drawdown
There is some drawdown every year first to maintain flow downstream, and second to compensate for spring run-off and snow melt. Predicting rainfall, snow etc vs saturation in the watershed is difficult at best. When the watershed is saturated, 0.5" of rain can bring the lake up a couple of inches over a few days. The Dam Bureau used to start drawdown on Labor Day. They now do a better job of keeping levels up through Columbus Day IMO.
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