Quote:
Originally Posted by hazelnut
Evanstar,
The big problem here is YOUR analysis. You are NOT WRONG. I repeat NOT WRONG in your math. Once again stated another way you are 100% CORRECT. But this is where it ends. You are doing a MATH PROBLEM. It looks great on paper I applaud your efforts. However, the reality is there are not 775,000 incidents to track on Lake winnipesaukee in an 11 week period. And by incidents I mean boats traveling at ANY speed. The shear volume of craft that you suggest are using the waters during this period to create the supposed 2,200 "speeders" or does not exist. I explained in it a literal manner and I believe Woodsy has explained it in a finite matter extremely well. It seems that you can't comprehend this because you disagree with the numbers. For a moment forget the debate and just pretend we are debating the volume of traffic on the lake. Now do you really think that your numbers represent an accurate example of the volume of craft on the lake in a 10 week period?
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Extrapolation can, and usually is, the absolute killer in analysis. Especially true for non linear data. Take this in a real world example.
One of the most congested and “busiest areas of the lake” is not going to be where boats are going to be found traveling the fastest. 29% of the boat speeds in the survey were recorded in this area, which represents a tiny percentage of the lake, with conditions that at not the average lake conditions. This throws the averages way off by adding such a large number of boats that are traveling at slower speeds than they would be in a less congested area.
Of course it throws off the averages. When dealing with Winni, it should be rather obvious that congested areas would result in lower speed, that's what the skippers Are Supposed To Be Doing!
I would expect that at random, conditions aside, boats would be clocked at a higher average speed out in the Broads than around the Weirs. I would also expect boaters to be going slow in a NWZ. So you argue that by having a larger percentage clocked in congested areas throws off the averages? The look at the raw numbers of boats. I'd expect the number of boats in the Broads to be less than Paugus Bay on the weekends, that might just be why those areas are called congested in the first place.
I also think the subsequent extrapolations you did prove out this point. If you did a study of boats randomly out on the "less congested" area, I'd think you'd find out what's really going on. Not that many boats, and yes, a higher percentage going faster, depending on conditions, than they are in the busy areas. That would not shock most people, as it didn't shock anyone that's been out on the lake that speed generally goes down given the amount of boats in the area. For those that are running to close to others, well, there are rules about this are there not?
If your intent was to show that the average speed increases somewhat by throwing a larger percentage of boats from say, the Broads, into the mix, well I'd have to say how many D's in Duh?