The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
About the current ice situation:
The Good is that the water is cold, in fact cold enough to freeze on a normal night without wind.
The Bad is that it will get warmer the next day or so, likely record warmth. It will also get windy. This will break up and melt most of the thin ice that is in the coves.
The Ugly is the wind. I do not see any stretch of time where it will be cold without wind between now and about Jan 6th. There is a short period around Jan 1 and 2 that might become more promising for the ice, but right now it does not look cold enough or calm enough.
Unfortunately, it might get uglier! It is my personal opinion that from mid January to late February, it is likely to be warmer than normal. It will still be cold, this is northern New England in the winter, but compared to normal, I see it on the warmer side.
For those technical folks out there, I see the trough near the east coast moving (retro-grading) westward and holding a blocking position near the Rocky's, giving them winter and us the warmer flow found on the east side of a trough, with a ridge over us or slightly to our east enhancing the northward flow of the warm air about a month from now. That is why I think it will be above normal here from Jan 20th to late February.
I really hope that I am wrong with this, but that is the way it looks to me at this time.
R2B
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