I think school enrollments are for sure a good indicator, but they skip the group of people that have no children or school age children.
I would think these are the people more likely to move, as moving kids to new schools / away from friends can't be an easy choice.
I keep looking at house sales. For example - single family homes / condos in Gilford from 200k to 500k are ALL under contract save three. Out of 26.
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...-200000-500000
I've never seen such a lack of homes for sale here. I've had realtors knock on my door and say they just sold two homes in the area for X, and I can get you Y right now cash no contingencies. Where the people selling their homes go will dictate if the population goes up or down I guess.