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Originally Posted by TheRoBoat
Here are some thoughts.
Are they 2nd homes? I don’t think it matters, and if they are 2nd homes that’s probably worse for the status quo.
Let’s assume all are second homes, so no votes. First - that means all of what is happening is without the vote of, by far, the biggest block of voting real estate value.
Someone who has a $1.5M second home, is arguably not that far away from being able to say “You know, I’m done. Going to sell the main place and call it a day up in NH”. So all of these folks could easily become voters. And they will absolutely not vote the way you would like them to, even if you share the same party. They will get all the bells and whistles they want.
And however you look at it - these million dollar homes are all year round potential for spending, and a lot of it. Every move that appears to be happening is headed towards a year round service and tourist economy, which leads to exactly what Maxum and Winnisquam were talking about - Labor.
Baygo and Joey, amongst others, probably have the best view on this, since they touch on the issue daily. So rather than opine myself, I would like their opinion
As the region moves towards a longer “tourist and seasonal” economy, and all the labor and skills that involves, where are the people going to come from? We have seen the challenges with needing to import summer employees, and even then the very service businesses that we are talking about can’t stay open.
Is there a feeling that as the employment opportunities grow in the service industries, they will be supported by the existing population, or do you see the need for an influx of new workers? Is there a “tipping point” where seasonal can afford to live in the area? In other words, a bus boy can’t stay in the region with three months of employment, but at six it becomes workable?
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I'm sure there is a percentage of the population that is willing to do whatever to live in a particular place but the reality is these are not careers or even close to it. Most offer little to no benefits, are unstable at best, and this makes it incredibly difficult if not completely irresponsible to take on any significant financial burden such as a house or even a decent car when at any time your income could evaporate.
Not to say the entire job market in the area is comprised of this kind of work, but a good portion of it is.
For those that do move to these areas into a second home probably are doing so because they are sufficiently financially independent to the point they don't have to work. I have yet to meet anyone working at a landscape laborer that lives in a 1.5M waterfront house. They may OWN the company :-)