That's already happening but you will never see it on the smaller regional railroads or short line/terminal type railroads for a very long time if ever. The new engines are too expensive so they will alway buy 2nd hand and in some case 3rd hand. It will be another 30 years before you start to see an EPA teired compliant locomotive reach the hands of a short line railroad. As for the scenic railroads like the Winnipesaukee Scenic, you will never seee a change over. Part of the nostalgia of a scenic railroad is to re live a bygone era of old fashion railroading. The same reason the Conway Scenic operates a steam engine.
Here's a little tidbit on the EPA's requirements for new locomotives.
Non-road engines, including equipment and vehicles that are not operated on the public roadways, are used in an extremely wide range of applications, each involving great differences in operating characteristics and engine technology. Emissions from all non-road engines are regulated by categories.[17]
In the United States, the emission standards for non-road diesel engines are published in the US Code of Federal Regulations, Title 40, Part 89 (40 CFR Part 89). Tier 1-3 Standards were adopted in 1994 and was phased in between 1996 and 2000 for engines over 37 kW (50 hp). In 1998 the regulation included engines under 37 kW and introduced more stringent Tier 2 and Tier 3 standards which was scheduled to be phased in between 2000 and 2008. In 2004, US EPA introduced the more stringent Tier 4 standards which was scheduled to be phased in between 2008 and 2015. The testing cycles used for certification follow the ISO 8178 standards.
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