Feb 1st: Will it be ice?
I am getting more concerned about the possibility of a moderate ice storm Friday night. It should be warm aloft and it is likely to be cold near the surface. That usually means ice.
I have been thinking rain, but if the cold air gets in on Thursday night, as it is looking like it will, when the warm, moist flow gets established in the upper levels, the rain could freeze on the way down, meaning sleet, followed by ice when the cold air layer near the surface gets scrubed and thinned out.
As always, there is still time for a change to this, but I am getting more convinced that it is not going to be snow on Friday night. The upper level low will be west of us and the surface low looks to be over us or slightly east of us. That should produce ice or rain, for the most part for the lakes.
I will update this in the morning when we have more data from the models.
R2B
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