Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunrise Point
I always read your forecasts with interest. The next time that you and your friend are having a forecasting contest could you post his predictions as well?
It would be really fascinating, to hear your friend's forecast along with the old fashioned farming knowledge he used to arrive at his prediction.
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He is scheduled to come home from duty in Afghanistan at the end of the year, and I hope all goes well for his safe and timely return. It will probably be springtime before his mind gets back into New England. The last time we had a forecasting contest it was about thunderstorms on a summer day, and I'm looking forward to picking up where we left off! He mentioned things about the trees, something about the mood of the wind, and then more about the trees. I was basing it on the usual techie stuff I'd seen from the various computer models. But based on his observations of the landscape he predicted the storms would bypass us, 2 hours before their arrival nearby, and I arrived at the same conclusion, based on radar observations, an hour before the storms arrived in the area.
Now back to winter: We have La Nina in progress. We also have the sun, which has been stuck in low-output mode for the last few years. Some people say it doesn't affect the weather, but I find that hard to believe because without the sun, there would be no weather at all. When a severe weather threat approaches, a few extra minutes of sunshine can make all the difference as to whether a location gets a huge storm or not. The sun hasn't behaved like this in a long time, so I think this will be interesting to watch and see how it plays out.
Currently, the cold air masses responsible for yesterday's blizzard in the upper plains (and severe weather outbreak along its leading edge) is now pushing east and south. A primary cold front has reached the Gulf of Mexico, and a second cold front is now just to our west, approaching the Appalachians. These cold fronts are the leading edges of cold air masses. They have overtaken most of the nation's mid-section and as a result, frost and freeze alerts are in effect for a large portion of the Plains states, even into southern Texas. Many places are looking at the end of the growing season.
This event produced 1-2 feet of snow over Colorado before moving to the Great Lakes where it rapidly intesified. The season's only beginning. What can we make of this? It's hard to say, because this is New England, the meteorological wildcard of locations. And for everything we think we know about the weather, it's always ready to teach us something new. That's why I love watching it so much. All meteorologists, regardless of their degree, are wise to consider themselves lifelong students of the sky.
I'm still looking at maps, trying to get a feel for it all. If my buddy was here, he'd probably have a forecast already!