A storm for February 1 ?

[CanisLupusArctos]

After a brief warmup in the early part of this week, cold air from Canada will make a return on Thursday. At the same time, the models are showing a storm originating in the Gulf of Mexico tracking up the east coast.

As with any storm that takes this track there is a lot of uncertainty and if its northeasterly track deviates just a few miles to the NW or SE it would make a lot of difference as to who gets what kind of precipitation and how much.

If this storm starts to come together we will have to answer the question of its track, as well as how much the arriving cold air will affect it. With a powerful surge of Gulf warmth and moisture coming up, it's easy to think it could track inland and thus be a rain event for at least the eastern half of New England, but the cold air will be working against that motion and could easily push the whole thing far enough east to make it mostly snow.

Time will tell...

[tpabrad]

Hey Ive been lurking for a while because I'll be making a trip up to the lake from Florida mid next week. Have been intently watching the weather. Im praying this is snow!!

Here I thought our weather was funky!

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

After a brief warmup in the early part of this week, cold air from Canada will make a return on Thursday. At the same time, the models are showing a storm originating in the Gulf of Mexico tracking up the east coast.

As with any storm that takes this track there is a lot of uncertainty and if its northeasterly track deviates just a few miles to the NW or SE it would make a lot of difference as to who gets what kind of precipitation and how much.

If this storm starts to come together we will have to answer the question of its track, as well as how much the arriving cold air will affect it. With a powerful surge of Gulf warmth and moisture coming up, it's easy to think it could track inland and thus be a rain event for at least the eastern half of New England, but the cold air will be working against that motion and could easily push the whole thing far enough east to make it mostly snow.

Time will tell...

It doesn't look like much snow from that one, CLA, but the pipeline is loaded after that for the first two weeks of February. (I know, I know, the long range is very fickle but it's all I've got!)

BT

[jogator1]

tpabrad, what part of Florida are you coming from? We have a group 7 heading up next week for skiing, snowmobiling, and of course the ice fishing derby. We're coming from Boca and Boynton Beach.

[tpabrad]

Im in Tampa!

[Resident 2B]

It is a safe bet that the Lakes Region will see a storm on Feb 1, as noted by CLA when he started this thread. The toughest call is P-Type for our area.

From what I am thinking, the upper level support will be well west of the surface low and the surface low will be a coast hugger. This will bring the available warm, moist air into the upper levels very early in the storm resulting in snow at the outset quickly changing over to rain. It looks more wet than white all the way to the mountains.

I realize the NWS is forecasting snow, and they may be correct, but at this time, I am in the snow to rain camp, with most of the precipitation falling as rain in the Laconia area.

I really hope that I am wrong. It is supposed to snow this time of the year.

R2B

[HomeWood]

I hope the NWS is right. I'll be up there on Saturday and I don't feel like playing in slush. Does it ever rain in the souther part of the lake and snow in the northern part at the same time (ie. Moultonborough where I'll be) ?

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by HomeWood

I hope the NWS is right. I'll be up there on Saturday and I don't feel like playing in slush. Does it ever rain in the souther part of the lake and snow in the northern part at the same time (ie. Moultonborough where I'll be) ?

Yes, it does. Though it seems like a 'local' area, Alton is still a good 20+ miles SE of Moultonborough. In New England that is a long (meteorological) distance. In Boston, for example, there is often rain falling while at the same time there is accumulating snow 20 miles north of Boston.

This lake also has worked to the snow lovers' disadvantage in Moultonborough when:

a) A snowstorm on the coast produces a strong east/southeast wind... and the lake acts as a runway to bring the warmer coastal air farther inland than it would otherwise go. In such cases I've seen mix/changeover at Black Cat even while Laconia, Tilton, etc were still getting snow.

b) as we discovered with the storm on the 14th of this month, when the storm produces a Northerly wind. The Ossipees will cast a shadow over the snow amounts here.

There are also plenty of times when I've noticed snow, even when it wasn't on the radar or in the forecast. That's what I love about the weather around here, it's so hard to figure out!

Re. Friday... I'm torn between R2B and the NWS. Common sense is telling me R2B is right, but I think I know what the NWS is thinking, which is also plausible: Canada is extremely cold right now, cold enough to make tonight's newscast. That cold air is trying to inch its way towards us, and if it becomes aggressive enough, it could push the whole mess farther east. The only question is... will it? Our current pattern says no. But patterns can and do change.Decisions, decisions.

TONIGHT: There is a freezing rain advisory. That means "Not an all-out ice storm, but enough to keep the area's road-rescue crews busy if drivers don't realize the 'wet' road is actually iced-over.

[Resident 2B]

I am getting more concerned about the possibility of a moderate ice storm Friday night. It should be warm aloft and it is likely to be cold near the surface. That usually means ice.

I have been thinking rain, but if the cold air gets in on Thursday night, as it is looking like it will, when the warm, moist flow gets established in the upper levels, the rain could freeze on the way down, meaning sleet, followed by ice when the cold air layer near the surface gets scrubed and thinned out.

