Tornado WARNING - Sunday, 1:30pm

[This'nThat]

Merideth is under a tornado warning right now. Baseball size hail has been reported. NWS: * Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Belknap County in central New Hampshire...
southern Grafton County in northern New Hampshire...
western Carroll County in northern New Hampshire...

until 1:45. Get in the basement, away from windows, under a table, bring a mattress, get under the mattress.

[NHKathy]

Any reports from the Moultonborough area?
Hope all is well up there...

[Skipper of the Sea Que]

At this time the Tornado Warning area appears to be the same as the Thunderstorm Warning area. The NWS release:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008
Expiration: 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BELKNAP COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...
SOUTHERN OXFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CONWAY TO LACONIA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRYEBURG...OSSIPEE...EFFINGHAM...KEZAR FALLS AND HIRAM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
LAT...LON 4400 7113 4417 7092 4409 7085 4409 7087
4405 7086 4404 7080 4397 7074 4387 7078
4386 7080 4382 7080 4379 7098 4374 7099
4344 7154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 236DEG 48KT 4395 7104 4358 7134

From This web site The area in RED on the county map shows Tornado Warning area. **edited to add updated info @ 2:20 PM. The link map no longer shows a Tornado or Thunderstorm Warning. At this moment. Conditions change fast.

Again, sorry for the CAPS. That's how the NWS sends their Warnings.

Stay safe.

[gravy boat]

Yes, interesting watching the storm clouds build and morph from the south side of the lake.

More warnings every few minutes -- now Severe Thunderstorm Warning for some areas.

Excellent place to see how it affects your location is through WMUR's interactive radar -- some may not already know about this sight. You can zoom in to your street...it's pretty intersting.

More storms forming as they move the Lakes Region....one coming up from our south right now...crack!

www.wmur.com

GB

[froggy]

In a Mac, create a dashboard with the WX radar and maps available.
Then your F12 key brings it up & then puts it away.

Only on a mac!!!

[fatlazyless]

Is this an accurate report or just a mistake?

A wind gust of 168mph at 1:34pm today, is reported on the Black Cat Weather Cam.

168mph....that's some gust....probably caused by a leaf blower accidentally aimed at the anamometer, or something?

Is a hurricane with 168mph winds rated as a force 5?

[NASCARNH]

I saw that as well. It was saying 51 MPH about 15 minutes before. Wondering if there is damage up there. Not so bad here in Concord.

[sa meredith]

Any report from anyone in Meredith area?????? Wife is there now, and can not reach her on cell.

[steadyon]

I was at Walters in holderness when it hit. the building was hit by lightning
and the fire dept. was in the bar with full gear. it was wild.
everyone moved into the center of the bar and watched it pass.
at 300 I was back in meredith to find riverbed remains all down my street and tree limbs all over my yard.
my screen porch looked like a fire hose had been sprayed at it.
right now it is light gray and calm.

[JonLevis]

We were out off Bear when it got nasty...kind of snuck up on us! My son and I were to busy floating and enjoying the day! I haven't been stuck in rainlike that in a long time. We ended up leaving the Lake at 3ish and were soaked just from the run from the boat to the truck...and I have a covered slip!

[Gatto Nero]

I doubt it hit 168 mph but it was the wildest weather I have seen since I've been on the island. My boat was beating up my 40' aluminum dock pretty good. I think if I was standing on the end of the dock I would have been thrown off from the jolts more than once. That's with snubbers and whips. For a while I was concerned that the aluminum might twist or even snap. Luckily it didn't but one of the bolts that holds the whip for the 15' whaler got pulled up from the pressure. I would say we were seeing consistent 3'+ waves and I have less than 2 miles of fetch to the north. I can't even imagine what it must have been like on the Broads side of Rattlesnake.

[ishoot308]

We were at the Owls Nest having lunch and when we came out to their dock we could see the the wall of blackness coming in over the Meredith area. Needless to say we made very quick tracks back to the Glendale docks. We made it back with about 20 minutes to spare before the sky just opened up, just enough time to unpack the boat and head back to our RV. I'm glad I wasn't caught on the lake during this storm!

Dan

[CanisLupusArctos]

Of all the days I had to pick for some travel (which is now rare, thanks to high gas prices) it was now. My family is headed to the house at Black Cat now and should be able to see damage in daylight.

