Solid evidence points to late, record ice-out on Lake Winnipesaukee

[Winnisquamguy]

By DAN SEUFERT
Union Leader Correspondent

MEREDITH — The long, cold winter created a 3-foot ice pack on Lake Winnipesaukee and the ice isn't going away anytime soon.

So, the man who decides when ice-out occurs each year, Dave Emerson of Emerson Aviation, thinks ice-out this year may set records.
“We're on a pace for a record late ice-out this year,” Emerson said. He said the ice is so thick now that it could surpass the record ice-out date of May 12, 1888.

“I'm thinking it's going to happen in May, anyway,” he said. “Everything is solid, there was some open ice in February but that's frozen over since. It's unusual to be at the end of March and have no open ice.”
Ice-out on Lake Winnipesaukee is called when enough ice melts to allow the M.S. Mount Washington cruise ship to navigate to Alton Bay, Center Harbor, Weirs Beach, Meredith and Wolfeboro.

Ice-out marks the start of the spring season on the lake. That's when many islanders regain water access to their cottages. Emerson keeps tabs on the approach to ice-out by flying a small plane over the lake once the melt begins in earnest.
Two years ago today, ice-out had already been called. Emerson said 2012 marked the earliest ice-out since records have been kept, happening on March 23. In 2010, it happened on March 24.

The last time ice-out happened in May was in 2001, when it was declared on May 2.
Emerson said he expects it will be later than that this year.“This cold we've seen this winter hasn't let up, there have been no breaks in the ice anytime in the past few weeks,” he said. “Unless we have a major warm-up or a heat wave, it looks like May. There's an awful lot of ice out there.”

Meanwhile, Fish and Game officials are reminding all bob house owners to remove them no later than the end of the day Tuesday, April 1.


The law is designed to ensure that bob houses and their contents do not fall through the ice and become hazards to boaters, or get left behind on shore, said Lt. Heidi Murphy of the New Hampshire Fish and Game Department's Law Enforcement Division.


Failure to remove a bob house by the deadline can result in a fine and a one-year loss of the owner's fishing license. If Fish and Game officers cannot identify the bob house owner, Fish and Game has the authority to seize any bob house and its contents not removed by the deadline.Murphy said bob house owners are not allowed to make a bonfire with their structures. Burning a bob house on the ice is illegal and will result in a fine and one year loss of the owner's fishing license.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/2...RE03/140329495

[KarenM]

Possibly one of the most depressing posts we will see today!

[Just Sold]

Oh NO! a late Ice Out

Place large magnifying lenses at strategic locations to start melting the ice

[AC2717]

global Warming.....yeah my foot

[Jeanzb1]

"Global Warming" doesn't necessarily mean rising temperatures. It really means "climate change." "Climate warming" is kind of a misnomer. Also, I have read that a La Nina is setting up in the Pacific, which, for us, could signal a cooler and wetter summer than normal.

[Weekend Pundit]

I have to agree that it's going to be a late Ice Out this year. I have (jokingly) been saying it will be July 3rd. Before that the water will be too 'chunky' for my boat!

[CoastalWx]

Originally Posted by Jeanzb1

"Global Warming" doesn't necessarily mean rising temperatures. It really means "climate change." "Climate warming" is kind of a misnomer. Also, I have read that a La Nina is setting up in the Pacific, which, for us, could signal a cooler and wetter summer than normal.

Actually it's El-Nino.

My guess is that it's not a record this year, but it will be very late for sure.

[patman]

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

Actually it's El-Nino.

Actually...it's both. Two different things. El Niño is related to warmer temps, and La Niña is related to colder.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

[SteveA]

I had started a thread in the Weather section a few days ago.. here is the official info on the "oldest ice"

[LakeSnake]

Originally Posted by SteveA

I had started a thread in the Weather section a few days ago.. here is the official info on the "oldest ice"

Attachment 9106

Looking at the May ice out dates it appears that we have had a May ice out date roughly every 15 years since the late 1800's. Three times in my life time. No sure what has "changed" over the last 127 years. What is interesting is that three times in that period we have had May ice outs in back to back years.
Does that mean 2015 may be a May ice out as well?

Should we try our best to protect/preserve our environment - you bet!
Should the politicians and thier crony friends get rich in the process - no thanks!

As always just follow the money to the truth.

[CoastalWx]

Originally Posted by patman

Actually...it's both. Two different things. El Niño is related to warmer temps, and La Niña is related to colder.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

It's not both going on right now. We are in the process of a possible El Nino developing.

