McDude:
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I have also heard that Winni once emptied through Merrymeeting Bay (now called Alton Bay) and down the Merrymeeting River ...
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I looked at a topo map. Merrymeeting River is 15-20 feet higher than Winnipesaukee. I think that's too high a hurdle to overcome.
If Winnipesaukee were completely dammed at the Weirs, the lake would rise about 8 feet. At that height, a new outflow would go from Sanders Bay through the Lily pond into Paugus Bay by the Burger King.