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CanisLupusArctos · 06-10-2008, 09:53 AM

There is moderate risk for severe weather in New Hampshire today. Moderate is part of a very sensitive scale where "slight risk" is an average summertime severe weather threat, moderate is worthy of respect, and high risk is usually worthy of national news coverage.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has issued Tornado Watch #499 for all of Vermont, most of New York state, northwest Connecticut, and northeast Pennsylvania. This watch is in effect from 10:05 am until 6 pm today. It DOES NOT include New Hampshire at the moment, although I would not be surprised at all to see it expanded into New Hampshire as the day goes on. At the very least, I think we will see SPC issue a severe thunderstorm watch for NH... but they are the professionals when it comes to these things, not me.

Even if it is not... severe weather is a bigger threat today than we have seen in a while. I don't think we've seen a moderate risk for at least a couple years, but I don't know off-hand and it really doesn't matter.

What matters is for everyone to stay tuned to local weather forecasts and NOAA Weather Radio throughout the day and keep an eye to the sky.

A line of thunderstorms is now forming in New York state and has just passed Rochester. They are moving toward the ENE with an average forward speed of 45 mph. These storms are already producing large hail.

More storms will be developing as the heat of the day builds. The highest risk for tornadoes today is currently over Vermont, according to the SPC. Still, the probability over NH isn't much less.

Here are the probabilities associated with today's severe weather threat, as indicated by the SPC:

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 10 or more damaging wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 10 or more damaging hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Storms will weaken as they near the coast, especially the Maine coast, where a sea breeze has been keeping things in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures everywhere else are already well into the 80s and will top out in the mid-90s. Humidity is very high today, with dewpoints around 70 in most parts of NH. This extreme heat and humidity will be the fuel for the thunderstorms as a cold front arriving from the west provides the trigger.

06-10-2008, 09:53 AM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Tornado Watch #499 There is moderate risk for severe weather in New Hampshire today. Moderate is part of a very sensitive scale where "slight risk" is an average summertime severe weather threat, moderate is worthy of respect, and high risk is usually worthy of national news coverage. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has issued Tornado Watch #499 for all of Vermont, most of New York state, northwest Connecticut, and northeast Pennsylvania. This watch is in effect from 10:05 am until 6 pm today. It DOES NOT include New Hampshire at the moment, although I would not be surprised at all to see it expanded into New Hampshire as the day goes on. At the very least, I think we will see SPC issue a severe thunderstorm watch for NH... but they are the professionals when it comes to these things, not me. Even if it is not... severe weather is a bigger threat today than we have seen in a while. I don't think we've seen a moderate risk for at least a couple years, but I don't know off-hand and it really doesn't matter. What matters is for everyone to stay tuned to local weather forecasts and NOAA Weather Radio throughout the day and keep an eye to the sky. A line of thunderstorms is now forming in New York state and has just passed Rochester. They are moving toward the ENE with an average forward speed of 45 mph. These storms are already producing large hail. More storms will be developing as the heat of the day builds. The highest risk for tornadoes today is currently over Vermont, according to the SPC. Still, the probability over NH isn't much less. Here are the probabilities associated with today's severe weather threat, as indicated by the SPC: Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Probability of 10 or more damaging wind events High (>95%) Probability of 10 or more damaging hail events High (>95%) Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Storms will weaken as they near the coast, especially the Maine coast, where a sea breeze has been keeping things in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures everywhere else are already well into the 80s and will top out in the mid-90s. Humidity is very high today, with dewpoints around 70 in most parts of NH. This extreme heat and humidity will be the fuel for the thunderstorms as a cold front arriving from the west provides the trigger.