Quote:
Originally Posted by mswlogo
ThatÂ’s not whatÂ’s going to happen.
COVID opened the eyes of employers and employees that they can be more productive working from home.
LotÂ’s of people are moving out of the city, for good.
COVID also put a damper on public transportation, for long after the worst of COVID is over. Another reason to bail commuting to the city and just going remote. ItÂ’s also gonna make traffic worse for the ones that drive into the city.
A lot of people on the edge of retirement, decided to retire early.
It may not be as crazy as it was but I suspect the bubble wonÂ’t pop.
The people buying these homes are not the ones that lost their jobs due to COVID either.
|
No one really knows what's going to happen. I work for a large commercial real estate firm and a lot of time and effort is spent trying to project near and long-term trends. What folks in my business generally agree on now is that the pandemic has accelerated previously obscure trends and we are, in 2021, where many thought we could be five or ten years from now - more willing to embrace technology to give us new workplace options. Where companies were experimenting gingerly with remote working prior to COVID, they have in one year been literally forced to implement it.
Keep in mind that up until COVID, there was a long trend toward moving back into cities. An aging population in the suburbs didn't need the big home, maintenance was tiresome, commutes required to do anything were inconvenient, socially distanced neighborhoods were unattractive, there was a lack of entertainment and, in some parts of the country, less proximity to quality healthcare. A lot of this hinged on baby boomers entering their retirement years and young workers looking for opportunity and adventure. These dynamics haven't really changed in my mind and I give it a fair chance that the tide will turn post-COVID and people will once again gravitate toward cities for what they provide - social interaction and amenities that aren't readily available in the suburbs. Also, these cities will be plotting strategies to attract people back - chiefly I believe by becoming more environmentally conscious and by focusing on personal wellbeing. Humans are social creatures and I believe it's easier for cities to meet that need by fine tuning what they currently have versus suburbs having to reinvent themselves from scratch. I just don't see people in mass permanently leaving the excitement of the city for the calm of a suburb.
Perhaps we'll settle into some sort of hybrid end-state - one where we separate 'city' from 'workplace' and understand that they aren't necessarily inextricably linked. I believe many people will return to cities because there are countless reasons to enjoy living in one. And, yes, in those cities people will work - but they will do so from their apartment or condo or the park or corner café - and then occasionally head into a company's strategically consolidated office space for meetings and employee collaboration (which most agree is important for a healthy organization). Of course, these people will still need the periodic escape to the lake for a change of pace and perhaps in the new normal, they'll stay for a good deal longer than they would have in the past.