Here is what I have been able to learn about the wind event recorded by my (automated) weather station today, along with some other useful facts about this kind of weather, particularly as it relates to the lake.

Storm Prediction Center didn't seem too excited about today's severe weather threat when they made their prediction and I couldn't find any reason to predict much more than the "relaxation CD" style of thunderstorms we've had every other day this week. But then again, the weather is beyond mankind's control or prediction and it likes to assert that fact. Today was one of those days.

After a nice rare sleep-in, I logged on to check email but when my home page popped up I noticed it said "Tornado Warning."

There was no tornado watch in effect at the time, which usually is not the case when a tornado warning is issued by the local office. Usually the SPC in Norman OK is on top of it already by having issued a watch for the whole area. Not today. To their credit, the maps weren't showing anything hugely dramatic like they did when the heat wave ended earlier this month. I would expect to see more severe weather from that kind of situation than from a setup like today's.

Well, we had unstable air, and there was just enough of a trigger to get it to start rising rapidly, leading to the explosive development of the storms across the state today. Sometimes it happens like that.

My first thought was that the house had been destroyed and that the computer was still registering its last available weather readings which included the 168 mph. I remotely checked both the cam and weather station and found they were still live, still getting AC power (hadn't even switched to battery.)

So I threw out the 168 mph. I am calling that invalid for now. I do have a correction factor in the computer which corrects for the fact that there are trees with leaves in summertime. In winter the correction is not necessary except for one direction that still has trees. Today I got out a calculator and removed the correction factor to get the raw wind speed reading. It came out to 112 mph.

112 mph is still a very significant wind event, so my next step was to find any reason to doubt the equipment. I logged in remotely and checked it, and found it to have been working fine immediately before and after the wind event. Furthermore, I all the other major parameters (other than wind) that the station measures didn't feature any changes nearly as dramatic as the wind. For example, if the barometer, temperature, and other factors also experienced wacky, unbelievable changes at the same time as the wind, I could say the weather station or computer was acting up. But that wasn't the case.

All the other factors behaved as I would expect them to behave in a storm like this. The wind was the only odd child. If it had experienced something catastrophic like a lightning strike or physical damage, it wouldn't have gone back to functioning normally immediately after the storm passed.

I spent some more time checking and re-checking, looking at the storm itself, and waiting to see what sort of severe weather reports came in from the area itself.

I downloaded the entire 3-hour time lapse sequence and saw cloud formations that looked like they belonged to a tornado-producing thunderstorm, but I still didn't see what I needed to see: The funnel itself, or an obvious wall cloud (precursor to funnel).

Radar had indicated this storm to be a potential tornado-producer. There was no "ground truth" as forecasters call it, when human eyes actually confirm the presence of a funnel cloud (not touching ground) or a tornado. Sometimes a rotating wall cloud is good for confirmation also.

For those wondering how the radar works, it is relatively new (a few years old) and is capable of scanning at different tilts from horizontal as well as measuring the direction and speed of winds within a storm. This is how meteorologists find rotation within a thunderstorm. Before this radar was developed, they needed ground truth in order to issue a tornado warning. By the time the warning was out, often times the tornado had already killed people. This radar allows them to issue tornado warnings when it looks like one is about to form. This provides warning time that wasn't available before, so it saves lives. The drawback is that rotation within a thunderstorm doesn't always turn into a tornado. That's apparently what happened today - maybe.

It might have been a funnel cloud. More on that in a minute.

I put together what I had:

- The power at the house was still on.

- The webcam showed impressive clouds but still no ground truth. I would've loved to have seen some images saved from Gatto Nero's cam, or BearCam.

- I could find nothing malfunctioning in the weather station or its computer on a technical level.

- Wind speed shows an event well above 75 mph, which is the highest speed I've actually witnessed there (a couple years ago.) The trees survived that, and then 64 mph from the opposite direction ripped them apart during the April 16 2007 storm.

- Wind direction graph shows a steady east wind for an hour or so leading up to the main event, and then a total scatter-plot of all directions during the main event.

- I didn't have a way of seeing today's damage, and it's possible (based on past experience with high wind events) that any damage could look unremarkable to a non-scientific eye. Many years ago a near-tornado situation threw the heavy metal rowboat off the dock and through the air while leaving the trees untouched. It can do some odd things.

