the #3 storm for the season so far. First and second place are Dec. 3 (10.8") and Dec. 19-20 (10.4").

We got an inch or two less than the mainland due to the effect of the lake weather. For the first few hours of accumulating snow we had steady wind off the water, blowing everything sideways, and the snow had a hard time finding the ground. Believe it or not we actually had some drifts despite the stickyness of the snow. When the wind settled down, the snow accumulated evenly. All the trees were white-blasted on their east-facing sides, which looked really magical this morning. It's all falling off now, thanks to the strong sun which is just three weeks away from equinox.

There is a chance of a few more inches of snow on Friday night into Saturday. At the moment it's looking like a coastal redevelopment that will be too far offshore to give us a lot, but that's a line we've heard prior to some good snowstorms this winter, and therefore all meteorological eyes are watching it with one finger hovering over the 'summon snowplows' button.

...Something to look forward to...

New England has some of the best spring skiing in the country, thanks to several regional weather factors. In recent years we haven't been able to enjoy it that much because we've had wimpy winters. As long as spring comes in a normal, gradual fashion, I'd say we're set up for a banner year of spring skiing. If you haven't had the pleasure, here's what it's all about: Hitting moguls and taking turns at Wildcat while wearing a T-shirt and covered in sunblock... Sunning yourself on 'Lunch Rocks' in Tuckerman Ravine, watching the crazies jump the waterfall... taking a leisurely run down the John Sherburne Trail on your tele's... changing into shorts for the Apres-ski cookout....

-Real Estate Sale-
GORGEOUS SNOW FORT, 4 BR, 2.5 bath, spacious walk-in freezer with kitchen, slushpuppy cellar, living room, great room, den, 2-snowmobile garage. Make offer by spring! Call Johnny (evenings and when school's cancelled) 555-2345.

[Weirs guy]

11-1/4" at the Weirs this morning.

[rander7823]

With all this snow and we haven't heard from Yuki in quite a while some of us are starting to worry

[CanisLupusArctos]

SteveA, is Yuki making you deal with his cattorneys now that the snow is this deep? My guess is that you're in Florida, where I've heard it's legal to buy a mountain lion for a pet, and that you'll be using this new 'kitty' to measure the snow we now have.

The snow has re-formed across the lakes region this afternoon and evening, resulting in very slick travel, even where the road appears to be bare. There was even a rollover this afternoon on Rt. 25 in Moultonborough, and the vehicle landed on its roof. The four occupants were not injured.

Thanks to this latest round of 'backlash' snow from the storm, we now have 10.6 for the storm. This ranks the storm as the second-biggest of the winter behind the 10.8" on December 3. Other numbers:

February 2008 snow: 45.4 inches
Season snow 2007-08: 103.2 inches
Snow depth: 37 inches

In a winter this snowy, I find it incredible that we haven't had any 12"+ storms at Black Cat, which is what made most of last winter's snow.

[Resident 2B]

Wow!

It is starting to look like the clipper that will pass to our north on Friday night will spawn a coastal secondary near or south of Cape Cod late Friday. This is closer in than most current predictions, so it looks to me like a more snowy event than the NWS is currently predicting for southern NH up into the lakes region. With very cold air in place, the fluff factor should yield 15:1 snow and with a QPF of about 0.3" or more (my opinion), we could see another 4+ inches Friday night into early Saturday.

What a snowy winter!

It should turn warmer at the beginning of next week, so let's hope for warm days and cool nights through March to safely get all this water into the lake and over the dam in an orderly fashion.

R2B

[SteveA]

We are buried, no amount of catnip will get Yuki out of the house.

Yep... that's snow piled up outside the kitchen windows!


Check this out.. what a difference a year makes

3-3-07




same shot this morning, only the top of the bean supports are visable.



We have somewhere between 6 and 7 Yukis out there, and the drifts and piles of snow raked off the roof are more than halfway up the windows.

It's like living in an igloo !

[Grant]

When was the last winter with this much snow? I remember one in the last five or six years, but can't remember which. Another possible 8 inches on the way tomorrow would bring the ground cover up close to four feet -- as of March 1st. The frozen lake has a nice insulating blanket -- could this mean a later ice-out? Wish I'd pushed my guess into the first week of May!

