The January thaw is underway in NH. Highs across much of the area were in the mid- and upper-40s while the lake ice kept Black Cat from getting out of the 30s. The high topped out at 39 degrees today. In summertime fashion, there are air quality alerts issued for unhealthy air pollution levels in southern NH and coastal Maine for tomorrow. The southwest flow that is providing all this warm air is also bringing us all the air pollution of the east coast.
This warmup will last for a couple more days until a cold front comes to our rescue Wednesday night. It will not be an arctic front, but it is currently plowing through a great deal of abnormally warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. This is touching off a nearly-unprecedented and widespread January tornado outbreak from Wisconsin and Michigan all the way down to Oklahoma. The severe storms are maintaining their tornado-producing energy even during these nighttime hours as I write this.
The jury's still out, on how much of this energy will be left in the front when it crosses NH on Wednesday. It will probably not be anything close to the devastation we're now seeing from Wisconsin to Oklahoma, but this kind of weather system in mid-winter has been full of sudden surprises for the Lakes Region in the past. There could be strong wind, so stay tuned to later forecasts if you'd be affected.
In the warm spell for the next 2 days I think the lake itself will probably not get any higher than 45, due to the lake ice and the 33-degree water that extends down several feet below the surface.
After the front passes we'll lose this unseasonably warm weather and be in the 30s. A coastal storm on Friday (perhaps mountain snow and coastal rain?) will help to bring down 'normal' cold air for the weekend and early next week.
The latest forecast from the local
National Weather Service office is always on the
Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter page.