Ice Out Prediction

hazelnut · 04-07-2004, 08:08 PM

Seeing that I have nothing better to do than take care of my twins I decided to do a little science project. Let’s look at the facts, shall we? This is the extended forecast:
Fri Apr 09 48/30 Sat Apr 10 47/29 Sun Apr 11 42/31 Mon Apr 12 45/35 Tue Apr 13 50/39 Wed Apr 14 53/34 Thu Apr 15 53/33 Fri Apr 16 48/31
Daytime Average: 48-50 Night: 32-35. This is based on forecasts which have a margin of error anyway.
Now last year on these days the temps were recorded as:
9th 50/28 10th 52/28 11th 46/27 12th 64/36 13th 52/37 14th 57/25 15th 79/39 16th 73/39
Daytime High: 59 Night Low: 32
The 15th and 16th really spiked the average. Without those two days it's 53 for an average. After the 16th the temps moderated to an average of 51 degrees until the 25th-ICE OUT. The highest was 66 but the three days prior to Ice-Out were only in the mid forties.
SO I have been following the www.nhboat.com Ice-Out pictures. I did the same thing last year. If you compare to last year at this time we are way ahead in terms of melting. In 2003 on this date the ice was still pretty socked in around the docks at Silver Sands. Currently the Ice is just about wide open to the left and right of the docks and by my uneducated guess about 20-30 feet out past the end of the docks. If you look at 2001 you can see that the ice hadn’t really even started subsiding until April 15th and on this day it was totally locked in around the docks. That year Ice-Out was May 2nd.
So what does all this mean? Absolutely nothing I guess. I can only say that based upon what I see I think we are ahead of last year’s schedule. All we need is one or two warmer than average days and a good wind and we’ll see some major progress. I’ll go with an April 17th Ice-Out.

madrasahs · 04-07-2004, 09:31 PM

Nice science work -- and a good guess on the day. (I figure it'll be out on April 15th).

The biggest wildcard in the equation is the wind.

The ice, even though it may appear as thick as 8", has many watery, vertical, passages through it. (It appears as silver "straws" frozen together).
As soon as the wind starts jostling the water through those passages, the ice rapidly fragments and blows away.

Of course, everything I just wrote is guesswork based on what I watched last year

. Last year, I was able to drive my aluminum outboard runabout through it fairly fast, if a bit bumpy on the firmer stuff.

Orion · 04-07-2004, 09:35 PM

Wow Hazelnut, that's a lot of thinking goin' on there.
Although your analysis may have some merit, there are really too many other variables to consider..... the thickness of the ice; the reason for the receding ice at Silver Sands (could just be more flow from the river feeding Mt. View Yacht Club); water temp; rain; wind; solar heating of shoreline; phases of the moon (just kidding); ...... you name it. I do think that the extended periods of rain coming up could certainly thin the ice layer.

Grant · 04-07-2004, 09:41 PM

Wind, temp, and the fact that there was a lot fo 30+-inch-thick ice on the Lake this year. So while the photos from nhboat.com indicate we are ahead of some recent years, there *could* be some thick chunks stubbornly clinging to life out there.

Then again, it could be ice-out by this time next week.

Me, I'm adjusting down but still stubbornly clinging to at least April 20.

Mink Islander · 04-08-2004, 05:44 AM

Considering that the average date is around April 20th, I tend to agree with Hazelnut that it will run a little on the earlier side this year, so the 17h definitely has potential. While the rain and air temps are important, the critical event last year was having a big blow come through the region. The western half of the lake had significant ice cover on April 23 last year only to disappear to visit the Weirs and otherwise dissipate by the 25th when a strong NW wind kicked up. Here's hoping....

hazelnut · 04-08-2004, 08:37 AM

Oh so many variables. Here is another one.