[SteveA]

Daylight Savings Time is only 10 days away... Boy that extra hour of sun will help melt all this snow!

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Grant

When was the last winter with this much snow? I remember one in the last five or six years, but can't remember which. Another possible 8 inches on the way tomorrow would bring the ground cover up close to four feet -- as of March 1st. The frozen lake has a nice insulating blanket -- could this mean a later ice-out? Wish I'd pushed my guess into the first week of May!

Winter of 02-03 I believe. While we didn't have this much snow, what we did get stuck around till right after the Presidents Day storm. We had a solid 5' snow depth in my yard, but it warmed up right after that big storm, and it melted quick.

[CanisLupusArctos]

At Concord, this is now the snowiest meteorological winter on record. Meteorological winter means the months of Dec-Jan-Feb. as opposed to astronomical winter which begins with the solstice and ends with the equinox (Dec 20 to March 20).

The meteorological winter in Concord is now up to 100.1 inches of snow, breaking the old record of 78.0 inches in 1886-87. The normal snowfall for this time period is 45.6 inches. This winter is the only time Concord has ever received more than 100 inches of snow during meteorological winter.

This is now the 8th snowiest season on record. The snow season begins July 1 and ends June 30, in order to allow as much time as possible on either side of the winter season. For the snow season, Concord now has 102.2 inches. This reflects the light snowfall we had in November, which is considered meteorological autumn.

Here are the rankings of snow seasons at Concord, from the National Weather Service:

1. 122.0 INCHES 1873/74

2. 115.0 INCHES 1872/73

3. 112.4 INCHES 1995/96

4. 111.0 INCHES 1886/87

5. 111.0 INCHES 1887/88

6. 103.2 INCHES 1898/99

7. 103.0 INCHES 1874/75

8. 102.2 INCHES 2007/08 <==

9. 100.0 INCHES 1875/76

10. 100.0 INCHES 1971/72

...On a historical note... The records go back to 1869 in Concord. Some historians argue that we had much greater snows prior to the Industrial Revolution (mid-1800s). Historical records (not scientific) show that the world (including New England) had a 'Year Without A Summer' in the late 1820s thanks to a massive volcanic eruption in the Pacific Ocean. Farmer journals and other historical writings indicate New England had snow in every month during that time.

The Weather Channel's Bill Keneely (a Plymouth State alum) just posted a comparison of NH's snowpack to Steamboat Springs CO and Truckee, CA... two notoriously snowy places.

Currently in Concord the snow depth is 42 inches (it's 37 on Black Cat). Steamboat, CO has 39 inches, and Truckee CA has 33 inches.


***And there is more on the way***

R2B, it looks like you've called it once again. The NWS is now on board with your thinking for Friday night, which you posted last night. They're waiting for one more run of the models (to check for consistency) before they issue a winter storm watch for the possibility of 6"+ on Friday night. Assuming the next model run is consistent with the last, you should see NH highlighted in a winter storm watch beginning later today.

***Potential Problems Next Week***

With all this snow on the ground, warm air and rain have actually become our default enemies now. Seems strange to say, especially for the winter-weary, but R2B was right when he said that what we need in order to safely dwindle the snowpack are warm days and cold nights to gradually melt the snow. This would hopefully take place over a period of several weeks, not days. To that, I would add that an extremely dry period (like September & October were) is also needed. It doesn't look like we're going to get that.

Sunday through Wednesday is looking like a very stormy period, and warm air is going to try to invade. Rain on the existing snowpack means roofs and structures with snow on them will begin to collapse more readily as the snow gets weighed down with the rain in it.

Rain also filters to the bottom of the snowpack (which is December's snow, now ice) where it re-freezes and thickens that layer of ice. This makes the landscape much less capable of absorbing future moisture (like spring rainstorms) and the snowpack more resistant to melting.

Finally, the state's rivers and lakes need to be ready to accept the runoff from melting snow, before we can safely receive spring weather. At the moment, they're all frozen solid. They, too, need to thaw gradually. When rivers thaw too quickly it results in ice jams that dam up the river and cause overflowing. Last April we saw what happens when the lake thaws too quickly, as we had aircraft carriers made of ice drifting around the lake, bashing into everything on the shore.