As always, there is still time for a change to this, but I am getting more convinced that it is not going to be snow on Friday night. The upper level low will be west of us and the surface low looks to be over us or slightly east of us. That should produce ice or rain, for the most part for the lakes.

I will update this in the morning when we have more data from the models.

R2B

[tpabrad]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I am getting more concerned about the possibility of a moderate ice storm Friday night. It should be warm aloft and it is likely to be cold near the surface. That usually means ice.

I have been thinking rain, but if the cold air gets in on Thursday night, as it is looking like it will, when the warm, moist flow gets established in the upper levels, the rain could freeze on the way down, meaning sleet, followed by ice when the cold air layer near the surface gets scrubed and thinned out.

As always, there is still time for a change to this, but I am getting more convinced that it is not going to be snow on Friday night. The upper level low will be west of us and the surface low looks to be over us or slightly east of us. That should produce ice or rain, for the most part for the lakes.

I will update this in the morning when we have more data from the models.

R2B

Bummer! I come in a week from tomorrow night, hope things improve by then, although the 10 day doesnt look any better!

Im pretty good with the weather down here, but havent a clue about it up there. Especially after reading everything you guys have written in the past. Does seem to be a big challenge to forecast up there!

[BoulderBronco]

Originally Posted by tpabrad

Bummer! I come in a week from tomorrow night, hope things improve by then, although the 10 day doesnt look any better!

Same here. I am getting in next Thursday night. Looks like after this ice storm passes it will be colder but not super cold. But it does look like it will be cold enough on the average to continue producing ice. Maybe only 1/4-1/2" per night but it's better than melting. What do you weather experts think about ice forming over the next week?

[Resident 2B]

Even if it does not snow Friday, there is snow on the ground.

As far as the ice on the lake, it will continue to build at a good rate for the next two weeks, and likely longer. Temps will be at or below normal for the foreseeable future.

R2B

[BoulderBronco]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Even if it does not snow Friday, there is snow on the ground.

As far as the ice on the lake, it will continue to build at a good rate for the next two weeks, and likely longer. Temps will be at or below normal for the foreseeable future.

R2B

Thats what I like to hear. Snow will come eventually, it's the solid Ice I want. It's been years since I felt safe driving a truck down Meredith bay. I remember years as a kid where we had well over 20" of ice. Bring on the cold.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Temps will be at or below normal for the foreseeable future.

R2B

NCEP says otherwise...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...10temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...14temp.new.gif

Sorry R2B, just trying to have some fun with ya!!

Blue Thunder

[Resident 2B]

Although I think the folks at NOAA do a good job, I do not always agree with their 10 and 14 day NOAA forecasts. They are too broad in geographic area. I do not think they are right with their much above normal temp forecast for the next 10 and 14 day periods for the lakes region.

Although this weekend might be a bit above normal, along with next Tuesday, the rest of the next two weeks will be below normal. It will be rather cold, not extremely cold, for about a week starting next Wednesday evening with temps 5 to 10 degreess below normal for that period of time.

That is what I think and I will be the first to say that I am not always right.

Time will tell!

R2B

[Blue Thunder]

I don't have to worry about being right. That's what I have you guys for!!
Seriously, I'm just trying to have fun with the weather, no ill will intended.

BT

[Resident 2B]

BT,

I took it as fun, and I believe this whole section/thread is a lot of fun. No need at all to explain. I realize this is not the Speed Limits thread.

Enjoy whatever weather we get!

R2B

[tpabrad]

Although this weekend might be a bit above normal, along with next Tuesday, the rest of the next two weeks will be below normal. It will be rather cold, not extremely cold, for about a week starting next Wednesday evening with temps 5 to 10 degreess below normal for that period of time.

This will be perfect! Just need to throw some snow in that mix and I will be a happy camper visiting

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by HomeWood

Does it ever rain in the souther part of the lake and snow in the northern part at the same time (ie. Moultonborough where I'll be) ?

Funny you should say that! I have to quote you again because there is now a winter storm watch in effect for southern Carroll County (Moultonborough-Wolfeborough) while no watches or warnings are in effect for Belknap County (Center Harbor - Alton). NWS, in all their 'government wisdom' has the watch area pegged for 4-8" snow while only 1-2" is predicted just over the county line. Granted, this sort of thing *has* come true in the past, but I'm going to state it more generally: The White Mountains and their foothills (i.e. Squams and Ossipees) will hold on to the snow and ice longer than places farther to the south and east.

There are some local topography issues to consider with this situation:

1) The mountain summits may get less snow than the bases, because we're looking at warm air moving in aloft and working its way down to the surface. This also means that the mountain and river valleys stand the greatest chance of damaging ice, especially if the cold air becomes geographically trapped in those valleys. During many ice storms, the Mount Washington Observatory gets rain with temps in the 40s while the lower half of the Auto Road gets covered in ice, with temps in the upper 20s.