The Water temperature is at 38 degrees. It was 38 degrees yesterday as well. Last year the water temp hit 38 degrees on April 16th. Nine days later we had Ice-Out. So to back up my prediction nine days from yesterday is April 16th. I'll stick with the 17th though.

Grant · 04-08-2004, 11:06 AM

Good article from today's Citizen regarding ice-out...

Big Lake Ice-Out at hand; Observer thinks it could occur within 2 weeks

By RICH BERGERON

Staff Writer

GILFORD — Ice-Out on Lake Winnipesaukee is two weeks away, maybe less, according to a local observer.

"We use Lily Pond as a gauge," said Dave Emerson, owner of Emerson Aviation. "When the ice is out on the pond, usually the lake has ice out about 10 days afterward." Lily Pond was less than half covered with ice Wednesday afternoon. Emerson tries to get up in the air for an ice check once a day when conditions don’t keep him grounded.

Wednesday, the ice was still solid in many places, and huge sheets covered the lake off Ellacoya and in Alton Bay. Swirl patterns, some open water channels, and a network of cracks could be seen from the air in the surface of the ice. The thickest ice in The Broads could still be up to a foot thick, Emerson claims.

"I know right now the ice isn’t really going anywhere," Emerson said, "When there’s more open water it’s like a blender. Ice chunks blow all over the lake."

"It all depends on the wind. It usually comes out of the northwest, but storms can make it come out of the east."

The wind-chill factor keeps the ice solid and is the most extreme at the widest part of the lake. "The ice usually backs up into Alton Bay," said Emerson.

Emerson Aviation has been calling Ice-Out for 15 years. Before Dave started his daily checks and making the call, his father, Alan, and Ice-Out expert Bob Aldrich were the authorities on the annual rite of spring. Alan Emerson died in September 2002 and Aldrich died last fall. The elder Emerson helped Aldrich determine Ice-Out after Aldrich’s medical condition made it impossible to fly. Aldrich had been recording ice conditions for about 50 years before he died.

Dave Emerson has been recording Ice-Out status reports for about six years.

Ice-Out is officially declared when the route of the excursion vessel M/S Mount Washington is free of ice.

Rich Bergeron can be reached by calling 524-3800 ext. 5932 or by e-mail at rbergeron@citizen.com

Ambassador RAI · 04-08-2004, 03:57 PM

Great job Hazelnut,
It sounds to me like you may be starting a new career as an ice out prognosticator. I hope there is money in it for you, because those twins are going to need beau coup amount of money to attend those ivy league colleges they are going to attend. See you after ice out.

meredith necker · 04-08-2004, 06:41 PM

You just can't tell about the ice going out. Some years it gets grey, greyer, blacker and then blacker and then just breaks up and sinks. Some years it gets really black and stays that way for seemingly weeks. On the other hand, some years it gets moving around (and when it moves white ice packs a heck of a punch) and it destroys itself before it is black. Depends

Mink Islander · 04-09-2004, 05:51 AM

I guess that's why we all have such a fascination with ice-out!

Lakegeezer · 04-09-2004, 06:43 AM

Hazelnut, I like your science. The 17'th is my guess in the ice-out contest.

WakeUp · 04-09-2004, 09:33 AM

According to many of the cams, Ice-out looks on track compared to last year.
HOWEVER, the only thing that bothers me and needs to be figured in is the fact much of the ice this year was black ice. What this means is there is no air in the ice, resulting in a more dense, and stronger ice. This will push back the melting process, all things being equal. It killed me to write this reply!!

