Quote:
Originally Posted by John Mercier
But not everyone in a ''red'' State is Republican.
Take the recent local elections for example.
Laconia has an all Republican delegation to the Legislature... local chosen.
But Dawn Johnson, one of those legislators, was soundly beaten by Andrew Hosmer.
In most States and regions, the parties are winning by narrow margins. So ''red'' or ''blue'' sometimes represents on very small number of voters compared to the total... and that does not even take into account the rather large number of qualified voters that do not vote.
Without firm statistics, we are just guessing. The next wave could hit New England very hard... and New England... except for one Senate seat is ''blue''.
We also know that cities tend to be more Democrat supportive than rural areas... we see that in every election.
So even though more people in the cities might be vaccinated, if they herd together they increase the chances of breakthroughs. Where a very rural person might never come into contact with the virus.
Very hard to paint a whole population with a brush without definitive data.
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These are great points, but I think you may have missed the last link I posted--it shows that the variance extends to the county level (so the urban vs rural point is addressed) and that "redder" areas are harder hit than less red areas (so the small margin point is addressed). Your point about the cities is also on target, but of course that would tend to increase infections among Democrats (so the trends towrd more Republican infections are even more significant)