Go Back   Winnipesaukee Forum > Winnipesaukee Forums > Weather
Home Forums Gallery Webcams Blogs YouTube Channel Classifieds Calendar Register FAQDonate Members List Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-06-2008, 10:41 AM   #1
Resident 2B
Senior Member
 
Resident 2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Shore, MA
Posts: 1,356
Thanks: 991
Thanked 311 Times in 162 Posts
Default Aug 2008: Lake level and rain

I just checked the dock this morning and based upon my very-unofficial marker, as of 11:00 this morning, we are at or slightly above full lake.

Quickly looking at the historical data from the Dam Bureau, we are likely to have the highest lake level for this time of year since 1982 with all the rain we are getting. I realize that we need rain to live, but this is getting to be too much.

Any tropical system that brings rain in the next five weeks will likely cause floods. I am not saying we will have a visit from a tropical system, but it is that time of the year and the lake now is full and it keeps raining.

Got to get back to work on the new ark!

R2B
Resident 2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2008, 10:47 AM   #2
chipj29
Senior Member
 
chipj29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Bow
Posts: 1,874
Thanks: 521
Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts
Default

Many area rivers are running quite high. Not at flood stage, but some are close. Take a look at the Swift River along the Kanc. The usual rocks are all almost under water!
__________________
Getting ready for winter!
chipj29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 08:12 AM   #3
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Resident 2B View Post
I just checked the dock this morning and based upon my very-unofficial marker, as of 11:00 this morning, we are at or slightly above full lake.

Quickly looking at the historical data from the Dam Bureau, we are likely to have the highest lake level for this time of year since 1982 with all the rain we are getting. I realize that we need rain to live, but this is getting to be too much.

Any tropical system that brings rain in the next five weeks will likely cause floods. I am not saying we will have a visit from a tropical system, but it is that time of the year and the lake now is full and it keeps raining.

Got to get back to work on the new ark!

R2B

I noticed the same thing this morning. When Black Cat Shoals has just one tiny little rock sticking up (barely visible in the WeatherCam) the lake level is, as you say, at or slightly above full. Yesterday's sustained southeast winds at 30 mph (gust to 42 mph) brought large waves up the length of the lake and over the tops of the docks on the south side of the island.

Between 10 pm Monday and noon yesterday we had 1.65 inches of rain. This brings the total for the first six days of August to 2.25 inches. As R2B mentioned, this is the time of year when we normally need to think about tropical systems. To that I will add: We don't need an actual named storm to cause flood problems here; the remnants of a former tropical system are much more common around here, and usually drop a lot of rainfall.

In the meantime, the threat from regular showers and thunderstorms remains, due to the clash of the cold and warm air masses that has been happening here all summer. I had thought (hoped) that summer's air would've won the match and taken hold to give us at least a couple of hot/dry weeks by now, but as Labor Day approaches, it becomes more and more likely that our next sustained stretch of dry weather will come when the the cold air eventually wins -- autumn.

No need to spend your vacation in worry; just have a "ready" mentality.

ps I found several red leaves on the ground yesterday. Enough for a handful. There were a few more on the otherwise-green tree above them.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 11:13 AM   #4
JTA
Senior Member
 
JTA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Fort Pierce, Florida
Posts: 233
Thanks: 33
Thanked 25 Times in 21 Posts
Default

It was probably a tupelo tree. The first sign of summer coming to an end soon.
JTA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 01:39 PM   #5
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Heavy T-Storms This Afternoon

Severe weather is once again possible this afternoon. The sun has destabilized the air. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #813 is in effect for the SW portion of the state but radar shows thunderstorms with heavy rain covering much of Vermont and moving east. Activity extends west through NY state and into southern Canada from there. Rainy times are ahead.

According to my "lake gauge" the lake is at full. The gauge is a large rock with a marking I made during calm conditions when the lake was at 504.32 (full.)
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Old 08-07-2008, 05:12 PM   #6
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Flood Warning

There is now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, a flood warning and a flash flood warning in effect for the northwestern end of the lakes region. Severe Thunderstorm Warning is because radar indicates large hail and winds in excess of 60 mph within approaching storms over Meredith headed east. Flood warning means flooding is either occurring or will be occurring shortly. Flash flooding is a rapid type of flooding that can turn dry roads into impassable roads within minutes. NWS radar shows a line of thunderstorms forming an eastward-moving train from the Lebanon area to the lakes region.

Black Cat Island Wx has received 0.33" of rain this afternoon and more is likely this evening. This is in addition to the previously-mentioned rain.

Here is the NWS warning text:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NHC001-003-072315-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SV.W.0181.080807T2218Z-080807T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
618 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BELKNAP COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MEREDITH...AND MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MEREDITH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
548 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NHC001-003-080045-
/O.NEW.KGYX.FA.W.0011.080807T2148Z-080808T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
548 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BELKNAP COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 547 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS
DUMPING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF GRAFTON COUNTY.