04-07-2004, 08:08 PM	#1
hazelnut Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 1,348 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 508 Thanked 462 Times in 162 Posts	Ice Out Prediction Seeing that I have nothing better to do than take care of my twins I decided to do a little science project. Let’s look at the facts, shall we? This is the extended forecast: Fri Apr 09 48/30 Sat Apr 10 47/29 Sun Apr 11 42/31 Mon Apr 12 45/35 Tue Apr 13 50/39 Wed Apr 14 53/34 Thu Apr 15 53/33 Fri Apr 16 48/31 Daytime Average: 48-50 Night: 32-35. This is based on forecasts which have a margin of error anyway. Now last year on these days the temps were recorded as: 9th 50/28 10th 52/28 11th 46/27 12th 64/36 13th 52/37 14th 57/25 15th 79/39 16th 73/39 Daytime High: 59 Night Low: 32 The 15th and 16th really spiked the average. Without those two days it's 53 for an average. After the 16th the temps moderated to an average of 51 degrees until the 25th-ICE OUT. The highest was 66 but the three days prior to Ice-Out were only in the mid forties. SO I have been following the www.nhboat.com Ice-Out pictures. I did the same thing last year. If you compare to last year at this time we are way ahead in terms of melting. In 2003 on this date the ice was still pretty socked in around the docks at Silver Sands. Currently the Ice is just about wide open to the left and right of the docks and by my uneducated guess about 20-30 feet out past the end of the docks. If you look at 2001 you can see that the ice hadn’t really even started subsiding until April 15th and on this day it was totally locked in around the docks. That year Ice-Out was May 2nd. So what does all this mean? Absolutely nothing I guess. I can only say that based upon what I see I think we are ahead of last year’s schedule. All we need is one or two warmer than average days and a good wind and we’ll see some major progress. I’ll go with an April 17th Ice-Out.

04-07-2004, 09:35 PM	#3
Orion Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Cow Island Posts: 914 Thanks: 602 Thanked 193 Times in 91 Posts	Ice Out Prediction Wow Hazelnut, that's a lot of thinking goin' on there. Although your analysis may have some merit, there are really too many other variables to consider..... the thickness of the ice; the reason for the receding ice at Silver Sands (could just be more flow from the river feeding Mt. View Yacht Club); water temp; rain; wind; solar heating of shoreline; phases of the moon (just kidding); ...... you name it. I do think that the extended periods of rain coming up could certainly thin the ice layer.

04-07-2004, 09:41 PM	#4
Grant Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Pennsyltuckey, Tuftonboro, Moultonborough Posts: 1,500 Thanks: 375 Thanked 230 Times in 124 Posts	Variables Wind, temp, and the fact that there was a lot fo 30+-inch-thick ice on the Lake this year. So while the photos from nhboat.com indicate we are ahead of some recent years, there could be some thick chunks stubbornly clinging to life out there. Then again, it could be ice-out by this time next week. Me, I'm adjusting down but still stubbornly clinging to at least April 20.

04-08-2004, 08:37 AM	#6
hazelnut Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 1,348 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 508 Thanked 462 Times in 162 Posts	*update* Oh so many variables. Here is another one. The Water temperature is at 38 degrees. It was 38 degrees yesterday as well. Last year the water temp hit 38 degrees on April 16th. Nine days later we had Ice-Out. So to back up my prediction nine days from yesterday is April 16th. I'll stick with the 17th though.

