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07-06-2023, 04:05 PM | #1 |
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Self Correcting
Honestly the good news about this situation is things always tend to self correct over time. High interest investors tend to sell off which allows family people to purchase during a better financial climate. Is there turmoil in between, sure, but the opportunities do eventually become available as they have in the past cycle after cycle….
Just my opinion…. Dan
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07-06-2023, 08:37 PM | #2 | |
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07-07-2023, 09:45 AM | #4 |
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Yes, a good point. But that may be a decade or two from now. So far, boomers have continued to push up values by continuing to live in large expensive places even after retirement, and then also living longer.
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07-07-2023, 12:01 PM | #5 |
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The youngest Boomers are 58.
But that would be past the peak births and headed to the lull of the Generation X. Also, the first line of Boomers reaching pre-retirement had more reasonable valuations to work with... so that was the steepest part of the demand curve. Covid pulled forward some demand... and with the higher product costs of new construction and renovation... put even more pressure on prices. Roche does a pretty decent job of comparison to see when we reach peak pricing.https://www.laconiadailysun.com/real...a105bf89e.html |
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07-08-2023, 10:51 AM | #6 |
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Boomers get blamed for everything now. It's the American way now, it's always someone else's fault!
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07-08-2023, 02:23 PM | #7 | |
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The lake economics are a screaming example of that, as John's link points out. I thought my Winni house was a once in a lifetime reward that made no financial sense. Wrong! My splurge would be a huge windfall if I sold. It's as if I've been using it for free. |
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07-08-2023, 02:40 PM | #8 | |
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07-08-2023, 07:17 PM | #9 | |
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I'm sure they will be saying the same thing 40 years from now when the average American home in the US is 3 million or more. |
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07-09-2023, 10:28 AM | #10 | |
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But stepping back from your first house or my second house as one-off examples, you don't need to believe me. There are 100 places you could look for this info. Here's one set of broader data--30 years ago (one generation) the median home price to median income ratio was 4.4, today it is 7.6. https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-...ehold%20income. |
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07-09-2023, 01:08 PM | #11 | |
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It would be relatively hard for me to find an on-water lot to build around Winnipesaukee or the tear-downs that have diminished for the time being. But I can easily find lots in the lakes region to build on. Basic materials cost have come way down... so it is a great time to build. What is in short supply is skilled labor. But the DIY field is ever expanding. I think as we build more housing... local prices will either stabilize or maybe even drop. Just like the late 1980's and the 2008 cycle. Properties that rose the most, will most likely drop the most. Oddly, our kids don't see ''suffering''. More of their finances are labor than capital. Labor currently has a pretty strong hand. Also, high interest rates is a great time to take out a mortgage. A contrarian investor would take the lower cost of the property, pay the higher interest rate, and look forward to a time when they would refinance. Thus ending up with the lower initial cost and the lower interest rate. |
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07-09-2023, 06:33 PM | #12 | |
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If you have other data or analyses that disagree, please share. As I wrote before, one person's experience or a drive around the lake doesn't really shed light on whether or not it's tougher in general to buy a house |
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07-09-2023, 08:39 PM | #13 |
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I'm sure the data is correct.
I think it is more the way that each generation places value on things. Homes over time have gotten bigger... but we don't know if that trend will continue. They may also be willing to put a greater percentage of their income into a home and forego other expenditures. So will they be willing to part with more to buy the homes around the lake that in general are now larger than the past? What value will they give that? It will take time for the trend line to expose itself. |
07-13-2023, 03:26 PM | #14 | |
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07-13-2023, 03:36 PM | #15 | |
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07-13-2023, 08:16 PM | #16 |
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Your taxes and insurance will always be less than with the addition of a mortgage.
A younger buyer without inheriting will always pay more than you currently do... and will do so willingly. Investment in a smaller home allows for higher quality, investment in other assets, and in relation that should bring with it lower taxes and insurance comparatively to the larger homes around it. Also savings in energy costs comparatively. The problem in when the investment in other assets are depreciating assets. |
07-14-2023, 06:58 AM | #17 | |
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07-14-2023, 09:09 AM | #18 |
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All the usual building services, landscaping, shovel, plow, paint, insure, etc. Heat, some places include internet. Some sort of meal program. The big, to me, cost is continuing care--if you run out of money, they won't evict you, if need be, you can progress to assisted living, full nursing care, etc. I don't know current law, but in the not so distant past, companies were limited to the number of full nursing beds they could have. If they were full, you were taken to another facility, hopefully nearby.
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07-14-2023, 10:33 AM | #19 | |
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07-14-2023, 01:57 PM | #20 |
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In my area in Mass, I've noticed a lot more single family homes with for rent signs lately. Many people that bought homes before the Covid spike and refinanced to sub 3% mortgages are realizing they can rent their home for more than double their monthly mortgage payment.
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07-08-2023, 07:29 PM | #21 | |
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Second homes are most often purchased by near retirees/retirees (55+); that demographic generally has the highest amount of assets due to years of working and building their wealth. They may purchase as a vacation getaway, but also think of that last ''forever home''. Lake houses tend not to be ''starter homes''. So the latest surge is the cycle of Boomers reaching 55+ and will drop as the number of people in that group drops. GenX tended to be a smaller number of people... so they will not be able to keep up the same demand. When Millennials reach 55, because of the size of that generation, a new cycle will start another surge. Their taste in housing is different so a lot of remodeling and building will go on when that happens... we expect that run to begin around 2051. |
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07-09-2023, 07:40 AM | #22 | |
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07-09-2023, 12:53 PM | #23 | |
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07-07-2023, 09:25 AM | #24 |
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That's usually the case for off water properties but lakefront doesn't go down much because there's limited supply.
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