2) The lake is a valley itself. It's currently a 72-square-mile ice cube. This could cause the shoreline (i.e. within 500' of the water and all islands) to hold on to the cold air for much longer than the general area, and get as much sleet/freezing rain as any of the mountain valleys.

3) The mountains on the northern shore of the lake appear to be the major dividing line for this storm. That means we're right on the fence (again) and the slightest change in any aspect of this storm would have a noticeable effect on us.

[HomeWood]

Weather can do some crazy things! I'll be up saturday. Weather.com has some rain/snow/ice mixes next week . What's your opinion on that?

[BoulderBronco]

I don't know guys but I don't see any more ice being made over the next week. Highs in the upper 30's and even some in the low 40's! The lows only in the mid to upper 20's and low 30's. I am no expert but that tells me the mean temp is well above freezing for the next week.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by BoulderBronco

I don't know guys but I don't see any more ice being made over the next week. Highs in the upper 30's and even some in the low 40's! The lows only in the mid to upper 20's and low 30's. I am no expert but that tells me the mean temp is well above freezing for the next week.

Good read BoulderBronco.

I think I had a good read on tomorrow's weather, made a few days ago, with mostly rain after a start of snow. There will be a fair amount of ice in the middle, with a little snow at the end.

I had expected the big, cold air pool north and west of us to work its way eastward and bring the temps below normal from next Wednesday onward. This was against the long range forecast of NOAA.

Right now, I do not think that will happen. As I said in other posts, I am not right all the time and I am clearly wrong with the timing this time. The issue is the timing of the start of the colder than normal temps.

It looks like we will be in a generally warm flow from the south for the next week or so and the temps will be above normal until at least next Friday. Sorry about that folks!

As far as the ice on the lake is concerned, the ice will likely stay more or less as it is for the next week. The normal average temp for the lakes region, high + low divided by 2, is 21 degrees at this time of the year. Our temps look like they will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, on average, for the next week. This is still below freezing on average.

Although we may not gain ice, we should not lose ice either. After next Friday, I believe we will get cold. The temps for the derby weekend look like 5to 10 degrees below normal, maybe below zero at night. This cold wave might last a week or more.

We might have one or two more mixed precipation events next week. Nothing big at this time.

Be safe out there. The ice has a lot of variability due to the snow cover. What might look solid may not be solid!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

I'm inclined to go with more in the form of liquid for this storm, except I'm wondering about this barometric pressure. Right now it stands at 30.66" or about as high as it ever gets, and still rising. In the past, pressures like this within 12 hours of a predicted snow-to-rain event have almost always resulted in more frozen precip than indicated by the models. In this case I'd favor more freezing rain than snow, but I think it'll have a bit of a hard time going over to plain rain, at least at the NW end of the lake and foothills of the Whites. Alton southward will likely be more wet.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Good read BoulderBronco.

We might have one or two more mixed precipation events next week. Nothing big at this time.


R2B

Oh sure...give him all the credit!

Have you looked at the GFS and the Euro for the Feb 9th?

BT

[chipj29]

Consensus among the Mets that I read is that it will be above normal temperature wise until mid-Feb. A slight cooldown through the end of Feb (normal temps?) then a cooler than normal March/April.

This is not my predicition (I know better than to predict anything), just what I have been reading. We shall see...

[CanisLupusArctos]

The winter storm watch for the lakes region has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.

Radar indicates light snow has overspread the lakes region but I don't see any out the window just yet. Within an hour or two it should start reaching the ground.

The pressure remains high at 30.61 and is only now beginning to fall slowly. At the same time the temperatures are still in the low 20s. This cold air combined with high pressure (very heavy air mass) should make it difficult for the warm air to reach the surface today, and as a result I think we'll see a fair amount of icing. The National Weather Service is currently predicting between 1/4 and 1/2-inch of ice which I think is a reasonable estimate. It is more than we've had in at least a couple of years.

The text of the winter storm warning states that wind of 35 mph at times will combine with the ice accumulation to down tree limbs. At Black Cat it is already gusting to 39 mph and is increasing.

Since this is a Friday night there is a lot of potential traffic that may head for the lakes region from points south (where the storm will be mostly rain). This year's snowstorms on peak travel days have resulted in highway closures from the volume of simultaneous accidents, and therefore I think a repeat performance is possible tonight. It's been at least a couple years since we've driven in a decent ice storm.

[hilltopper]

Hey folks. Is it snowing up there yet? Trying to time my departure from Nashua (to Meredith). It's not doing anything at the moment in Nashua....

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Hey folks. Is it snowing up there yet? Trying to time my departure from Nashua (to Meredith). It's not doing anything at the moment in Nashua....

Nothing yet in Laconia. The dry air is eating the snow on the way down. It is gone before it would get to the ground.

R2B

[hilltopper]

Thanks! It just started in Nashua. At the moment it looks like a 90% freezing rain / 10% snow mix. Time to head out........