Quote:
Originally Posted by ApS
Here's that same paragraph with my "bold".
If you change the 101 to 100, and the 29 to 30, you'll have the fraud that the acting deputy director proved with DNA testing at his interview. 
The rest is "Buzzfeed". 
As for a shortage of seasonal workers in the Lakes Region—or California's theme parks—consider February's count crossing the southern border.
February's apprehended count was greater than 76,000. Extrapolating for the year 2019, that'll be nearly a million new workers this year. 
The US workforce is 160 million people...BUT...US addictions are killing previously-eligible workers at the rate of 11 per minute, while the increasing rate of undocumented should be filling the gap for seasonal, low-wage, workers.
Shouldn't it follow, logically, that unless the new workers start selling deadly opioids, shouldn't there be an adequate number of workers in the Lakes Region?
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I disagree based on the context the numbers come from. The 100 people tested are already suspected of fraud; it is not a random sample from all of the illegal immigrants.
It's like this. Assume there are 50,000 people who were knowingly and admittedly speeding on I93 and have been caught (the illegal immigrants; I am fully granting everyone that that immigrants have come illegally and I am not taking a position one way or the other). Of the 50,000 speeders caught, the police suspect 100 of them are also drinking (the 100 families DNA tested). This group is tested and 30% are in fact drinking. One cannot conclude that 30% of the original 50,000 are drinking.
It's just like concluding that 90% of the people think President Trump is doing a good job when you base your sample on just those voters who identify as Republicans - or conversely, 20% think he is doing a good job if the numbers come from only those voters identified as Democrats (note that I made these numbers up just to prove my point). One cannot then accurately draw a conclusion about the entire population based on a select, prescreened sample.
As to the Buzzfeed portion of the article, that was in the original link; I am not taking a position about them one way or the other. If the whole article is read and put into context, the one line quoted by the original poster is taken out of context. Earlier in my career I taught middle school math, which included a unit of statistics. This would have been a great example for them to critique and discuss how numbers can be taken out of context.
As the the summer help issue, there are lots of signs out in the area - I hope everyone finds the staff they need to have a successful summer!