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CanisLupusArctos · 06-20-2008, 12:57 AM

We are currently in the winter-like pattern again, cool and unsettled. This same pattern in February resulted in 2 inches here, 6 inches there, until we had 43 inches of snow on the ground.

This time around, it's June so the freezing level is just too high - but we have had thunderstorms with hail, not because they've been vigorous enough to reach the icy heights, but because the icy heights really aren't that high right now.

This pattern will start to give way this weekend as a warm front approaches. When warm fronts approach, they have a hard time kicking the cold air out of the way because the cold is heavier. So it'll result in a long-duration wet event (just like February's bigger snows.)

Right now the timing on that long-duration event seems to be late Saturday through Monday sometime.

Once the front passes, it'll bring in the warm and more humid air. The coast will be the last to get it, because the ocean is still very cool at this time of year and it's been influencing the temps there all spring.

FORECAST REVIEWS:
When Kjbathe says a 30% chance of showers is as good as zero percent most of the time, that is correct. The 30% chance is applied to the entire forecast area and literally means that 30% of the forecast area will see showers. So, that also means 70% of the forecast area will see no showers at all. There's just no telling exactly where those showers will be located. It's a probability statement from math class. Remember Clint Eastwood's famous line about there being one shot, somewhere in his revolver: "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

Sometimes I think a child with a magnetic weathermap toy could out-forecast The Weather Channel. But it depends which forecaster you listen to. They have a few who are from around here, or who went to school here. They are: Jim Cantore, Heather Tesch, Bill Keneely, and I think Mark Mancuso. There may be a few others. When they talk about New England weather, they know what they're talking about. The rest of them.... not so much. TWC is good for other parts of the country, but New England weather is some of the least predictable and most localized in the world, so their "mass-produced forecast formula" doesn't do very well when applied to New England.

In general, WMUR-9 does a great job. Mike Haddad (weeknights) grew up in Byfield MA and studied meteorology at Lyndon State in VT. He's totally local. Their only drawbacks are the fact that they have an entire state to forecast, so they can't give full attention to any particular region.

I have found WCSH-6 (NBC) from Portland ME to be very good when it comes to weather. They do cover NH, but most of the time you have to pay attention so you can "adjust" their Portland forecast to figure out what it would mean for NH.

National Weather Service (www.nws.noaa.gov/er/gyx) does a good job from their local office in Gray Maine. Like most NWS offices, they tend to be conservative until the last minute.

Intellicast.com and Wunderground.com are really good internet-based services.

Finally, on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter site I post my own local forecast (when conditions warrant) along with self-updating forecasts for the lakes region written by NWS-Gray and Wunderground.com.

The WeatherCam site now has a link bar to the left of the weather data (underneath the image), which I added to make it useful as an internet start page by request of friends. The links open local/national/international news, sports, and weather sites in their own windows.

06-20-2008, 12:57 AM	#12
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Wet, then warm We are currently in the winter-like pattern again, cool and unsettled. This same pattern in February resulted in 2 inches here, 6 inches there, until we had 43 inches of snow on the ground. This time around, it's June so the freezing level is just too high - but we have had thunderstorms with hail, not because they've been vigorous enough to reach the icy heights, but because the icy heights really aren't that high right now. This pattern will start to give way this weekend as a warm front approaches. When warm fronts approach, they have a hard time kicking the cold air out of the way because the cold is heavier. So it'll result in a long-duration wet event (just like February's bigger snows.) Right now the timing on that long-duration event seems to be late Saturday through Monday sometime. Once the front passes, it'll bring in the warm and more humid air. The coast will be the last to get it, because the ocean is still very cool at this time of year and it's been influencing the temps there all spring. FORECAST REVIEWS: When Kjbathe says a 30% chance of showers is as good as zero percent most of the time, that is correct. The 30% chance is applied to the entire forecast area and literally means that 30% of the forecast area will see showers. So, that also means 70% of the forecast area will see no showers at all. There's just no telling exactly where those showers will be located. It's a probability statement from math class. Remember Clint Eastwood's famous line about there being one shot, somewhere in his revolver: "Do you feel lucky, punk?" Sometimes I think a child with a magnetic weathermap toy could out-forecast The Weather Channel. But it depends which forecaster you listen to. They have a few who are from around here, or who went to school here. They are: Jim Cantore, Heather Tesch, Bill Keneely, and I think Mark Mancuso. There may be a few others. When they talk about New England weather, they know what they're talking about. The rest of them.... not so much. TWC is good for other parts of the country, but New England weather is some of the least predictable and most localized in the world, so their "mass-produced forecast formula" doesn't do very well when applied to New England. In general, WMUR-9 does a great job. Mike Haddad (weeknights) grew up in Byfield MA and studied meteorology at Lyndon State in VT. He's totally local. Their only drawbacks are the fact that they have an entire state to forecast, so they can't give full attention to any particular region. I have found WCSH-6 (NBC) from Portland ME to be very good when it comes to weather. They do cover NH, but most of the time you have to pay attention so you can "adjust" their Portland forecast to figure out what it would mean for NH. National Weather Service (www.nws.noaa.gov/er/gyx) does a good job from their local office in Gray Maine. Like most NWS offices, they tend to be conservative until the last minute. Intellicast.com and Wunderground.com are really good internet-based services. Finally, on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter site I post my own local forecast (when conditions warrant) along with self-updating forecasts for the lakes region written by NWS-Gray and Wunderground.com. The WeatherCam site now has a link bar to the left of the weather data (underneath the image), which I added to make it useful as an internet start page by request of friends. The links open local/national/international news, sports, and weather sites in their own windows. Last edited by CanisLupusArctos; 06-20-2008 at 01:31 AM.