Quote:
Originally Posted by Winilyme
[I]
I could be wrong but I'm not sure that's the way the odds work. Assuming it's true that you you have a 1 in 1,000 chance to contract COVID on a given day then I believe it's always going to be a 1 in 1,000 chance per day. Each day is a singular event. Your risk doesn't build up over time. If it did, then you'd eventually get to a point where you'd essentially be guaranteed to get COVID. Again...I'm not a mathematician so I could be entirely off base.
Are you going to post any photos of your new Flowbee look?
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I'm pretty good with statistics and probability. I have not seen Win's numbers, but his interpretation is basically correct if the world does not change over the next year or if the changes sort of cancel each other out. The odds do stack up against you over time
Statistically, this is similar to playing Russian Roulette where your chance of death is 1 in 6 in any particular round. You do not have to shoot 6 times to die; and you could shoot 10 times without ever hitting the bullet. But the chances are REALLY high that you will not be able to play beyond 15 or 20 rounds.
So I agree with Win that although every day is a fresh start, unvaccinated people in low vaccinated areas are taking a lot of risk with social interactions over a 1 year period.
I also agree with Wily that we should see some Flowbee pics