Warm-Up???

dpg · 01-07-2008, 12:01 PM

Are you folks supposed to get a nice (?) warm-up this week? Near 60 down here in Mass tomorrow. What'll that do to the lake ice, will it be unsafe after this week?

Went to Foxwoods (Connecticut) Sunday, no snow there at all. Well, that is except for where it was plowed into a pile but that doesn't count

Quite a variance in snow amounts from the Lakes Region to Conn.

Oh ya, I did win a little!!!

HomeWood · 01-07-2008, 05:25 PM

According to weather.com it's only supposed to last a few days, but take that with a grain of salt..As long as it gets cold again and the derby goes on as planned with good ice.

It was 70 here in Raleigh today and supposed to be warmer tomorrow. I think I'm going to hurl!

CanisLupusArctos · 01-08-2008, 12:04 AM

The January thaw is underway in NH. Highs across much of the area were in the mid- and upper-40s while the lake ice kept Black Cat from getting out of the 30s. The high topped out at 39 degrees today. In summertime fashion, there are air quality alerts issued for unhealthy air pollution levels in southern NH and coastal Maine for tomorrow. The southwest flow that is providing all this warm air is also bringing us all the air pollution of the east coast.

This warmup will last for a couple more days until a cold front comes to our rescue Wednesday night. It will not be an arctic front, but it is currently plowing through a great deal of abnormally warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. This is touching off a nearly-unprecedented and widespread January tornado outbreak from Wisconsin and Michigan all the way down to Oklahoma. The severe storms are maintaining their tornado-producing energy even during these nighttime hours as I write this.

The jury's still out, on how much of this energy will be left in the front when it crosses NH on Wednesday. It will probably not be anything close to the devastation we're now seeing from Wisconsin to Oklahoma, but this kind of weather system in mid-winter has been full of sudden surprises for the Lakes Region in the past. There could be strong wind, so stay tuned to later forecasts if you'd be affected.

In the warm spell for the next 2 days I think the lake itself will probably not get any higher than 45, due to the lake ice and the 33-degree water that extends down several feet below the surface.

After the front passes we'll lose this unseasonably warm weather and be in the 30s. A coastal storm on Friday (perhaps mountain snow and coastal rain?) will help to bring down 'normal' cold air for the weekend and early next week.

The latest forecast from the local National Weather Service office is always on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter page.

Blue Thunder · 01-08-2008, 09:47 AM

CLA, R2B, and Rose,
The GFS is hinting at something for Monday. Any thoughts?

Blue Thunder

Rose · 01-08-2008, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Any thoughts?
Blue Thunder

Yeah, I thought it was funny when I gave me officemate a shock by telling her the models were forecasting anywhere from 10 to 23 inches for Bedford, MA next Monday. I'm so cruel.

Those amounts were from the 06Z (1:00 am local time) model run. The 00Z run (7 pm last night) kept the storm offshore. Haven't looked at the 12Z runs yet, but I normally take the "off-hour" model (06Z or 18Z runs) with a grain of salt because there's less data available to initialize those runs.

Resident 2B · 01-08-2008, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

CLA, R2B, and Rose,
The GFS is hinting at something for Monday. Any thoughts?

Blue Thunder

Wow! Don fixed the site. It is now faster than lightning!

BT,

I just spent about an hour looking at recent model runs. You are correct that the GFS is showing something very big (actually very low) off the coast in a position that means snow storm at this time of the year. The lower level temps in the GFS also support frozen p-type, and the upper levels are cold meaning snow and not ice.

I usually do not trust the GFS in the 5 to 7 day range, so I looked at other models. The UKMET shows a minor event at most so it is not in agreement with the GFS, at least not right now. I was about to conclude the GFS is wrong, but I looked at the ECMWF and it is in good agreement with the GFS in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Usually, when the GFS and the ECMWF both see something this big, the UKMET verifies it in a day or two.

So, at this time it is something with potential that needs to be watched closely. Timing looks like 6Z to 12Z on Tuesday, meaning a Monday night storm.

Again, this is not a prediction or a forecast yet, it is just something to watch.

In the meanwhile, enjoy this great spring-like weather for a day or two then get your rain gear out. The slopes and trails will take a real beating the next few days before winter returns. I hope the newer ice holds on the lake.

R2B

Blue Thunder · 01-08-2008, 02:40 PM

Thanks R2B and Rose,
I'm nowhere near as meteorologically savvy as the two of you. Actually, I only know just enough to get myself in trouble!
I completely understand the wobbling of the GFS in the 5-7 day timeframe. It's been doing that for years now and I think it still fools some forecasters.
I just like to plant the seed to see if you two and CLA will actually apply some science to it and take a chance on a forecast. I and the other closet weather geeks appreciate it.

Blue Thunder

CanisLupusArctos · 01-08-2008, 02:48 PM

I'm with R2B when he talks about the GFS for this far out. Having seen the GFS flip-flop on the issues (sorry, it's an election day thing) for the extended forecast too much in the past, I will go with the consensus of all the models that something potentially big is a good possibility on the East Coast early next week, but nothing is definite since we're still about a week away.

I will say this: Events since the beginning of December (and especially in the last few days) prove that the weather is currently playing with a *lot* of energy near and within the continental US. The past 30 days have been very stormy, and the storms of the past week have been record-breaking strong.

