Real Estate Slump

onthebay · 10-30-2006, 12:05 PM

Does anybody have any views good or bad regarding the real estate market on the lake? Any success stories or strategys to employ for selling.

We are getting close to finishing building our house on the lake and was hoping to have our townhouse sold (also on the lake) to help cover some of the cost.
It has been on the market since July and no takers. There are about 5 units in our complex for sale and the prices all have just dropped about 10% from where they started in the summer. Once one drops they all drop to keep up. Still there hasn't been any sold.
My view is that everyone is just waiting for the bottom to drop out so they can come in and cherrypick the bargains.
I will be selling my Mass house in the spring to move up to the lake full time. I hope things turn around and don't get as bad as the last big real estate "correction" in the 80's.

donnamatrix · 10-30-2006, 12:37 PM

It took us 8 months to sell our condo at Southdown. Finally sold it in June of 2005. We bought a house in Moultonboro. In speaking with any of the local real estate agents, I think they would all concur there is a slump going on, except in the very high end markets. Reading the MA and NY papers, it looks like the downturn will be fueling the "buyer's" market for some time to come. Sellers are paying condo fees and almost anything to entice buyers. Good luck!!

Dave R · 10-30-2006, 01:54 PM

Interesting article about the what's going on in the US real estate market. Kind of depressing.

jrc · 10-30-2006, 04:04 PM

If you don't have to sell, wait. The next year will be tough. A lot of people who were just selling because the market was so inflated will just decide to stay. But, the people who have to sell for a variety of reasons will take the worst of it.

If you follow the real estate prices in MLS you'll see a lot of people still haven't realized that the trend has turned. I've seen side-by-side pretty much identical properties where one is 40% lower. Worse yet, neither is selling.

But remember the secret to success is buy low, sell high. Buying low is the hard part, it's tough to get in a market while everyone is running away.

boat_guy64 · 10-31-2006, 11:15 AM

Interesting.....I've been trying to buy a condo for the past nine months but I am finding most sellers are still asking for July 2005 prices. Even though realtors acknowledge the 10% decrease in prices, most sellers haven't come to that realization. I've seen condos that have had a 300% appreciation over the past ten years but the sellers aren't willing to consider an offer 10% below the "peak" prices. Seems like a big stalemate is in progress.

donnamatrix · 10-31-2006, 11:40 AM

I agree. The prices do not reflect the true value of the property, they have been inflated by the realtors and the sellers. And, of course, once you list a property at a high price, it's hard to lower the price considerably without making it look like something is wrong to any potential buyers.

Lakegeezer · 10-31-2006, 04:28 PM

As we get our December tax bills, we see the inflated price that the town's outsourced assessors claim as 100% of value and have to wonder, "well, maybe it is worth that much".

secondcurve · 10-31-2006, 07:56 PM

I don't think that prices will fall much until the next recession hits. When it hits, watch out below. It could be six months, a year or three years. Unfortunately, it will happen sooner or later since we are overdue.

LIforrelaxin · 11-01-2006, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boat_guy64

Interesting.....I've been trying to buy a condo for the past nine months but I am finding most sellers are still asking for July 2005 prices. Even though realtors acknowledge the 10% decrease in prices, most sellers haven't come to that realization. I've seen condos that have had a 300% appreciation over the past ten years but the sellers aren't willing to consider an offer 10% below the "peak" prices. Seems like a big stalemate is in progress.

I think one Key here is that the sellers "aren't willing" to come down in prices becuase most of them have no need to. They want to sell there places if the right offer comes along and they can make a chunk of change, and maybe up grade, but if not they will keep on enjoying. My quess would be the last place we will see property prices correct themselves is up around the lake.

rander7823 · 11-01-2006, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onthebay

It has been on the market since July and no takers. There are about 5 units in our complex for sale and the prices all have just dropped about 10% from where they started in the summer. Once one drops they all drop to keep up. Still there hasn't been any sold.

Do you have a link to your listing?

onthebay · 11-01-2006, 02:45 PM

The MLS #2603252 is listed on www.nhwaterfront.com. The price has been reduced to 207K but has not made it to MLS yet.

jerseyonbear · 11-01-2006, 03:22 PM

Something is wrong with this picture. Agents are the ones who sell homes. The more exposure the better for the seller and MLS is most important. Are you working with a cut rate broker? Keep in mind all agents are paid by commission. Good Luck

Water Camper · 11-01-2006, 03:35 PM

I do believe the listing agent must be a paying member to list on MLS. They need more than just a Realtors license.