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED HIGH WATER AND SATURATED
GROUND OVER PARTS OF BELKNAP AND CARROLL COUNTIES OVER RECENT DAYS
SO THE AREA IS PRONE TO FLOODING. ALREADY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR AND ANOTHER INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 845 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

-------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BELKNAP COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...
SOUTHERN GRAFTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN
ARE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GRAFTON AND NORTHWEST BELKNAP
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAAN...CARDIGAN MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...GROTON...MEREDITH...
HOLDERNESS AND ASHLAND.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE RAPID.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 05:34 PM   #7
Lin
Senior Member
 
Lin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Massachusetts & Moultonborough
Posts: 673
Thanks: 41
Thanked 15 Times in 11 Posts
Default

Our police/fire scanner is going crazy, not just down where we live in MA where we had an earlier tornado warning, but the lakes region radio is alive with trees down and major flooding events. I hear at Ames Campground they said cars and people in the water and flooding at Jellystone and near Hawkins Pond. Sounds pretty serious. My brotherinlaw and family returned from camping at the White Mountains today due to the rain and the river floodings. Take care everyone up there especially driving near flooded areas, and please keep the kids away from the culverts and rivers.
__________________
Lin
Lin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 06:23 PM   #8
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Trees and washouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lin View Post
Our police/fire scanner is going crazy, not just down where we live in MA where we had an earlier tornado warning, but the lakes region radio is alive with trees down and major flooding events. I hear at Ames Campground they said cars and people in the water and flooding at Jellystone and near Hawkins Pond. Sounds pretty serious. My brotherinlaw and family returned from camping at the White Mountains today due to the rain and the river floodings. Take care everyone up there especially driving near flooded areas, and please keep the kids away from the culverts and rivers.
Thank you Lin for mentioning the trees. With the ground saturated and many trees pre-stressed by the many high wind events of this summer, it won't take as much wind to bring them down anymore. They will uproot easily in wet soil, and many will break readily if they have already experienced high wind recently. There have been reports of trees down/across wires even on nice days, most likely due to damage the tree had taken on a stormy day without falling at that time.

Also there have been many road washouts in northwestern NH as you mentioned, and more will probably occur. In Maine they are now discouraging people from getting on the rivers because the water level is very high and flow is becoming fast.

Black Cat Is. Wx has just reached the 1-inch rainfall total for the day, all of which has fallen since 5 pm. This brings the total for the first seven days of August to 3.25 inches. The normal monthly total at Concord Airport is 3.32 inches. We will reach and surpass that, within the next hour.

The lightning at the lake has been nonstop since about 530 pm. Very frequent cloud-to-ground, sometimes three or four at a time, over different places. The sky is alive with electricity, mostly to the south of here but not far. Bear Island has been hit several times, and I saw one hit Three Mile.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 06:27 PM   #9
Lin
Senior Member
 
Lin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Massachusetts & Moultonborough
Posts: 673
Thanks: 41
Thanked 15 Times in 11 Posts
Default

CLA, apparently there have been a lot of lightening strikes according to the region. I hear a lot of towns going to a heavy fire in a shed a Petal Pushers in Laconia Parade Road. Also have heard a lot of rescues from swollen streams and stranded motorists in the roads or parking lots and a lost kid on Mt. Major which they just located as I write this. Sounds wicked crazy up there right now. Also heard that they called in more dispatchers for lakes region fire dispatch. Definitely worth listening to. Hear is the link to WMUR already on the flooding calls http://www.wmur.com/weather/17124596/detail.html# with a photo from their cam of Meridith near the bayside Inn
__________________
Lin
Lin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 07:02 PM   #10
phoenix
Senior Member
 
phoenix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: phoenix and moultonboro
Posts: 1,528
Thanks: 59
Thanked 269 Times in 189 Posts
Default

most of moultonboro just had a 3-4 hour power outage due to a down tree on rt25. most restaurants ended up closing including our attempt to go to the woodshed
__________________
it's tough to make predictions specially about the future
phoenix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 07:09 PM   #11
Lin
Senior Member
 
Lin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Massachusetts & Moultonborough
Posts: 673
Thanks: 41
Thanked 15 Times in 11 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by phoenix View Post
most of moultonboro just had a 3-4 hour power outage due to a down tree on rt25. most restaurants ended up closing including our attempt to go to the woodshed

We've been listening to http://www.lrmfa.org/gateway.htm and the firetrucks are even having a hard time finding ways to and from calls because of all the flooding and washed out roads around Laconia, Meredith and other towns. Sounds like phenominal rains with more to come looking at the radar.
__________________
Lin
Lin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 07:27 PM   #12
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Backlogged calls

I would imagine the fire departments have backlogged calls now. According to the National Weather Service, Rt. 3, Parade Road, and Pease Road in Laconia have all been closed as of an hour ago. Cars are reported washed away.

In addition to all this water, the cloud-ground lightning has only now just let up after an amazing continuous three-hour zapping of this area. I would imagine there has been a lot of lightning damage around the lakes region today.