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by Jeanzb1

"Global Warming" doesn't necessarily mean rising temperatures. It really means "climate change." "Climate warming" is kind of a misnomer. Also, I have read that a La Nina is setting up in the Pacific, which, for us, could signal a cooler and wetter summer than normal.

Ya well Al Gore couldn't prove the weather was warming and some data showed it was cooling so the name was changed to "climate Change," That way no matter what happens it's mans fault.

ToW

[pjard]

Tomorrow is supposed to be 36...that will help!

[WeirsBeachBoater]

Worked in China!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HBpYvONXgM

[Descant]

The good side is that with snow covered ice, milfoil, which grows under the ice if it gets sunlight, will have a slow winter growing season. A couple of years ago, we thought we were making progress in Back Bay, and the warm winter resulted in huge milfoil regrowth.

Other good thoughts?

[Orion]

Originally Posted by WeirsBeachBoater

Worked in China!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HBpYvONXgM

Perfect! How's the fishing afterward?

[WeirsBeachBoater]

Originally Posted by Orion

Perfect! How's the fishing afterward?

Fairly easy, drag a net, and pre cooked. Just needs reheating

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by Tired of Waiting

Ya well Al Gore couldn't prove the weather was warming and some data showed it was cooling so the name was changed to "climate Change," That way no matter what happens it's mans fault.

ToW

You watch. When we stay in the ice age for the next few years, old AL will start calling it "Global Cooling". Although "Climate Change" covers all his bases, so maybe he will stick with this name. He also has some swamp land in Florida he'd like to start selling. What a joke.

[belly_button_biter]

Originally Posted by Tired of Waiting

Ya well Al Gore couldn't prove the weather was warming and some data showed it was cooling so the name was changed to "climate Change," That way no matter what happens it's mans fault.

ToW

The documentary "An inconvenient truth" was filmed in 2004. In the documentary Al Gore stated that the process of global warming would result with colder temperatures about a decade from them. It seems to me that is a more accurate forecast from 10 years ago then the one from last week.

I place concerns for global warming right along side concerns for cancer from cigarette smoke. There are constant warnings ignored by people until the doctor says they have cancer then it's too late to stop

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by belly_button_biter

The documentary "An inconvenient truth" was filmed in 2004. In the documentary Al Gore stated that the process of global warming would result with colder temperatures about a decade from them. It seems to me that is a more accurate forecast from 10 years ago then the one from last week.

Hmm, isn't it funny that not to long after it came out most if not all the assertions the "documentary" made were debunked by scientists. I mean you can choose to believe what ever you want, but Al Gore is only interested in doing one thing, padding his pockets and pushing a political agenda. Want proof, read on here:

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/mo...oreerrors.html

I won't even get into how hypocritical he is considering his own fossil fuel consumption.

Just sayin... as for ice out, I'm still holding out it'll go out before May... but I doubt it. Last weekend it was as if it was mid January out there on the lake. Made for some nice snowmobiling.

[Lakegeezer]

It appears to be an outlier year. The west US had an unusually dry and warm winter while the east US was cold and snowy. No matter when we have iceout, the watershed has not been this frozen on March 26'th, in my 25+ years watching it. Meanwhile, the polar ice cap continues its decline.

The changing climate triggers political debate, because cleaning up from all the anomalies is expensive. New budgets, laws and customs have to change along with the climate. But not everyone is on the same page. In all probability, some inconvenient truths are real, and some not. In some cases, the discussion boils down to science versus beliefs.

One truth is; we have been getting record setting downpours in NH over the last 10 years. Just to be safe, the state changed the design codes for drainage culverts to specify one size larger pipe than previous codes. the hope is that fewer roads will wash out. That's the pragmatic approach that I hope most agree with.

The global issue, with no easy answers is; who pays for third world countries climate woes.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Call me crazy but I trust the data that NASA provides. The fact that anyone would read NASA's take on climate change and still believe ANYTHING that says climate change is not real baffles me.

If you want real information from real scientists read this.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

[brk-lnt]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Call me crazy but I trust the data that NASA provides. The fact that anyone would read NASA's take on climate change and still believe ANYTHING that says climate change is not real baffles me.

If you want real information from real scientists read this.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

I agree with you.

The "world" and the environment is very complex, and it goes through long-range (like multi-century) variations over time. But it doesn't take a lot of knowledge to look at the general state of the environment and realize we're not doing ourselves any favors.

