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Old 01-30-2007, 01:38 PM   #27
CanisLupusArctos
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No need to be a weather nut to comment here. Just share what you see/measure, offer what you know, ask about what you don't know, and remind people like me not to talk too technical without explaining in plain english along the way.

The Friday storm appears to be materializing - but once again I haven't seen the models yet. I'm hoping to take a look this afternoon.

This morning I awoke to Ch-6 Portland calling it "Snow Likely" on Friday (upped from yesterday's "Snow possible.") The Weather Channel made the same kind of wording change. In weather forecasting, wording is everything and the National Weather Service actually has official criteria for using certain words (and phrases) in public forecasts, to the point where they sound redundant. Example: "Snow likely in the morning, followed by a chance of snow in the afternoon." Such wording means the odds favor morning snow over afternoon snow, although both could end up happening.

Weather forecasting is a lot like betting - probability and chances play a huge roll. Being experienced definitely helps, but even champion poker players lose high stakes once in a while.
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