Quote:
Originally Posted by nj2nh
Apologies if this is a topic already, but I cannot seem to find it. Summer resident here.
We have a Ring camera facing the lake. The lake level seems rather high for this time of year. I worry that this will impact ice out. In 2021, ice floes damaged our dock and destroyed a retaining wall which we have yet to be able to fix. The dock is fixed, but I fear a repeat of 2021 if the lake level remains high.
Am I off base? Is this level normal?
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The lake is over a foot higher than its targeted level for this time of year (and close to summertime "Full Pool"). However, the actual level is subject to the weather. We have had a LOT of rain during the last few weeks. Further, the target lake level by the end of March is another foot lower than that of the end of December. In total, we are about 2 feet over the target for the end of March.
However, we have 94 days before that target. The Lakeport dam is currently discharging about 1000 CFS. That lowers the lake about 1/2" per day, about half of the maximum 1" a day the dam can achieve. At the current discharge rate, the lake would be down to the end of March target in mid February, well ahead of schedule.
Further, as the weather shifts from rain to snow, and the ground freezes, there will be far less runoff. The next two week forecast is for a foot of SNOW rather than rain. While weather is uncertain, it is very likely that rain and runoff will decrease significantly for the next 3 months. Once the lake starts to freeze, snow will accumulate on the ice and the impact of any moisture will be delayed until spring melt.
In addition, the reason for the drawdown is to accommodate the spring melt. If we continue to get warm temps and rain, there will be significantly less spring melt for the lake to absorb so if it was a little over target, it might not matter as much.
The dam can continue to drain the lake at the current rate or even higher for the next 3 months, easily achieving a 2 foot drop by the end of March.
There are a lot of factors to consider in managing the lake level but it's far to early to worry about the Spring levels at this point. The dam managers have been doing a good job in dealing with the weather. I would expect that to continue.