Here is the funnel cloud part, which is still unconfirmed:

I tried to answer the question: How could a wind gust of 112 mph hit the wind sensors at the house without at least knocking out the power?

Here's how: A funnel cloud doesn't affect what's below it. It's harmless to whatever it's not touching (when it touches down, it's a tornado.) That's why they tell you to get to the basement, or into the deepest ditch you can find. It is always safer to be below it. With this in mind, I asked the National Weather Service if it was possible that the very bottom of a funnel cloud touched the wind sensors, which are located on a tower well above the roof peak. He thought for a minute and said yes. Once again, if that happened, there would be other signs of that happening. I would expect to see damage to the far upper sections of adjacent trees, and the debris thrown about.

From past experience I also know that wind gusts don't always touch the ground. In January 2007 a thunderstorm passed with a wind gust of 65 mph. The air flow came down out of the cloud and immediately ascended. The gas grill with full tank got lifted enough to be pushed 10 feet, and from there the damage to the trees "downstream" occurred higher and higher up over a path of 1000 feet or so. The final victim lost its uppermost 10-foot section. With this event in mind, I will say it's possible that we had a similar straight-line but "diving & retreating" wind gust that reached the wind sensors but not all the way to the ground.

It is also possible that the weather station recorded one thing and the computer somehow misheard it, but this is very unlikely based on my experience with the equipment. If there's going to be a miscommunication it's usually the computer acting "deaf" to the weather station rather than "hyper."

Who knows. The Union Leader called after seeing the 168 mph reading on my site and I told them what I've figured out (and guessed) so far. It's like the weather was waiting for me to bite the bullet on the gas expense and go visit friends.

My family is at Black Cat now and will be able to see more in daylight. Hopefully I'll join them later tomorrow or Tuesday morning. For now, visiting friends is always more meaningful than this or anything else, in the long run.

In the meantime, it's an unconfirmed report of 112 mph at Black Cat Island. If it was 112 mph, it was very localized, which has happened before. If it wasn't, then it was at least a very significant wind event on a par with the most intense thunderstorms I've ever witnessed around here.

NWS-Gray reports a chance of more severe weather across New Hampshire tomorrow (Monday.) This is from their latest discussion, written at 8 pm:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTION ALONG THE MAINE COAST.


UPDATE: I just had a good look at the station's minute-by-minute records during the height of the storm. I'll type them up when I'm more awake and no longer socializing, but for now here's what I see:

The peak wind speed (whatever it was) coincides with the maximum rainfall rate of 0.13" per minute (7.80" per hour) and also a rapid wind shift from NW to S to NE.

The rainfall rate had been sustained at 0.08" per minute (4.80" per hour) since 13:28. Immediately following the peak wind at 13:35 the rainfall rate dropped to 0.05" per minute (3 inches per hour.) At 13:36 the rate dropped to 0.01" per minute which is about the minimum for "heavy" and continued until 13:42. Heavy rain had begun at 13:15.

Temperature dropped from 75 to 65 between 12:55 and 13:10. Wind was calm or very light until 13:10. Winds approached 10 mph at that time, which is about the time NWS-Gray was preparing their tornado warning.

At 13:22, winds were averaging 10 mph (no correction for trees applied) and gusting to 32 mph. Direction was from the NW (where the closest trees are.) A raw reading of 32 mph from that direction in winter usually translates to an all-out hurricane on the lake in front of the house, and can be difficult to sleep through. Wind speed reached 20 mph (raw) from the NW at 13:27. Then a 98 mph gust comes (raw) also from the NW, and the rainfall ramps up big-time. Between 13:29 and 13:30 the barometer actually rises from 30.01 to 30.04.

At 13:34 the wind shifts to south and then to NE. Peak wind of 112 (raw) comes from the NE. It quickly dies off to 2 mph and then back up for one more gust to 96 mph (all NE) before ending at 13:44, also the end of the rain.

Since tornadoes usually occur in the rain-free part of the storm, I would be very surprised if this was a tornado/funnel cloud. A tornado-like phenomenon that often accompanies extremely heavy rain is a microburst. That's my guess for what this event was, for now.

Still need to see more. Now bedtime.

[chipj29]

Great stuff CLA. Keep up the good work!

[upthesaukee]

CLA, back in the late 70's and early 80's, we lived in Bossier City LA, and saw our fair share of severe weather.

