Quote:
Originally Posted by brk-lnt
Sorry, what I was trying to convey is that the cost to the homeowner is not representative of the actual cost, due to the government incentive. Thus if you want to calculate the "savings" of something like solar, you would really need to go by the actual system cost.
Or, to lay it out a little differently, government incentives do not necessarily scale. If someone pays half your restaurant bill, it might be cheaper than cooking at home, but that does not mean that overall dining out offers savings relative to eating in.
Go ahead, I always welcome informed debate and am happy to learn. Keep in mind I was trying to keep this discussion simple (but accurate) and not try to turn it into an ECON201 course.
To a certain degree, yes. IMO you need to consider broader factors if you are going to promote things like solar as a viable alternative.
I obviously can't debate that without you disclosing your numbers (which I am not asking you to do), but you would agree that your return rate as stated is far above most averages and norms? Or do you think that is the kind of return the average person should anticipate?
The risk part is very debatable, IMO. Tell me about risk at the end of the panel lifespan, after you have real data on panel failures/outages, damage, etc.
A "professional" financial analyst would factor the value of the investment based on the final return, not an early midpoint number. So far though, from what you post, your "investment" in solar is fairing well above average.
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The basic difference is that you appear to be evaluating the societal impact of solar instead of the impact to the homeowner. As Peter from NH Solar points out, the societal impact is much more than financial.
As my post opined, the individual homeowner should be evaluating the impact ONLY to himself when looking at the numbers. In this case, that means giving yourself full credit for the tax incentive. I was more than happy to have the government pay 30% of the cost of my system. To go back to your restaurant comparison--if a restaurant is having a 2 for 1 night, I would not stay home because the savings is artificial or a one-time thing, etc. From a financial perspective, I care only about the size of my bill.
My returns are typical for a system in eastern Massachusetts. I'm confident they are repeatable there, but I do not know the returns for NH or other states. A good local installer should be able to provide these quickly based on the individual homeowner's sunlight, roof, equipment selection, current electricity cost, and state incentives. The risk really is low--there are millions of these installed, with expected repair costs and lifetime performance well understood. I would compare the risk to a corporate bond--even at 5%, you'd be doing quite well in today's environment.