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Old 04-25-2019, 06:58 AM   #231
C-Bass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pricestavern View Post
Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.
The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.
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