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Originally Posted by mswlogo
Great post.
Another thing to add to the unique situation is since the 2008 real estate crash is a lot of builders got out or went bankrupt. So there is a shortage of housing in general. It’s pretty hot in lots of places besides vacation areas. The low supply is a big part of rising prices.
A lot depends on “Pandemic 2.0”, and right now that’s not looking good at all.
I think a normal recession would not be so bad. But we could see the worst economic crisis ever a year from now if we see another COVID winter like the last. I think there is a 50-50 chance of that happening.
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A lot of these younger home buyers, under 35, haven't experienced a real down turn in their working careers. How prepared are they when they lose their job and no one is hiring, will they panic sell?
I think it is more likely people still try to unload their second homes to try and save their primary home. When that happens inventory sky rockets, no one can afford to buy, and prices fall.
Just how far they fall depends on the length of the down turn and how long people can hold on.