Yesterday, around 2PM or so, on our way back home from Farmington to Alton, right around the Alton/New Durham line on rte 11, looking across the Merrymeeting swamp, you could see tremendously heavier rain than that we were in. Rounding the left hand curve (heading west on rte 11), you could see on the road what looked almost like waves of water across the road, not from cars, but from the wind. Visibility dropped from a mile or more to an estimated 100-150 yards, and the sides of the road looked like streams. Wind was significant, but not shaking the Blazer. We were out of it by the time we reached Merrymeeting campground, back to just rain with a mile or more visibility.

I haven't seen anything like that since LA. and look forward to your eye's inspection when you get home. Hope all is well there.

[SIKSUKR]

Not being home is just not fair CLA.I would lean toward the microburst myself,which are associated with tornadic conditions.I've seen a couple at Cannon Mt that have done a huge amount of damage.Very large blowdown areas of around a couple hundred feet.All the trees layed down flat but no cyclonic pattern to the final position of the debris field.Great stuff though.No damage at your house I trust?

[C Tucker]

I was at Black Cat during the storm. It was the worst I remember since we came in late 1960's. We face the northwest and there were incredible waves rolling into our cove. There was a lightning strike that I believe struck the island between our location and the bridge. It was the most powerful I have ever felt. I could actually feel the pressure wave. I don't know if that jolt could have affected your weather equipment but the heaviest rain immediately followed this strike.

[DickR]

About three years ago, late July, my wife called frantically around 9pm from our place on Long Island (NE side), screaming about high wind out front, with rain blasting sideways. With the front spotlight on, she couldn't see as far as the swim raft anchored about 75 feet out from shore. I packed a bag quickly and hit the road again. I arrived about 11pm, to complete calm. Power was out. The lower end of the Neck road had a few leaves and minor twigs on the pavement, but nothing notable otherwise. The driveway going in to the cottage, parallel to shore and about 60 feet back from the water, also had just some blown down leaves and minor twigs on it.

The inner half of my dock was ripped off the outer half, upturned, and substantially dismantled. The boat was still tied to the outer half, which was held down by a ballast platform loaded with rock. A neighbor had run a line from the boat to a tree on shore to keep the whole thing from drifting off.

In the morning I walked the shore, headed southeast. It appeared that whatever it was (microburst?) was exceedingly localized. It paralleled the shore, then, at a curve in the shoreline, it slammed into shore, snapping or uprooting upwards of a dozen large trees across two lots. We're talking about two feet and larger at the base. Just beyond those it veered off into the woods, leaving a similar path of destruction, then abruptly stopping. Further downshore there were a few other trees blown over.

I had never seen such destruction from a summer storm, or such localized destruction. The following week there wasn't any mention of this in the Meredith News. Too local, I guess. Too bad they missed such a great photo op.

[NHKathy]

CLA - Any new news on the review of the 112mph wind report? Just curious...

[SAMIAM]

Tornado's don't go up and down hills......the worst thing that could happen is a brief , isolated micro burst that would do the same damage as a tornado but only in a small area.Same with hurricanes...they break up rapidly once they get inland ,here in the north.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Thank you all for curiosity, interest and concern.

Just a quick note because it's swim time and then more to do.

The basement was found flooded (now cleaned and drying), and the condition of the yard supports the incredibly intense rainfall rates recorded by the station.

However... I have seen more wind damage from the 40 mph events that we see regularly in normal thunderstorms and also in the wake of autumn-winter cold blasts. Yet eyewitnesses here all report incredible wind even if they couldn't measure it, and some of them have seen their share of bad storms.

The gust WAS recorded by the weather station prior to being picked up and sent out by the computer that monitors the weather station. Therefore, rule out computer issues.

I'm interested in the possibility of a lightning strike. The lake water temp monitor and a PC were both found with malfunctioning internet connections.

However...

- They were surge protected by battery backup, and so was the internet connection.

- The PC was off at the time.

- A second computer was on at the time, NOT surge protected, and shows no signs of damage.

- No other electronics on the same surge protectors, internet connection, or elsewhere in the house showed signs of harm.


Now the focus turns to wondering how to fund the replacement of the damaged components and in the meantime, if anyone feels like tackling the academic meteorology/engineering problem of "What happened?" it'll sure be interesting to piece it together.

Swim time.