04-08-2004, 11:06 AM	#7
Grant Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Pennsyltuckey, Tuftonboro, Moultonborough Posts: 1,500 Thanks: 375 Thanked 230 Times in 124 Posts	Citizen Article Good article from today's Citizen regarding ice-out... Big Lake Ice-Out at hand; Observer thinks it could occur within 2 weeks By RICH BERGERON Staff Writer GILFORD — Ice-Out on Lake Winnipesaukee is two weeks away, maybe less, according to a local observer. "We use Lily Pond as a gauge," said Dave Emerson, owner of Emerson Aviation. "When the ice is out on the pond, usually the lake has ice out about 10 days afterward." Lily Pond was less than half covered with ice Wednesday afternoon. Emerson tries to get up in the air for an ice check once a day when conditions don’t keep him grounded. Wednesday, the ice was still solid in many places, and huge sheets covered the lake off Ellacoya and in Alton Bay. Swirl patterns, some open water channels, and a network of cracks could be seen from the air in the surface of the ice. The thickest ice in The Broads could still be up to a foot thick, Emerson claims. "I know right now the ice isn’t really going anywhere," Emerson said, "When there’s more open water it’s like a blender. Ice chunks blow all over the lake." "It all depends on the wind. It usually comes out of the northwest, but storms can make it come out of the east." The wind-chill factor keeps the ice solid and is the most extreme at the widest part of the lake. "The ice usually backs up into Alton Bay," said Emerson. Emerson Aviation has been calling Ice-Out for 15 years. Before Dave started his daily checks and making the call, his father, Alan, and Ice-Out expert Bob Aldrich were the authorities on the annual rite of spring. Alan Emerson died in September 2002 and Aldrich died last fall. The elder Emerson helped Aldrich determine Ice-Out after Aldrich’s medical condition made it impossible to fly. Aldrich had been recording ice conditions for about 50 years before he died. Dave Emerson has been recording Ice-Out status reports for about six years. Ice-Out is officially declared when the route of the excursion vessel M/S Mount Washington is free of ice. Rich Bergeron can be reached by calling 524-3800 ext. 5932 or by e-mail at rbergeron@citizen.com

04-07-2004, 09:31 PM	#2
madrasahs Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 381 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Nice science work -- and a good guess on the day. (I figure it'll be out on April 15th). The biggest wildcard in the equation is the wind. The ice, even though it may appear as thick as 8", has many watery, vertical, passages through it. (It appears as silver "straws" frozen together). As soon as the wind starts jostling the water through those passages, the ice rapidly fragments and blows away. Of course, everything I just wrote is guesswork based on what I watched last year . Last year, I was able to drive my aluminum outboard runabout through it fairly fast, if a bit bumpy on the firmer stuff.

04-08-2004, 05:44 AM	#5
Mink Islander Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 753 Thanks: 59 Thanked 271 Times in 129 Posts	Considering that the average date is around April 20th, I tend to agree with Hazelnut that it will run a little on the earlier side this year, so the 17h definitely has potential. While the rain and air temps are important, the critical event last year was having a big blow come through the region. The western half of the lake had significant ice cover on April 23 last year only to disappear to visit the Weirs and otherwise dissipate by the 25th when a strong NW wind kicked up. Here's hoping....

04-08-2004, 03:57 PM	#8
Ambassador RAI Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	ice out Great job Hazelnut, It sounds to me like you may be starting a new career as an ice out prognosticator. I hope there is money in it for you, because those twins are going to need beau coup amount of money to attend those ivy league colleges they are going to attend. See you after ice out.

04-08-2004, 06:41 PM	#9
meredith necker Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: meredith neck and bear island Posts: 48 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	the trouble is, Mother Nature You just can't tell about the ice going out. Some years it gets grey, greyer, blacker and then blacker and then just breaks up and sinks. Some years it gets really black and stays that way for seemingly weeks. On the other hand, some years it gets moving around (and when it moves white ice packs a heck of a punch) and it destroys itself before it is black. Depends

04-09-2004, 05:51 AM	#10
Mink Islander Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 753 Thanks: 59 Thanked 271 Times in 129 Posts	So True I guess that's why we all have such a fascination with ice-out!

04-09-2004, 06:43 AM	#11
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,677 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 639 Times in 290 Posts	Brilliant deduction Hazelnut, I like your science. The 17'th is my guess in the ice-out contest. __________________ -lg

04-09-2004, 09:33 AM	#12
WakeUp Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 83 Thanks: 0 Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts	Ice-out thought.... According to many of the cams, Ice-out looks on track compared to last year. HOWEVER, the only thing that bothers me and needs to be figured in is the fact much of the ice this year was black ice. What this means is there is no air in the ice, resulting in a more dense, and stronger ice. This will push back the melting process, all things being equal. It killed me to write this reply!!