I do agree that having your property listed on MLS is most important, especially with the current market.

Bill

onthebay · 11-01-2006, 04:03 PM

The realtors website is www.nhwaterfront.com. The price change hasn't made it to MLS yet. It has been on the market including being listed with MLS since July.

jrc · 11-01-2006, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin

I think one Key here is that the sellers "aren't willing" to come down in prices becuase most of them have no need to. They want to sell there places if the right offer comes along and they can make a chunk of change, and maybe up grade, but if not they will keep on enjoying. My quess would be the last place we will see property prices correct themselves is up around the lake.

A lot of people bought property during the boom times as investments. As soon as an investor realizes that their real estate is depreciating or not appreciating fast enough, he will dump it. That forces the market to spiral down. It might take a little longer to get to here but it's coming. Probably not as bad as the 80's.

4Fun · 11-06-2006, 10:36 AM

I for one am happy prices are dropping. Now maybe, just maybe, we wil be able to afford something on the water. We missed the deals in the early 90s but will not miss them this time. We have still noticed the prices are still overpriced. Lots of people still holding on to the 05 prices. Looking forward to the dead of winter 07 prices

Paugus Bay Resident · 11-06-2006, 11:21 AM

onthebay, I think in your case, its simply a matter of supply. A quick check in MLS showed 25 condos (in Laconia) in the $200 - $225K price range. Overall, Belknap county sales for this year are off 15 - 20% from last year. To keep things in perspective however, last year was a very good year.

KonaChick · 11-06-2006, 02:38 PM

I guess it depends on where you live on lake and what type of property you are looking to buy/sell...but I don't see any real estate slow down in our neck of the woods (Kona area). I would say the turnover in the immediate coves that surround us has been about 35% over the past 6 years with nothing from tear downs to McMansions staying on the market for more than a few months. The only thing I have noticed is that prices are slightly lower than they were during the internet bubble. We have a certain real estate agent who is always bugging us to list with him...saying he has many clients who specifically want the Kona area and will not buy anywhere else on lake. This could be a sales ploy though to get you to list with him. Anyway I just don't see it in our area of the lake. Have a good one

TomC · 11-06-2006, 07:22 PM

There is a certain theory in the market that baby boomers, as they retire, will continue to drive demand for properties in "recreational" areas, ie along golf courses, bodies of water, ski areas, etc. They have the money and the idea is that they will dispose of their conventional suburban residences and acquire resort properties, thus supporting the prices of this more rare type of property. If this is indeed the case we may not see much erosion of lakefront properties as this is obviously in shorter supply than a generic house in a generic neighborhood...

what do you think?

Resident 2B · 11-06-2006, 08:34 PM

Tom C,

Sounds good to me.

I believe there is some reality to what you have proposed. However, on the flip side, when economies go down, the second home is one of the first things to go.

If the economy stays strong, I believe the baby boomers will have some positive impact on real estate prices in the region in the next five or more years.

It is also believed that these boomers will be looking for warmer climates, but not hot climates. We lose on that variable.

It is all one big balancing act between so many factors. I do not think it will be as bad as the last drawback, but time will tell. Long-term, lakes region property should be a good place to put your money, as long as you can cover most of the purchase cost without going to the bank. If you have a 80% mortgage at 6% interest and you are also paying high property taxes, the property would have to go up 10% each year for you to make anything. The high property taxes are a negative factor in the market when you try to sell.

That said, there are very few, if any, more beatiful places on the planet than the area around our lake. That is why we bought here and intend to stay here.

Good luck!

R2B

onthebay · 11-06-2006, 09:38 PM

I guess it all depends on timing. If we had been able to build the new house last winter instead of this spring we would have been ready to sell the condo when things were still moving. The idea was to move everything over when the house was finished and then sell the condo.
It looks like we will try to rent it out for a year or so and see where the markets goes.
On the bright side by renting it will then become eligible for a 1031 exchange when its time to buy the condo down south.

