Evenstar...
OH MY HEAD! Where do I begin???
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Originally Posted by Evenstar
I've never paddled on Lake George, in MA or in ME, but no power boat has ever come within 15 feet of me that was going faster than headway speed. But we're talking about NH laws here...
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So where on the ocean have you paddled? Where else other than NH Inland waterways?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evenstar
Look, I haven't kayaked on Winni enough to memorize all the light numbers, and I don't take my map of the lake to my university. I asked if the broads were covered and no one ever stated that they were, so I figured that they were not. My error - but it was an honest one..
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If you read and UNDERSTOOD the NHMP Speed Survey Report you would have know that the Broads was included in the survey. Just about every place a boat had the room to go fast was included in the survey.....
Light #50 to the Weirs Channel is the Upper 2/3 of Paugus Bay and it is quite the speed zone... and arguably one of the BUSIEST areas of the lake! There are two big yacht clubs, a huge development and 3 of the lakes biggest marinas are at the end of Paugus Bay.... Irwin Marine, Lakeport Landing Marina, and Paugus Bay Marina!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evenstar
The study is so flawed that, for all intents, the data collected is totally meaningless. Basically, according to research methodology standards, the Marine Patrol did nearly everything wrong, like informing the public that a study was being done. To do statistical analysis, you need to know what percentage of a target area was part of a study. The report gives no percentages at all. It never gives what percentage of the lake was included in the study, or even what percentage of the total boating hours were included in the recording of boat speeds. And it doesn’t include the margin of error.". |
The NHMP conducted a Speed Survey, intended to take a SNAPSHOT of what was actually going on Lake Winnipesaukee! It was not a detailed study on the number of boats on the lake at any given time, nor was it intended to be! This survey was UNFUNDED and conducted during regularly scheduled patrols on the busiest sections of the lake! It is a very accurate measure of what a NHMP officer might encounter on any given day during a regular patrol shift!
However, I am going to show you the absolute FLAW in your logic equation! At the risk of making you look foolish, I am going to beat you over the head with your own math! I am going to use your equation and plug in the numbers for boats traveling under 50 MPH!
Your saying that over an 11 week span (770 Daylight Hours) there were approx 2,200 boats traveling greater than 50 MPH. 11 boats clocked over 50 MPH divided by 2% = 550 boats. (11/.02 = 550). You then assume that the number needs to be multiplied yet again because the speed zones only covered 25% of the lake... (and YOUR being generous @ 25%) 550/.25 = 2200 boats going faster than 50MPH over that 11 week span.
Assuming your formula is correct... Lets plug in the numbers for the boats going less than 50 MPH....
3841 boats clocked UNDER 50 MPH divided by 2% = 192,050 boats. (3841/.02 = 192,050). You then assume that the number needs to be multiplied yet again because the speed zones only covered 25% of the lake... (and again YOUR being generous @ 25%) 192,050/.25 = 768,200 boats going LESS than 50MPH over that 11 week span.
11 weeks = 77 days (770 daylight hours)
768,200 boats going less than 50 MPH
2,200 boats going greater than 50 MPH
768,200 + 2,200 = 770400 boats total during the survey
770,400/77 = 10,006 boats daily using Lake Winnipesaukee
768,200/77 = 9977 boats daily traveling less than 50 MPH
2,200/77 = 29 boats daily traveling greater than 50 MPH
29/9977 = .003% of the boating population travels over 50 MPH any given day of the survey!
You can apply YOUR Research Methodology ANYWAY you so choose. the problem with your math is....
THE PERCENTAGES DON"T CHANGE!!!
Do you seriously think that there were
770,400 BOATS on Lake Winnipesaukee during those 11 weeks?? I dont think anyone is going to believe those numbers! I think you might want to ask the University for a refund!
Woodsy