Pint of Beer price.

[baygo]

The current average restaurant price for a pint of New Hampshire craft beer is about $7. Please post your guess as to how much the same pint of beer will cost on the 4th of July 2022. I will give a $25 gift certificate to the member whose guess is the closest, unless my guess of $28 is closer.

[MeredithMan]

What would drive it up 4X in 18 mos? Crazy demand? Decrease in supply? Restaurants/bars going out of business due to the 'rona? I wouldn't spend $28 for a glass of beer; heck, I cringe at spending $12-15 for a nice glass of wine at a bar or restaurant, and I like wine.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

What would drive it up 4X in 18 mos? Crazy demand? Decrease in supply? Restaurants/bars going out of business due to the 'rona? I wouldn't spend $28 for a glass of beer; heck, I cringe at spending $12-15 for a nice glass of wine at a bar or restaurant, and I like wine.

Grain is the primary ingredient in beer. I see a rise in harvest expenses due to an increase in fuel and labor costs. Fuel and labor increase will also increase delivery cost of raw product to breweries as well as finished product to Distributor. Fuel and labor will then increase delivery cost from distributors to restaurants. Here come the kicker. Restaurants are about to experience a near 500% increase in there “front of the house labor costs”, that combined with increased fuel/energy will raise prices.

Also; there is a record $7 trillion in long term US debt due to roll over in 2021. With interest rates so low there will be very little interest in buying the debt which will in turn force the printing of more money to buy our own debt. This on top of COVID 19 stimulus will accelerate the spiral of inflation.

Now that the interest payment on our debt exceeds our GDP the politicians who have been kicking the debt can down the road will have to acknowledge the result is near. Effort will be made to collapse the currency by the elite earlier than later so blame can be cast upon the previous administration before the current administration hast to take ownership.

Back to my original request, what is your guess for a price of beer in 18 months?

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by baygo

Grain is the primary ingredient in beer. I see a rise in harvest expenses due to an increase in fuel and labor costs. Fuel and labor increase will also increase delivery cost of raw product to breweries as well as finished product to Distributor. Fuel and labor will then increase delivery cost from distributors to restaurants. Here come the kicker. Restaurants are about to experience a near 500% increase in there “front of the house labor costs”, that combined with increased fuel/energy will raise prices.

Also; there is a record $7 trillion in long term US debt due to roll over in 2021. With interest rates so low there will be very little interest in buying the debt which will in turn force the printing of more money to buy our own debt. This on top of COVID 19 stimulus will accelerate the spiral of inflation.

Now that the interest payment on our debt exceeds our GDP the politicians who have been kicking the debt can down the road will have to acknowledge the result is near. Effort will be made to collapse the currency by the elite earlier than later so blame can be cast upon the previous administration before the current administration hast to take ownership.

Back to my original request, what is your guess for a price of beer in 18 months?

I'm not a pessimistic as you. I'm going to say $12.
I've already gone back to drinking bottled beer because of the price craft beer adds to the tab at the end of the night.
I'd rather drink cheaper and leave a bigger tip.

[8gv]

During my formative years my friends and I drank warm, ill obtained, canned Heineken.

The price was right!

I'll guess $9.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by baygo

Back to my original request, what is your guess for a price of beer in 18 months?

Six dollars, but it'll be Chinese-brewed—and arrive in a can.

[DougNH]

One 1932-1964 Washington Quarter.

[SAMIAM]

Baygo nailed it

[baygo]

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Baygo nailed it

I appreciate the vote of confidence but I hope we’re wrong. We will be able to swing back and look at this in 18 months.

PS. Only guesses submitted before March 2021 are eligible to win.

[camp guy]

Baygo- In your opening post you posted the date as 2022, and later on you said guesses must be in by March of 2021. Do you want to clarify anything?

[baygo]

Originally Posted by camp guy

Baygo- In your opening post you posted the date as 2022, and later on you said guesses must be in by March of 2021. Do you want to clarify anything?

It would not be fair to someone who enters a guess today if someone could enter a guess in March 2022 therefore all eligible guesses must be in before March 2021

[tis]

Sam and Baygo, do you know if the $15 minimum wage goes through if you will have to pay waitresses etc. that amount despite tips?

[baygo]

Originally Posted by tis

Sam and Baygo, do you know if the $15 minimum wage goes through if you will have to pay waitresses etc. that amount despite tips?

