For those with fishing derby interests (especially those who aren't here yet)... the temp on Black Cat Island this morning bottomed out at 4 F and is now 11. It has not risen out of the teens for the past 4 days and won't today, either. Overnight lows have been in the single numbers for the past 7 nights and near or below zero for the past 4 nights. Winds have been steady from the NW (blowing from Center Harbor to Alton) all week, gusting to 40+ mph in snow squalls, and otherwise continue at 15-20 mph sustained. Wind chills out on the ice are much lower than the official readings taken on the mainland where the wind speeds are less.
The ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Island is 9 inches and varies. Most of it is clear black ice blown clear of snow by the wind, and areas of hard windpack snow exist. Use caution when walking on it or bring crampons... the ice is good for skating.
For the forecast, I see what R2B sees - more of the same through next week. The weekend temps may actually climb out of the teens and into the lower 20s but fall back to the single numbers at night. A snow flurry or snow squall is possible at any time... straying from the White Mountains or even from the well-publicized Lake Ontario event of epic proportions.
The extended outlook shows the chances for snowstorms that R2B mentioned yesterday but the first one (Wednesday) now looks like it will try to follow its predicessors out to sea south of us after whitening New Jersey and the "Del-Mar-Va." A couple of the models paint a snowstorm scenario for CT/RI/Cape Cod. This is subject to a lot of change since the "embryo" for the storm is still in the Pacific ocean where very few weather instruments can get any readings from it. When it passes over land-based weather stations this weekend the computer models will get a better idea of its intentions. In any case, the northwest flow on the backside of the storm will reinforce the cold air as it leaves the area on Thursday and intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes.
"Mountain effect" snow on NH's peaks should kick into a higher gear next week. As R2B mentioned the ski areas really need some natural snowcover to balance out the mostly-manmade bases they have. There are increasing chances for region-wide snowstorms after the 14th as he said, but even aside from those chances it's starting to look like conditions will become more favorable for mountain-effect snow. The ski areas have been getting some already, and a few of those squalls have strayed down to the big lake from time to time.
R2B, safe travels, and have fun watching those race cars make left turns. If you focus hard enough on them perhaps it will help make a similar pattern in the wind on New England's coast!