Now at Black Cat Wx, 1.76 inches of rain since 5 pm with heavy rain falling. There is a frog swimming in the basement. Ribbit.

Last edited by CanisLupusArctos; 08-07-2008 at 09:06 PM.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 09:03 PM   #13
Scott
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 150
Thanks: 0
Thanked 68 Times in 19 Posts
Thumbs up

My god what an awesome storm!!

I have some pretty creepy video showing strong rotation that passed directly overhead that nearly sent me running. If it wasn't for radar I would have had no clue as to what direction the storm was actually moving.

Also have some video of some flooding near the Naswa- a place I've never seen flood in the 23 years I've lived here.

I'm trying to figure out how to share this stuff. Youtube lowers the quality to worthless and the files are a rather large 38MB each. Too big to attach here and too big of a drain on my hosting account if even a moderate number of people view them.
Scott is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 09:07 PM   #14
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Fatality

Just called in to the NWS with my rain total of 1.91" for the evening (it's over now.) The guy told me there has been a flooding fatality in Ashland tonight as a family tried to leave a campground their car was swept away by a flash flood of a stream. All but their little girl were rescued.

Scott, I've believe it (rotation.) Judging by the amount of lightning this thing had, I would surmise that it had a great deal of turbulence. This was some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen. At several points during the storm I saw lightning hit Bear Island in 2 places, Weirs Beach, and Meredith Neck in 2 or 3 places all within a split second of each other. And that sort of behavior kept happening. I think Bear Is. got hit at least 10 time tonight... Black Cat once... Three Mile, once or twice... Meredith Neck, a million times... All told, it was constant lightning and constant thunder for three hours. The silence now is noticeable.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 09:15 PM   #15
Resident 2B
Senior Member
 
Resident 2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Shore, MA
Posts: 1,356
Thanks: 991
Thanked 311 Times in 162 Posts
Default

Tonight's weather was much more than I ever expceted, tonight.

Good luck and best wishes to all the were negatively impacted.

I love weather, but I hate to see good people negatively impacted by weather.

R2B
Resident 2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 09:29 PM   #16
Scott
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 150
Thanks: 0
Thanked 68 Times in 19 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
Scott, I've believe it (rotation.) Judging by the amount of lightning this thing had, I would surmise that it had a great deal of turbulence. This was some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen. At several points during the storm I saw lightning hit Bear Island in 2 places, Weirs Beach, and Meredith Neck in 2 or 3 places all within a split second of each other. And that sort of behavior kept happening. I think Bear Is. got hit at least 10 time tonight... Black Cat once... Three Mile, once or twice... Meredith Neck, a million times... All told, it was constant lightning and constant thunder for three hours. The silence now is noticeable.
Yes.. the lightning was amazing. I wish the storm had come at night so I could have tried snapping some lightning photos.

3.28" of rain over here according to my station. Never had that much rain so fast before. As bad as it was, hard to believe places just to the west got almost twice that amount. That storm sat over there for a quite a while before sliding east.

Radar estimated precipitation map is attached. Sometimes they are fairly inaccurate but for this storm it appears dead-on.
Attached Images
 
Scott is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 09:33 PM   #17
jetskier
Senior Member
 
jetskier's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Reading, MA and South Down Shores
Posts: 850
Thanks: 57
Thanked 183 Times in 114 Posts
Default Road Washouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott View Post
Yes.. the lightning was amazing. I wish the storm had come at night so I could have tried snapping some lightning photos.

3.28" of rain over here according to my station. Never had that much rain so fast before. As bad as it was, hard to believe places just to the west got almost twice that amount. That storm sat over there for a quite a while before sliding east.

Radar estimated precipitation map is attached. Sometimes they are fairly inaccurate but for this storm it appears dead-on.
We just came up from MA and there are a number of road washouts. We missed the weather, but the after effect is pretty spectacular. There is a washout on route 106 just south of the prison. Within South Down there is a washout on Outerbridge Road (passible) and Davidson (by the pond).

Jetskier
jetskier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2008, 10:24 PM   #18
CanisLupusArctos
Senior Member
 
CanisLupusArctos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
Default Watch WMUR

Channel 9 has reported many more washouts than I thought existed. They are doing a special report tonight on it. At one point Laconia officials had told them all major roads in and out of Laconia were closed... now it is down to "most."

WMUR is also reporting that the Weirs Beach Boardwalk, adjacent road, and adjacent railroad tracks have all washed out, at the docks. The railroad tracks have also been washed out in Meredith at Winona Road (WMUR had video of the tracks suspended in mid-air with all the earth underneath them missing.)

There are many more roads on WMUR's list of closures tonight.

The storms have dried up. We'll see them again with daytime heating tomorrow.

A flash flood watch has been issued for most of the state including the lakes region for tomorrow as a result. There is nowhere for any more rain to go. A general (areal) flood watch has been issued for the seacoast.
CanisLupusArctos is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

This page was generated in 0.41772 seconds