This is why I reference the front of the house labor expense going up 500%. Straight from the mouth of Biden I heard that he will be eliminating the tipping wage. So yes we will have to pay the waitress or waiter $15 an hour. The sit down dining model cannot survive such an increase.

[Biggd]

I see a future where wait staff are human looking robots. No overtime, no tips, no paid benefits, no vacation, no sick days, paid leave, no maternity leave, and no attitude. Goggle Sophia, the humanoid robot!

Originally Posted by baygo

This is why I reference the front of the house labor expense going up 500%. Straight from the mouth of Biden I heard that he will be eliminating the tipping wage. So yes we will have to pay the waitress or waiter $15 an hour. The sit down dining model cannot survive such an increase.

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[baygo]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I see a future where wait staff are human looking robots. No overtime, no tips, no paid benefits, no vacation, no sick days, paid leave, no maternity leave, and no attitude.


Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

AI and Robotics have along way to go to get there. In the interim expect quality of service to decline a great deal do to the reduction in wage.

Start up costs will skyrocket. There’s an option for me too purchase a robotic greens mower for my golf course. The mower is $36,000 but the mapping and software are $125,000. A assistant greenskeeper makes about $41,000 a year in today’s market.

Once it’s robotic I probably won’t be eating out much.

[tis]

Originally Posted by baygo

This is why I reference the front of the house labor expense going up 500%. Straight from the mouth of Biden I heard that he will be eliminating the tipping wage. So yes we will have to pay the waitress or waiter $15 an hour. The sit down dining model cannot survive such an increase.

That's what I assumed and why I wrote that post. So tipping will be eliminated. Then you will have to add it into the price of the meals. Of course you can't stay in business otherwise. Why don't these fools realize you can only absorb so much and stay in business? I wonder how long these landlords will last since people don't have to pay their rent.

[WinnisquamZ]

I was reading many Governors are looking to pass state law which will make federal hourly wage law moot. Sununu has gone on record saying a $15 min wage would hurt NH


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[Descant]

Sometimes, It's easier when the tip is just added on to the bill. I recall staying at the Jared Coffin House (Nantucket) where breakfast was included. Prices were on the menu with a note that breakfast was included but prices were for tip guidance. Twenty + years ago: Eggs Benedict was $24. My first time in civilian Spain we had a great dinner and tipped 25%. Later , we realized that the check already include 15%. OOPs.
Last spring/summer, we, and others posting here, were tipping 50%. I'm guessing a $15 minimum wage will end up as a reduction in total income for many workers. Will people reduce meals out and impact restaurant gross income too? Will the menu say that due to new minimum wage, prices are higher and tipping is optional or not required? In an effort to keep people coming after many months of low patronage? This is a bad time in my mind to mess with the free market system.

[tis]

It's certainly a horrible time to be "messing with" minimum wage for the poor restaurants. They are having a hard enough time holding it together without any more government crap. My heart goes out to them.

[thinkxingu]

I'm interested to know how much prices would have to be increased to cover the extra $12-13/hr.? $.50? $1? I tried paying attention while eating out the other day and our waitress had three tables during a fairly slow lunch hour. She served around twelve dishes and around the same number of drinks. I lost track of dessert. At half a buck extra for each, there'd been an extra $12 in there.

My concern would be servers actually making less if diners felt they no longer had to tip.

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[phoenix]

my prediction is it will fall out in negotiations on the package and if it gets through at some point it will be phased in over years. Love the Bernie meme's

[SAMIAM]

Originally Posted by tis

Sam and Baygo, do you know if the $15 minimum wage goes through if you will have to pay waitresses etc. that amount despite tips?

Tis, I think it would force many small business' to close.
I don't think people would be willing to pay the huge price increase that would be needed to sustain the wage increases that they are talking about.
Even people with no skills make far more than the minimum wage......it's almost laughable to think of putting out an ad offering $7.25
Walmart, Lowes and many supermarkets are going to self checkout anticipating the coming change.
We would be forced to pay a 14 year old with no skills, applying for a summer job washing dishes, bussing or scooping ice cream, $600 per week.
Some chains have a policy of hiring retirees and people with downs syndrome......they don't make a lot but it gives them a sense of purpose .Those,and many seasonal jobs for our kids will be going away

[tis]

