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Resident 2B · 01-29-2007, 12:09 PM

CLA,

I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be.

However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours.

At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything.

There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday

, not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System?

Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops.

Let me know if you see it differently.

R2B

01-29-2007, 12:09 PM	#23
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Ground Hog Day Storm???? CLA, I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be. However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours. At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything. There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday , not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System? Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops. Let me know if you see it differently. R2B