GWC... · 11-12-2006, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4Fun

I for one am happy prices are dropping. Looking forward to the dead of winter 07 prices

Fodder for the mind:

Foreclosures double in New Hampshire...

http://www.unionleader.com/article.a...d-0875397a89f7

10-30-2006, 12:05 PM	#1
onthebay Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 114 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	Real Estate Slump Does anybody have any views good or bad regarding the real estate market on the lake? Any success stories or strategys to employ for selling. We are getting close to finishing building our house on the lake and was hoping to have our townhouse sold (also on the lake) to help cover some of the cost. It has been on the market since July and no takers. There are about 5 units in our complex for sale and the prices all have just dropped about 10% from where they started in the summer. Once one drops they all drop to keep up. Still there hasn't been any sold. My view is that everyone is just waiting for the bottom to drop out so they can come in and cherrypick the bargains. I will be selling my Mass house in the spring to move up to the lake full time. I hope things turn around and don't get as bad as the last big real estate "correction" in the 80's.

10-31-2006, 11:40 AM	#6
donnamatrix Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonboro Posts: 833 Thanks: 24 Thanked 258 Times in 120 Posts	Prices Unreasonable I agree. The prices do not reflect the true value of the property, they have been inflated by the realtors and the sellers. And, of course, once you list a property at a high price, it's hard to lower the price considerably without making it look like something is wrong to any potential buyers.

10-31-2006, 04:28 PM	#7
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,678 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 639 Times in 290 Posts	And then there is the tax man As we get our December tax bills, we see the inflated price that the town's outsourced assessors claim as 100% of value and have to wonder, "well, maybe it is worth that much". __________________ -lg

11-01-2006, 02:45 PM	#11
onthebay Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 114 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	Listing The MLS #2603252 is listed on www.nhwaterfront.com. The price has been reduced to 207K but has not made it to MLS yet.

11-01-2006, 03:22 PM	#12
jerseyonbear Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 97 Thanks: 94 Thanked 7 Times in 6 Posts	No ML since July? Something is wrong with this picture. Agents are the ones who sell homes. The more exposure the better for the seller and MLS is most important. Are you working with a cut rate broker? Keep in mind all agents are paid by commission. Good Luck

10-30-2006, 12:37 PM	#2
donnamatrix Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonboro Posts: 833 Thanks: 24 Thanked 258 Times in 120 Posts	Slump It took us 8 months to sell our condo at Southdown. Finally sold it in June of 2005. We bought a house in Moultonboro. In speaking with any of the local real estate agents, I think they would all concur there is a slump going on, except in the very high end markets. Reading the MA and NY papers, it looks like the downturn will be fueling the "buyer's" market for some time to come. Sellers are paying condo fees and almost anything to entice buyers. Good luck!!

10-30-2006, 01:54 PM	#3
Dave R Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 2,985 Thanks: 246 Thanked 744 Times in 444 Posts	Interesting article about the what's going on in the US real estate market. Kind of depressing.

10-30-2006, 04:04 PM	#4
jrc Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: NH Posts: 2,689 Thanks: 33 Thanked 439 Times in 249 Posts	If you don't have to sell, wait. The next year will be tough. A lot of people who were just selling because the market was so inflated will just decide to stay. But, the people who have to sell for a variety of reasons will take the worst of it. If you follow the real estate prices in MLS you'll see a lot of people still haven't realized that the trend has turned. I've seen side-by-side pretty much identical properties where one is 40% lower. Worse yet, neither is selling. But remember the secret to success is buy low, sell high. Buying low is the hard part, it's tough to get in a market while everyone is running away.

10-31-2006, 11:15 AM	#5
boat_guy64 Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Windham and Meredith Posts: 225 Blog Entries: 5 Thanks: 33 Thanked 89 Times in 42 Posts	Interesting.....I've been trying to buy a condo for the past nine months but I am finding most sellers are still asking for July 2005 prices. Even though realtors acknowledge the 10% decrease in prices, most sellers haven't come to that realization. I've seen condos that have had a 300% appreciation over the past ten years but the sellers aren't willing to consider an offer 10% below the "peak" prices. Seems like a big stalemate is in progress.

