Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post

mswlogo · 10-21-2021, 02:20 PM

I appreciate SailinAway's concern and not letting our guard down.

But I don't think it's quite as bad as you say. Certainly could be better though.

1) It looks like NH might be peaking. See the chart below. We'll probably know better in a few weeks. COVID is known to have 2 month cycle. NH just might be lagging in that cycle. Note that UK is on the way up AGAIN. NH might get that wave come January or February. So even if we are peaking it doesn't mean it's the final wave.

2) Even though NH is not high on vaccinated scale across all ages. They are extremely high (98% have at least one dose that are over 65 years old !!). See the link below.

3) I have seen plenty of places in NH still using masks. Probably less than MA but still a significant chunk.

4) Be careful looking at just new cases. That has been a very misleading indicator. because if testing ramps up (say schools started mandatory testing). Detected cases goes up even if nothing changed. Look at death rates per capita to really know how we are doing. NH is still pretty low on that but still worse than July. Death rates also lag by 1-2 months.

Lot of data at this link. Interesting way up north is a problem. Most of the Lakes Region looks pretty good.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

10-21-2021, 02:20 PM	#3
mswlogo Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 660 Thanks: 196 Thanked 222 Times in 143 Posts	I appreciate SailinAway's concern and not letting our guard down. But I don't think it's quite as bad as you say. Certainly could be better though. 1) It looks like NH might be peaking. See the chart below. We'll probably know better in a few weeks. COVID is known to have 2 month cycle. NH just might be lagging in that cycle. Note that UK is on the way up AGAIN. NH might get that wave come January or February. So even if we are peaking it doesn't mean it's the final wave. 2) Even though NH is not high on vaccinated scale across all ages. They are extremely high (98% have at least one dose that are over 65 years old !!). See the link below. 3) I have seen plenty of places in NH still using masks. Probably less than MA but still a significant chunk. 4) Be careful looking at just new cases. That has been a very misleading indicator. because if testing ramps up (say schools started mandatory testing). Detected cases goes up even if nothing changed. Look at death rates per capita to really know how we are doing. NH is still pretty low on that but still worse than July. Death rates also lag by 1-2 months. Lot of data at this link. Interesting way up north is a problem. Most of the Lakes Region looks pretty good. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html