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Old 03-18-2020, 12:46 PM   #1
TheRoBoat
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Default COVID 19 effects on summer economy

As I sit here under lockdown about an hour southeast of Gary, I have to say reading the forum the last week has been very interesting. And while he and I are polar opposites on the political spectrum, what we both do posses is a view into where NH is likely headed, as we are a week or two ahead of you out here. His perception may be different than mine.

While much of the angst appears to be focused on current events, I am curious to hear people’s opinions on what the summer economy is going to look like. Because from where I sit, I think people there need to prepare themselves that, other than islanders and locals, there will not be any real tourist activity this summer.

What we are going through here, and will be going through at least into the summer, is headed to NH.

NH cases doubled in a day, without the benefit of widespread available testing. Ditto Maine. NH is now arguably in the exponential growth phase, although that will not be known until more testing is available. NH has the oldest population in the country. And, as has been seen here, there is a strong resistance by many to adhere to simple and relatively painless recommendations to not spread the virus. All of those are factors that contribute to rapid spread of the disease. It’s already widespread there, you just don’t know it yet.

This is not a political issue, it is a numbers issue. This is not 2009 or any normal flu season, as the mortality rate for COVID is far higher, and it appears to be much more contagious. The country is built to handle situations like 2009 and seasonal flu from a medical perspective, year in and year out, and it did. I’ll even toss a big bone - it is most likely the credit for the successes of 2009 pandemic goes to GWB and the systems he had in place when he left office.

This is what the US is trying to avoid. Please read this article https://www.businessinsider.com/ital...choices-2020-3

Please don’t use misleading numbers from the past to downplay the seriousness of COVID. It’s irresponsible, and worse, it looks like you don’t understand the fundamental math that is driving the concern. Even people like me are hoping for Trump to get this right.

What do you think the summer looks like? Most every activity to make money this summer (other than locals/islanders) would probably be restricted. No Braun Bay, no restaurants, no concerts, etc.

Other factors to consider - nobody is going to have disposable income by the summer. Even if by some miracle it’s “all clear by Memorial Day” (I don’t think that is feasible), who at that point, is going to have money for the lake? And who will work there? Restaurants will have been closed for months - will a labor pool still exist?
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