10-31-2006, 07:56 PM	#8
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,117 Thanks: 1,328 Thanked 559 Times in 288 Posts	I don't think that prices will fall much until the next recession hits. When it hits, watch out below. It could be six months, a year or three years. Unfortunately, it will happen sooner or later since we are overdue.

11-01-2006, 03:35 PM	#13
Water Camper Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pembroke, NH / Laconia, NH Posts: 451 Thanks: 10 Thanked 207 Times in 89 Posts	No MLS I do believe the listing agent must be a paying member to list on MLS. They need more than just a Realtors license. I do agree that having your property listed on MLS is most important, especially with the current market. Bill

11-01-2006, 04:03 PM	#14
onthebay Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 114 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	Clarification The realtors website is www.nhwaterfront.com. The price change hasn't made it to MLS yet. It has been on the market including being listed with MLS since July.

11-06-2006, 10:36 AM	#16
4Fun Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 283 Thanks: 1 Thanked 66 Times in 38 Posts	I for one am happy prices are dropping. Now maybe, just maybe, we wil be able to afford something on the water. We missed the deals in the early 90s but will not miss them this time. We have still noticed the prices are still overpriced. Lots of people still holding on to the 05 prices. Looking forward to the dead of winter 07 prices

11-06-2006, 11:21 AM	#17
Paugus Bay Resident Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Gilmanton, NH Posts: 754 Thanks: 136 Thanked 93 Times in 51 Posts	onthebay, I think in your case, its simply a matter of supply. A quick check in MLS showed 25 condos (in Laconia) in the $200 - $225K price range. Overall, Belknap county sales for this year are off 15 - 20% from last year. To keep things in perspective however, last year was a very good year.

11-06-2006, 02:38 PM	#18
KonaChick Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 518 Thanks: 19 Thanked 62 Times in 15 Posts	I guess it depends on where you live on lake and what type of property you are looking to buy/sell...but I don't see any real estate slow down in our neck of the woods (Kona area). I would say the turnover in the immediate coves that surround us has been about 35% over the past 6 years with nothing from tear downs to McMansions staying on the market for more than a few months. The only thing I have noticed is that prices are slightly lower than they were during the internet bubble. We have a certain real estate agent who is always bugging us to list with him...saying he has many clients who specifically want the Kona area and will not buy anywhere else on lake. This could be a sales ploy though to get you to list with him. Anyway I just don't see it in our area of the lake. Have a good one

11-06-2006, 07:22 PM	#19
TomC Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Lakes Region Posts: 679 Thanks: 21 Thanked 92 Times in 61 Posts	Boomer's driving demand? There is a certain theory in the market that baby boomers, as they retire, will continue to drive demand for properties in "recreational" areas, ie along golf courses, bodies of water, ski areas, etc. They have the money and the idea is that they will dispose of their conventional suburban residences and acquire resort properties, thus supporting the prices of this more rare type of property. If this is indeed the case we may not see much erosion of lakefront properties as this is obviously in shorter supply than a generic house in a generic neighborhood... what do you think?

11-06-2006, 08:34 PM	#20
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,357 Thanks: 994 Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts	Baby Boomers Tom C, Sounds good to me. I believe there is some reality to what you have proposed. However, on the flip side, when economies go down, the second home is one of the first things to go. If the economy stays strong, I believe the baby boomers will have some positive impact on real estate prices in the region in the next five or more years. It is also believed that these boomers will be looking for warmer climates, but not hot climates. We lose on that variable. It is all one big balancing act between so many factors. I do not think it will be as bad as the last drawback, but time will tell. Long-term, lakes region property should be a good place to put your money, as long as you can cover most of the purchase cost without going to the bank. If you have a 80% mortgage at 6% interest and you are also paying high property taxes, the property would have to go up 10% each year for you to make anything. The high property taxes are a negative factor in the market when you try to sell. That said, there are very few, if any, more beatiful places on the planet than the area around our lake. That is why we bought here and intend to stay here. Good luck! R2B

11-06-2006, 09:38 PM	#21
onthebay Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 114 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	Timing I guess it all depends on timing. If we had been able to build the new house last winter instead of this spring we would have been ready to sell the condo when things were still moving. The idea was to move everything over when the house was finished and then sell the condo. It looks like we will try to rent it out for a year or so and see where the markets goes. On the bright side by renting it will then become eligible for a 1031 exchange when its time to buy the condo down south.