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Old 06-29-2008, 01:37 PM   #3
CanisLupusArctos
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Default No telling

The watch is in effect from 4 pm through late tonight. Other than that, it's hard to tell because we're dealing with summer thunderstorms rather than wintertime's giant blobs of precip that can take up several states.

They won't even hit every town, although many will get one. Those places that do get one will have a chance of flash-flooding... when you go from bare ground to a foot of water within a matter of minutes.

The general area of thunderstorms is moving from west to east. Radar shows some moderate showers over Vermont that are not growing. The main activity is a line of severe thunderstorms from southern Ontario to eastern Ohio... and those are moving east, growing with time.

If we don't get enough sun/heat before they get here, they will weaken as they approach our area but we would likely still get their rainfall and some thunder.

SPC and NWS-Gray are still nervously watching to see how much sun & heat we get this afternoon. All the other ingredients for severe thunderstorms are already in place here. There is currently a severe thunderstorm watch for far western NY state and only the minute-by-minute conditions will determine whether or not it needs to be extended eastward, and if so, how far.

In the meantime a flash flood watch implies the potential for sudden, localized floods. It is different from a general (area-wide) flood watch, which is issued for heavy rainstorms of greater coverage and longer duration.
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