There is also this odd trend of not agreeing with "data" if it can't be sourced back to someone that shares your same political affiliations.

I'm generally not a fan of Al Gore, and I don't consider him a scientist. But I think his overall concern that the environment is changing for the worse is valid and is rooted in real evidence. Like many that seek "fame" over all, I think he probably diluted his own impact by trying to over-reach with his message, but again, that doesn't change the fundamental facts about the environmental trends.

[MAXUM]

I don't think anyone is debating that the climate is changing, it's more a question of why. When one volcanic eruption can spew more greenhouse gasses than has ever been generated by man, it does seem a bit silly to see junk like this portrayed as "real" science when in reality it is selective facts strewn together to formulate a particular conclusion. Sadly everything these days have some sort of ulterior motive behind it instead of having a real study/evaluation of what's going on done in a manner that is free of any particular agenda.

Does this mean that we as humans take reasonable steps to keep our environment and plant as clean as possible? Absolutely. However the lengths to which this has been taken legislatively at our own expense is silly. Brainwashing kids at school with Al Whore's movie is a sign of the times. Thank God there are still private schools out there that still educate versus indoctrinate.

Boy it would be nice if all this extended ice cover and cold weather would rid the lake of milfoil!

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by brk-lnt

I'm generally not a fan of Al Gore, and I don't consider him a scientist. But I think his overall concern that the environment is changing for the worse is valid and is rooted in real evidence. Like many that seek "fame" over all, I think he probably diluted his own impact by trying to over-reach with his message, but again, that doesn't change the fundamental facts about the environmental trends.

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

[brk-lnt]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

IMHO, Al Gore is in it more for the celebrity aspect than for the actual cause. He has taken up climate change as his mantra to try and stay relevant and in the spotlight.

So, yes, he is most likely a hypocrite, however the fact that the messenger is flawed does not mean that the message itself is flawed.

[bilproject]

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out! On the side thread started on global warming, when someone says "It's never been warmer than now" remember dinosaurs roamed the Hudson Bay of Canada before the "last" ice age. There have been many warm and cold cycles in the planets long history. The problem man has is that he thinks he's too important in the planetary scheme.

[jmen24]

Originally Posted by bilproject

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out! On the side thread started on global warming, when someone says "It's never been warmer than now" remember dinosaurs roamed the Hudson Bay of Canada before the "last" ice age. There have been many warm and cold cycles in the planets long history. The problem man has is that he thinks he's too important in the planetary scheme.

Just remember, Ice Out does not mean that all the ice is gone. There has always been areas that still have ice when they declare Ice Out. It only matters for the mount and you will likely have a large portion of the lake to fish with. Get your ticket and your gear ready and have a good time.

Unless of coarse you are located in one of the areas that will still have ice, then well, I don't know what to tell you!

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by bilproject

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out!

I doubt the ice will linger that long, however usually the water temps around mid May are in that 50-60 degree range, that may not be the case this year so the fishing may not be quite as good.

[Jeanzb1]

This will be our second year owning a boat, so I am wondering.....I know that ice-out pertains to The Mount, but, generally speaking, how long should you wait to safely venture out on the lake? I've been told that there are pieces of fallen trees and old docks that can lie just beneath the surface and cause damage to your boat -- and that the debris sinks to the bottom with sunlight and temperature.

[jrc]

I usually like to wait a week or two after ice out for the debris to get blown on shore. I think the biggest danger is hitting tree limbs or other wood pieces floating along.

This year I may have to venture forth without that safety margin. I'll just drive slower and keep a sharp lookout.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Jeanzb1

This will be our second year owning a boat, so I am wondering.....I know that ice-out pertains to The Mount, but, generally speaking, how long should you wait to safely venture out on the lake? I've been told that there are pieces of fallen trees and old docks that can lie just beneath the surface and cause damage to your boat -- and that the debris sinks to the bottom with sunlight and temperature.

Floating debris is one problem, missing/moved/damaged markers is also something to be aware of. The MP does a good job to get out there and fix them but it's usually some time before they can get them all done so you really need to know where you are, or better put where hazards are with or without markers.

[secondcurve]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

Don't forget how he travels around the globe in his private Gulf Stream airplane!! You could paste his ugly face in Webster's dictionary under Hypocrite.

[RLW]

My belief is that once the ice starts going it is going to go real fast with or without Mr. (know it all) Al Gore say so and I personally think it will be gone before May.

