I have ice forming around my docks and in the coves around Christmas Island. The water is at the majic number of 39 degrees. The 'flip' or 'lake turnover' occurs at this temperature and allows ice to form, albeit dependent on wind and other conditions. The ice I see on the bay has broken up each morning just after sunrise. It won't be long before weather conditions, decreased wind and frigid temps, support ice formation that lasts.
For anyone who wants to read more about 'the flip' this article provides good information on what's happening to the lake water on these last days of autumn.
http://onthelake.net/fishing/turnover.htm