Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingScot
Disagree, from direct experience. Two years in, my solar panels are out-performing expectations that they will pay for themselves in 6 years. Then I will have almost free juice for another 20 years or so. Annual financial return is >15%. Similarly, my heat pump inverters have less than half the energy cost of my old oil burner and ducts (and I needed to buy new anyway).
Opinions on the forum are great and varied, but you really need to ask a good sales person to show you the numbers and spell out the savings for your own situation. If you trust the guy, go with it.
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I have solar panels as well, in one of the best spots for solar in the US. I anticipate my system will "pay for itself" in 8 years, which means the ~$24K we spent post tax credits will have been recognized in utility bill cost savings.
However... If we invested that $24K and earned an average of 7% (currently earning much higher on other investments, so this seems conservative), and tax the growth at our average 24% tax burden (based on last 3 years of returns), I would have ~$36K in 8 years. So now my panels need to go another 4-5 years to "break even".
After maybe 15 years we will "break even", but it's a downhill slide, as the $24K we put to the panels could theoretically be earning continual interest.
Or, looking at it another way, I could set $24k aside for utility bill pre-payments and draw that account down over time, working against earned interest, and in that case we might realize an actual break-even point closer to 12 years.
This is ignoring the tax credit for solar, which you can argue is an opportunistic thing you should take advantage of, or a factor that causes false calculations.
Either way, a solar system is rarely, if ever, an "investment" in terms of net financial advantage.
Your heat pump example is closer to my initial comment in that if you have a high energy use appliance that needs replacement already, going with a high efficiency version is less of a hit than replacing a perfectly working unit. Still, these systems overall tend to not provide immediate net savings, but you may be able to offset their costs over a decade-ish of time, assuming they last that long and do not require any expensive repairs.