Bottom line: As funny as it sounds, if there must be a storm, pray that it's snow...

[Grant]

CLA:

Gracias. As usual, a very insightful and informative post.

Assuming that tomorrow's predicted snowfall is not the last of the season, this could easily end up being this fifth- or fourth-snowiest season since records have been kept. (Perhaps higher -- March and April can be long months with many surprises...).

[Weirs guy]

Originally Posted by SteveA

Yep... that's snow piled up outside the kitchen windows!
same shot this morning, only the top of the bean supports are visable.
It's like living in an igloo !

Hey Steve, lets all help each other out!

Lost:
1 driveway at the Weirs, last seen out my kitchen window 2 weeks ago covered with snow and sand.
1 15' self contained camper, last seen in my back yard 3 weeks ago. Oh yeah, its white like the snow banks!
1 swing set, near above listed camper, last seen 2 weeks ago. May be in cahoots with camper....

Unfortunately my cats keep coming back.

Is it bikeweek yet?

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Weirs guy

Hey Steve, lets all help each other out!

Lost:
1 driveway at the Weirs, last seen out my kitchen window 2 weeks ago covered with snow and sand.
1 15' self contained camper, last seen in my back yard 3 weeks ago. Oh yeah, its white like the snow banks!
1 swing set, near above listed camper, last seen 2 weeks ago. May be in cahoots with camper....

Unfortunately my cats keep coming back.

Is it bikeweek yet?

Lost:
1) very expensive "ice chipper" left laying down outside sometime in December..
2) very nice little "bench" (ya know the ones that you get at Lowes w/ Some Assembly Required.. ) last seen outside the kitchen window in early November
3) Step Ladder... left on the side of the garage.. October 2007..
4) Mail Box.. the USPS can't even send me nasty messages about my mailbox being buried in the snow, because neither of us can find the mailbox! ( I'm lucky.. the nice lady brings my mail into the garage every few days)
5) Nifty little "plug in" remote control on/off switch for my Christmas light (which have been up since 2001 ) I think it's on the missing bench.

Stay Warm! Stay Dry! Summer is coming.. in September at this rate!

[SteveA]

This is the best time of year to locate the Septic Tank cover.

Looks like a crater in the backyard.

[CanisLupusArctos]

LOST:

Weather station snow stake; wooden yard stick bearing logo of EM Heath hardware. Last seen standing upright in snow. This sophisticated instrument's last official reading was 35 inches. Has not been seen since middle part of most recent snowstorm.

[fatlazyless]

My ten-dollar(1987 price), mercury thermometer is saying -18 here in Waterville Valley, about 30 miles north of the lake, and about 1000' higher in altitude at 1550'. That's pretty cold, huh!

The last storm looks like Meredith got more snow than WV. Meredith got a lot of thick heavy snow a couple days ago. Was wading through that deep stuff yesterday.....very deep and heavy and lots of it. Big warmup coming next week?????? Will it bring rain?

Today's www.unionleader.com has a photo of the snowed under Irwin boat shed, plus other articles about caved-in roofs.

Is this an olde fashioned winter or what?

Question de jour: How much warmer is 32 than -18?

[Just Sold]

I just looked at the Pine Island South Cam and there sure is a lot of pretty frost on the window there. I saved the photo and posted it in the Winter Scenes Photo Gallery: http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...500&ppuser=628
Also the deck on the Pine Island cam has snow up to the railing. You can only see the top of the thermometer now. Wonder if the beer bottle will be buried with the new snow on the way.

Area Cam Site Temps:
The Black Cat Weather Cam 3.6F,
Varney Point cam has -8.5F,
Winnipesaukee Cam in Alton Bay has -13F
Weirs Cam has -4F.
It is really cold out there this morning.

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by Grant

When was the last winter with this much snow? I remember one in the last five or six years, but can't remember which. Another possible 8 inches on the way tomorrow would bring the ground cover up close to four feet -- as of March 1st. The frozen lake has a nice insulating blanket -- could this mean a later ice-out? Wish I'd pushed my guess into the first week of May!

Never.well not since nws has been keeping records.