On the map we have plenty of below-zero air in Canada and especially Alaska, while the Gulf of Mexico is currently showing us what it's got. The two air masses are doing some serious battle and will likely continue to do so. Regarding Monday's potential storm, I'm going to guess for a lower-than-average forecaster confidence (and uncertain models as well) because we're going through a weather pattern change beginning tomorrow and the process should be complete this weekend. If you get a storm on the first day of a new weather pattern, it's a pretty sure bet that man and machine will both have a hard time figuring out what it will do.

chipj29 · 01-09-2008, 08:14 AM

This warm up has put a huge dent in my snowpack. What was 29" on New Years Day, was down to 19" last night. There was noticably less snow this morning too. Ugh.

Regarding the Monday storm, last nights Euro run had us in pretty good shape. Keep your fingers crossed. Either way, there are some pretty strong signals that in the longer term (until mid Feb at least) we are in for some pretty active weather.

Anyone seen the cold on the maps heading in for the Jan 23 timeframe?

01-07-2008, 12:01 PM	#1
dpg Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2,560 Thanks: 149 Thanked 229 Times in 166 Posts	Warm-Up??? Are you folks supposed to get a nice (?) warm-up this week? Near 60 down here in Mass tomorrow. What'll that do to the lake ice, will it be unsafe after this week? Went to Foxwoods (Connecticut) Sunday, no snow there at all. Well, that is except for where it was plowed into a pile but that doesn't count Quite a variance in snow amounts from the Lakes Region to Conn. Oh ya, I did win a little!!!

01-08-2008, 12:04 AM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Warm up is here The January thaw is underway in NH. Highs across much of the area were in the mid- and upper-40s while the lake ice kept Black Cat from getting out of the 30s. The high topped out at 39 degrees today. In summertime fashion, there are air quality alerts issued for unhealthy air pollution levels in southern NH and coastal Maine for tomorrow. The southwest flow that is providing all this warm air is also bringing us all the air pollution of the east coast. This warmup will last for a couple more days until a cold front comes to our rescue Wednesday night. It will not be an arctic front, but it is currently plowing through a great deal of abnormally warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. This is touching off a nearly-unprecedented and widespread January tornado outbreak from Wisconsin and Michigan all the way down to Oklahoma. The severe storms are maintaining their tornado-producing energy even during these nighttime hours as I write this. The jury's still out, on how much of this energy will be left in the front when it crosses NH on Wednesday. It will probably not be anything close to the devastation we're now seeing from Wisconsin to Oklahoma, but this kind of weather system in mid-winter has been full of sudden surprises for the Lakes Region in the past. There could be strong wind, so stay tuned to later forecasts if you'd be affected. In the warm spell for the next 2 days I think the lake itself will probably not get any higher than 45, due to the lake ice and the 33-degree water that extends down several feet below the surface. After the front passes we'll lose this unseasonably warm weather and be in the 30s. A coastal storm on Friday (perhaps mountain snow and coastal rain?) will help to bring down 'normal' cold air for the weekend and early next week. The latest forecast from the local National Weather Service office is always on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter page.

01-08-2008, 09:47 AM	#4
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 935 Thanks: 247 Thanked 323 Times in 148 Posts	CLA, R2B, and Rose, The GFS is hinting at something for Monday. Any thoughts? Blue Thunder __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

01-08-2008, 02:40 PM	#7
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 935 Thanks: 247 Thanked 323 Times in 148 Posts	Thanks R2B and Rose, I'm nowhere near as meteorologically savvy as the two of you. Actually, I only know just enough to get myself in trouble! I completely understand the wobbling of the GFS in the 5-7 day timeframe. It's been doing that for years now and I think it still fools some forecasters. I just like to plant the seed to see if you two and CLA will actually apply some science to it and take a chance on a forecast. I and the other closet weather geeks appreciate it. Blue Thunder __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

01-08-2008, 02:48 PM	#8
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	I'm with R2B I'm with R2B when he talks about the GFS for this far out. Having seen the GFS flip-flop on the issues (sorry, it's an election day thing) for the extended forecast too much in the past, I will go with the consensus of all the models that something potentially big is a good possibility on the East Coast early next week, but nothing is definite since we're still about a week away. I will say this: Events since the beginning of December (and especially in the last few days) prove that the weather is currently playing with a lot of energy near and within the continental US. The past 30 days have been very stormy, and the storms of the past week have been record-breaking strong. On the map we have plenty of below-zero air in Canada and especially Alaska, while the Gulf of Mexico is currently showing us what it's got. The two air masses are doing some serious battle and will likely continue to do so. Regarding Monday's potential storm, I'm going to guess for a lower-than-average forecaster confidence (and uncertain models as well) because we're going through a weather pattern change beginning tomorrow and the process should be complete this weekend. If you get a storm on the first day of a new weather pattern, it's a pretty sure bet that man and machine will both have a hard time figuring out what it will do.

01-07-2008, 05:25 PM	#2
HomeWood Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Clayton,NC / Sanbornton,NH Posts: 610 Thanks: 125 Thanked 136 Times in 74 Posts	According to weather.com it's only supposed to last a few days, but take that with a grain of salt..As long as it gets cold again and the derby goes on as planned with good ice. It was 70 here in Raleigh today and supposed to be warmer tomorrow. I think I'm going to hurl!

01-09-2008, 08:14 AM	#9
chipj29 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bow Posts: 1,874 Thanks: 521 Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts	This warm up has put a huge dent in my snowpack. What was 29" on New Years Day, was down to 19" last night. There was noticably less snow this morning too. Ugh. Regarding the Monday storm, last nights Euro run had us in pretty good shape. Keep your fingers crossed. Either way, there are some pretty strong signals that in the longer term (until mid Feb at least) we are in for some pretty active weather. Anyone seen the cold on the maps heading in for the Jan 23 timeframe?