[AC2717]

sorry for what I started here

[Oregonrain]

Originally Posted by Jeanzb1

"Global Warming" doesn't necessarily mean rising temperatures. It really means "climate change." "Climate warming" is kind of a misnomer. Also, I have read that a La Nina is setting up in the Pacific, which, for us, could signal a cooler and wetter summer than normal.

I have absolutely nothing to do with La Nina!!

[diz]

Took this an hour ago.

[MAXUM]

I am out here on Bear Island, but it's been warm all day. There is still a good snow pack, but with these temps it's melting off. The lake is pretty much covered in water, makes snowmobiling across more like riding a jet ski. Ice surface is still solid though. Probably my last trip out here till the ice is gone. Sure is nice, have the whole place to myself.

I did notice that openings around the docks are getting larger so it's melting. I'm still thinking ice out may be a little later than usual but I don't see a record ice out.

[MDoug]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

I am out here on Bear Island, but it's been warm all day. There is still a good snow pack, but with these temps it's melting off. The lake is pretty much covered in water, makes snowmobiling across more like riding a jet ski. Ice surface is still solid though. Probably my last trip out here till the ice is gone. Sure is nice, have the whole place to myself.

I did notice that openings around the docks are getting larger so it's melting. I'm still thinking ice out may be a little later than usual but I don't see a record ice out.

Power on? Our camp is in cove behind Shepard Island.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by MDoug

Power on? Our camp is in cove behind Shepard Island.

Yup power is on, lights were flickering a bit last night as the wind picked up but nothing unusual. Looking real wet out there this morning. I'll go take some pics and post them before I leave today.

[MAXUM]

Currently 39 degrees, light wind, no rain.

[ishoot308]

I was out at my place on Welch island yesterday and underneath that 1" or so of rain water on the top, is still over 2 feet of ice!

The shoreline was still solid as a rock around the island and on the main shoreline in Gilford. The Glenadale ramp was still very solid with trucks pulling trailers with bob houses off without issue. Full size SUV's, cars, hovercrafts, ATV's and snowmobiles were out all over the lake yesterday.

Should be some good melting occurring this week, but we have a looooong way to go...

Hang in there!

Dan

[MAXUM]

True, but the way back to shore was a wet one some places the water was 6-7" deep and looking out across the lake it looked more like it was ice out. Pretty crazy!

[CateP]

Wow. These are some of most interesting pictures I've seen of the lake. Thanks for posting everyone.

[Islander2]

Take a look at the last 2 hours toady, of the WiersCAM, the crack developement on the left half of the screen. Looks to be melting rather quickly.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Islander2

Take a look at the last 2 hours toady, of the WiersCAM, the crack developement on the left half of the screen. Looks to be melting rather quickly.

There it is, right on our own WiersCAM. More proof of rapid melting due to global warming!!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by diz

Took this an hour ago.

I took this on the 23rd, from about the same spot. I agree, some pretty good progress!

Nice picture Diz!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Took a ride this morning and was impressed with how much snow melted over night. It was also nice looking across Paugus Bay and seeing the reflection of lights on the lake, even if the reflection was on puddles.
I also noticed the ice formations in my coves were bisected with a small strip of open water.
Progress...

[party.of.five]

Hello all! I don't post here much, but I do read pretty regularly. Thought you'd like to see the view from my webcam (this is the channel between Moultonborough Bay and Green's Basin - near Ambrose) at about 5:00 this afternoon. The opening at the end of the dock is much bigger than it was yesterday and the snow is melting.

There's hope.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Descant]

All together now: Turn on your bubblers....

[CoastalWx]

I may be wrong, but I think a record ice-out is unlikely at this time. Nothing really points to an unusually cold April at this time, although that could change as arctic air will be just over the border. The pattern in the long range will try to flex a SE US ridge which may mean warmer wx and rain after mid month.

As far as climate change goes, leave it out of the thread. Some of you are misinformed.

[John A. Birdsall]

For most of 91 years my father was looking for Ice Out on his birthday, today would have been 92, and Ice Out has never happened on 9 April, before yup, after yup, but not on the 9th I surely hope that Ice Out will happen before my birthday 30 Sept. However if it doesn't perhaps it will start freezing again before it thaws out. Time to sharpen the keel of the pontoon boat to make it ride like ice skates.

[Merrymeeting]

John, my son was born on April 8th. It was a difficult birth. He's now a very buff 24 yr old, who loves the lakes region. That is ALWAYS my ice-out guess. Some day maybe...

[phoenix]

john maybe by your birthday we will start the ice in contest