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Tis, I think it would force many small business' to close.
I don't think people would be willing to pay the huge price increase that would be needed to sustain the wage increases that they are talking about.
Even people with no skills make far more than the minimum wage......it's almost laughable to think of putting out an ad offering $7.25
Walmart, Lowes and many supermarkets are going to self checkout anticipating the coming change.
We would be forced to pay a 14 year old with no skills, applying for a summer job washing dishes, bussing or scooping ice cream, $600 per week.
Some chains have a policy of hiring retirees and people with downs syndrome......they don't make a lot but it gives them a sense of purpose. Those, and many seasonal jobs for our kids will be going away

I totally agree with you. So many businesses struggle as it is---

[Roy_Hobbs]

Originally Posted by baygo

The current average restaurant price for a pint of New Hampshire craft beer is about $7. Please post your guess as to how much the same pint of beer will cost on the 4th of July 2022. I will give a $25 gift certificate to the member whose guess is the closest, unless my guess of $28 is closer.

How are you measuring / where are you sourcing the average price? I'll guess, but am enough of a geek to want to know what the data source is!

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Roy_Hobbs

How are you measuring / where are you sourcing the average price? I'll guess, but am enough of a geek to want to know what the data source is!

The average was/will be established based on the price from 5 local restaurants that I frequent.

[Roy_Hobbs]

Originally Posted by baygo

The average was/will be established based on the price from 5 local restaurants that I frequent.

Thanks. I'll guess $8

[Outdoorsman]

Originally Posted by baygo

Grain is the primary ingredient in beer. I see a rise in harvest expenses due to an increase in fuel and labor costs. Fuel and labor increase will also increase delivery cost of raw product to breweries as well as finished product to Distributor. Fuel and labor will then increase delivery cost from distributors to restaurants. Here come the kicker. Restaurants are about to experience a near 500% increase in there “front of the house labor costs”, that combined with increased fuel/energy will raise prices.

Also; there is a record $7 trillion in long term US debt due to roll over in 2021. With interest rates so low there will be very little interest in buying the debt which will in turn force the printing of more money to buy our own debt. This on top of COVID 19 stimulus will accelerate the spiral of inflation.

Now that the interest payment on our debt exceeds our GDP the politicians who have been kicking the debt can down the road will have to acknowledge the result is near. Effort will be made to collapse the currency by the elite earlier than later so blame can be cast upon the previous administration before the current administration hast to take ownership.

Back to my original request, what is your guess for a price of beer in 18 months?

No matter who is controlling each portion of Govt, they will step in and subsidies anything and everything. Our children will deal with the consequences.

I doubt we will see that type of increase in our lifetime.

My guess is $10.50

[smith point boater]

Baygo - You could always do what P&G (and other CPG companies) do and change the size of the pour to avoid consumer sticker shock. If you are pouring 16oz drafts get 12 or 14oz glasses - so if a 16 oz is $8 the 12 would be $6 and 14 would be $7.

Not sure how I even feel about this (as a beer consumer)but if you're concerned customers will push back on price vs size then its an alternative. FYI - I didn't do any math to figure out if you the owner would be making more margin or more money this way as you would be getting more pours out of a keg nor did I factor in potential cost of having to buy new mugs

[garysanfran]

You can only sell beer for $28 if someone is willing to pay that. My unofficial poll says "No".

[fatlazyless]

For $8.81, the price of a single beer in a restaurant when you include the tip, you can get ... twenty four 12-oz cans of http://www.walmart.com/ip/Adirondack...ount/956329342 ... and just totally fuhgetabout the adult beverage ...

So, why is beer so expensive and why do people like to drink it ????? ......

[subaruliving]

Originally Posted by baygo

The current average restaurant price for a pint of New Hampshire craft beer is about $7. Please post your guess as to how much the same pint of beer will cost on the 4th of July 2022. I will give a $25 gift certificate to the member whose guess is the closest, unless my guess of $28 is closer.

According to my Calculation, taking everything into consideration. My educated number I come up with is $18.00. IMHO, 28 is a very high number and not a lot of people would be able to wrap their heads around it. Anything under 20 bucks is an easy sell.

[GusMan]

I realize that Baygo has great insider knowledge of the restaurant business, but if correct, this craft beer drinker will not be imbibing at restaurants very often... or perhaps not at all!

If that kind of price inflation is really coming, I think a lot of restaurants are going to be in serious trouble. Particularly since I believe substantial restaurant profits are derived from alcohol sales.

Good luck with that!

Best Regards,

Gusman

[jeffdawnnh]

I'll guess $13.50

[LakeWinniMom]

I will go with $9.75 and stick to drinking cocktails

[Grant]

$28 a pint?!?

Never.

Worst case scenario, maybe $10. And that is high, too.