Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot
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If you're interested, I would really like to understand what your takeaway is from this article is.
Here's my understanding:
- Michael Levitt believes that looking at the rate of increase of confirmed positives or deaths is a good indicator that an outbreak is approaching the apex, and when this happens you can better predict the final numbers. He gives some examples of countries where he thinks this is the case: South Korea and Iran. He gives one example of countries where this is not the case: Italy.
- He says that the outbreak won't be as bad as some people fear, but doesn't give context to this - he could mean won't be as bad as the upper end models (i.e. Fauci's 2.2million estimate).
- He gives some opinion and editorial about reporting.
- He agrees that implementing social distancing and other mitigation measures are required
When you take his approach, and look at the day-by-day rate of increase of cases and deaths in the US, we look more like Italy right now than Iran and South Korea and so we are still in the 'acceleration' phase of the curve.