Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post - Stop HB443 - It will change how you can pre-buy fuel

Argie's Wife · 07-16-2009, 12:12 AM

From "the dog ate my homework" partyline... I had spent some time (not a lot but enough) typing out a very informative response to y'all only to have the forum hiccup when I hit the "submit reply" button. Please forgive me for now submitting the abbreviated version of my post - it's not to be rude - but it is late.

#1 For full disclosure: Yes, I am a member of Our Town Co-Op. No, I was not asked to post this thread or the information I'm offering. Furthermore, I don't wish to talk about any of the political controversy around Dan Barraford, his views or business (simply because that's NOT what this forum is for). My views are my own and this is a subject I have spent a lot of time researching. I did not disclose this information at the start of this thread simply because I did not want to get into any controversy or ruffle feathers.

#2 In my opinion, the problems with this bill are:
(1) legislature is dictating how businesses can do business;
(2) planning for the upcoming heating season (which starts around September) will be a four month window if this bill passes vs. the nine month window we now have when we can buy in January;
(3) town and school districts' budget will have to be based on the higher prices of the market and that will drive up overall budget costs - hence, more tax money will be needed to cover the approved budgets;
(4) oil prices are lowest in the first quarter of the year (see graph, below) but if this bill passes we will not be able to pre-buy at that price;
(5) oil companies will have to base supply on demand that is identified in May of the year and will have less time to project supply needs.

Here's the graph I mentioned in item (4). This illustrates prices of crude oil (red line) and retail prices (blue line) for four years.

CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH

Note: the prices are lowest in the first quarter.

If you want to check this tool out more and go further back to look at trends you can find it HERE.

MinkIslander: I agree with your statements and do understand the purchase/sales/distributing portion of the industry quite well. I also know from experience that contracts can be re-negotiated if there's significant drops in market prices. I saw several cases of this over the winter when prices went down. You may note on the graph I posted that prices will be up in May (vs. where they're at in January) because of the past trends.

The price increases will be due to timing - and isn't that so true in the oil market? Timing is everything - so what's the logic in our legislature trying to limit the buying time? Sorry but did a lot oil companies tank because of pre-buys or because of other reasons? (My research shows it's more due to consumers' with bad debt than anything else. I followed this closely over the winter/spring this year.)

What thought was given to those on fixed incomes or who receive fuel assistance, as the window for receiving that assistance is shortened by four months, if the bill passes?

Personally speaking, I'm less than happy with the recent tax increases that have been imposed. It seemed like there was very little notice about those increases and little time to respond - before we knew it, the increases were a reality. Well... what about this fuel bill issue? Here's another proposed change that doesn't have many positive things about it but trends show could cause the consumer to spend more than they have to AND further tells businesses how they need to operate. All this during one of the toughest economic times we've ever seen in this state. How is this good?

07-16-2009, 12:12 AM	#8
Argie's Wife Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Alton Posts: 1,908 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 533 Thanked 579 Times in 260 Posts	From "the dog ate my homework" partyline... I had spent some time (not a lot but enough) typing out a very informative response to y'all only to have the forum hiccup when I hit the "submit reply" button. Please forgive me for now submitting the abbreviated version of my post - it's not to be rude - but it is late. #1 For full disclosure: Yes, I am a member of Our Town Co-Op. No, I was not asked to post this thread or the information I'm offering. Furthermore, I don't wish to talk about any of the political controversy around Dan Barraford, his views or business (simply because that's NOT what this forum is for). My views are my own and this is a subject I have spent a lot of time researching. I did not disclose this information at the start of this thread simply because I did not want to get into any controversy or ruffle feathers. #2 In my opinion, the problems with this bill are: (1) legislature is dictating how businesses can do business; (2) planning for the upcoming heating season (which starts around September) will be a four month window if this bill passes vs. the nine month window we now have when we can buy in January; (3) town and school districts' budget will have to be based on the higher prices of the market and that will drive up overall budget costs - hence, more tax money will be needed to cover the approved budgets; (4) oil prices are lowest in the first quarter of the year (see graph, below) but if this bill passes we will not be able to pre-buy at that price; (5) oil companies will have to base supply on demand that is identified in May of the year and will have less time to project supply needs. Here's the graph I mentioned in item (4). This illustrates prices of crude oil (red line) and retail prices (blue line) for four years. CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH Note: the prices are lowest in the first quarter. If you want to check this tool out more and go further back to look at trends you can find it HERE. MinkIslander: I agree with your statements and do understand the purchase/sales/distributing portion of the industry quite well. I also know from experience that contracts can be re-negotiated if there's significant drops in market prices. I saw several cases of this over the winter when prices went down. You may note on the graph I posted that prices will be up in May (vs. where they're at in January) because of the past trends. The price increases will be due to timing - and isn't that so true in the oil market? Timing is everything - so what's the logic in our legislature trying to limit the buying time? Sorry but did a lot oil companies tank because of pre-buys or because of other reasons? (My research shows it's more due to consumers' with bad debt than anything else. I followed this closely over the winter/spring this year.) What thought was given to those on fixed incomes or who receive fuel assistance, as the window for receiving that assistance is shortened by four months, if the bill passes? Personally speaking, I'm less than happy with the recent tax increases that have been imposed. It seemed like there was very little notice about those increases and little time to respond - before we knew it, the increases were a reality. Well... what about this fuel bill issue? Here's another proposed change that doesn't have many positive things about it but trends show could cause the consumer to spend more than they have to AND further tells businesses how they need to operate. All this during one of the toughest economic times we've ever seen in this state. How is this good?