View Single Post
Old 06-12-2020, 07:38 AM   #32
Cal-to-NH
Senior Member
 
Cal-to-NH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Moultonborough
Posts: 63
Thanks: 3
Thanked 36 Times in 15 Posts
Default Possible, but not probable

In these times of waking up to systemic racism, all I am asking is to really think about your assertions and see if the theory "hangs together". This theory really doesn't
There have been 3 novel Coronavirus pandemics this century.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...-with-covid-19

In 2002 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) arose in Guangdong Province of China and has an estimated mortality rate of 10%. Alpha host was bats and human transition host was the pig

In 2012 MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) arose in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and has an estimated mortality rate of 35%. Alpha host was bats and human transition host was (most likely) camels

In 2018 COVID-19 arose in Wuhan province China and has an estimated mortality rate of TBD (2%-3.5%). Alpha host was bats and human transmission host is TBD (perhaps the pangolin).

There is no real reason to believe that there was a deliberate or accidental release of this virus any more than the other two. It is a fact that there is a BSL-4 lab in Wuhan. This simple fact and not another shred of proof has ever been offered other than that. There is nothing about this virus that makes it look like it was engineered (see: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele.../#df6e0053728c )(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-u-s-spies-say ) And there surely are a good number of BSL-4 labs hanging around this world (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosaf...L-4_facilities)

Here's the thing, a release from a BSL-4 lab has happened, and can happen again for sure. But before we go there, what are we looking at?
We have had 3 novel Coronaviruses outbreaks in 20 years, and does this one look any different than the other two? No. The other two were originally found and transmitted by bats, and so is this one. The other two had an intermediate host, and so will this one. It looks more similar than different. Finally I will refer you to the "some information that helps" posting showing the genetic relationship of this one to the others. Nothing special there, either.

So why no assertions of deliberate or accidental "seeding" for the other two? Well, maybe it's because there was no BSL-4 lab at the origin? OR maybe there wasn't such a negative and charged animosity going-on at the time between our two countries like there is now. Having spent time in China I can tell you that there are only two things that matter there -(1) Making money and (2) Assuring continued power and control by the totalitarian government. Neither of these objectives are met by a deliberate release.
Would an accidental release be covered up by the government? Well yes of course! The accidental release of the highly lethal Ebola-related Marburg virus (Reston variant) in the United States in 1989 was covered-up by the U.S. Government and not made public until 1994. And a virus from Africa spread by monkeys spontaneously arising in Virginia definitely doesn't seem natural. So although it could happen for sure, if it was a mistake they did a great job of picking the virus, duplicating other novel Coronavirus eruptions. Given the number of virus "nasties" they have there, if it was a random accident the stars aligned well to make it look natural - it could have been smallpox!
Cal-to-NH is offline